NFL DFS Vegas Report for Divisional Round (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives. Every Tuesday on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast, we give a “state of the main slate” which briefly highlights some of the findings in this article. For the full look, make sure you get in on The Ultimate DFS Pass and check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for the Divisional Round.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Team Implied Totals for the Divisional Round
1. San Francisco 49ers – 30.0
2. Detroit Lions – 27.3
3. Baltimore Ravens – 26.3
4. Buffalo Bills – 24.0
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 21.3
6. Kansas City Chiefs – 21.0
7. Green Bay Packers – 20.5
8. Houston Texans – 17.3
Saturday Slate
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens, BAL -9, O/U: 43.5
The Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon when the AFC South champs travel to Baltimore for a matchup against the league’s MVP and the Ravens. The Ravens are coming off the earned bye week as the #1 seed. It is worth noting that since 2003, teams off a bye in the Divisional Round have gone 44% against the spread. I bring that up just to note that this line was BAL -9.5 on Tuesday and has since moved in favor of the Texans. On Monday, the line moved from BAL -8.5 to -9 then eventually -9.5 prior to getting bet back down, so this number does appear to be getting pretty efficient as we get closer to kickoff.
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