NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 9
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Buffalo Bills (31.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Dallas Cowboys (29.0) vs. Denver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers (28.3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
4. Baltimore Ravens (27.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
5. Kansas City Chiefs (27.3) vs. Green Bay Packers
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 9
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
1. Chicago Bears (16.8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (17.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
3. Atlanta Falcons (18.0) @ New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers (18.5) vs. New England Patriots
T5. Denver Broncos (20.0) @ Dallas Cowboys
T5. Houston Texans (20.0) @ Miami Dolphins
Popular Game Stacks
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs, GB -1, O/U: 55.5
The Packers travel to Kansas City for the game of the week that is sure to be popular in DFS tournaments in Week 9. It’s by far the highest total on the main slate and features a spread of just one point, suggesting there’s minimal risk for a blowout in this one. As a result, look for this game to carry heavy rostership in tourneys, especially considering the pricing on some of the stars in this one.
On the Packers’ side of the ball, Davante Adams ($8,200) and Aaron Jones ($7,200) have really weak price tags for their upside, and on the K.C. side of the ball, Travis Kelce ($7,000) and Darrell Williams ($5,700) are extremely affordable bring back options. Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers seem appropriately priced, but they’re not unattainable in tournaments based on their pricing. Given this game environment and pricing, we can expect it to be popular, but is the popularity warranted?
Over the last month of the season, Kansas City has averaged 5 yards per play or less, and they rank dead last in turnover differential. For reference, both the Jets and Lions are averaging 5 yards per play, per NFL Network’s Gregg Rosenthal. In this four game sample, Chiefs games have hit the under three times, and they’ve gone under their implied team total three times as well. If Kansas City can’t get back on track, there’s more downside to this game than the market implies.