NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 13, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.

If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.The Expected Points Tiers of the NFL in 2023.

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders

Miami’s offensive machine needs context whenever we see them front-and-center for DFS. They rank #1 in yards per play (6.9), the highest total for any NFL team since 2000. Honestly, that was as far back as I decided to research but you get the point, right? Efficient, big plays are waiting to happen and the Washington defense is quite generous in this department allowing the most passing yards in the NFL, 2nd highest yards per attempt (7.5), and a whopping 28(!) passing TDs in their 12 games played. Tyreek Hill will be chalk city but rightfully so against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. Maybe a better question to ask is what does Tyreek need to do to fail? By fail, let’s define that as failing to 3x on his pricetag. In a tournament, 3xing is pretty standard when you think about your salary constraints and what the rest of your roster needs to do to put up 180-200+ DK points in GPPs.

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Week Matchup DK Salary DK Points X?
1 @ LAC $8200 47.5 5.8
2 @ NE $8800 15 1.7
3 vs DEN $9000 33.7 3.7
4 @ BUF $9200 10.2 1.1
5 vs NYG $9000 35.1 3.9
6 vs CAR $9300 31.3 3.4
7 @ PHI $9400 25.8 2.7
8 vs NE $9500 28.2 3.0
9 @ KC $9400 13.5 1.4
11 vs LV $9300 33.6 3.6
12 @ NYJ $8600 28.4 3.3

Folks, that is unfair. This man (sorry this super-hero) 3xed on his salary SEVEN out of his 11 games this year. Unfair. The games he didn’t? The Dolphins put up just 24, 20, 17, and 14 points while losing three of those four games. In Miami’s wins this year, Tyreek is averaging 11.3 targets, 139.5 receiving yards, and 1.1 TDs per game. Are you fading that this week? It would give you massive leverage in tournaments but the data suggests he might be the best chalk to eat this year.

The rest of the Dolphins file in behind Tyreek with Tua Tagovailoa (0.78) and Raheem Mostert (0.26) sporting the best correlation with Tyreek over their last 16 games played. Double-stacking those three will cost you 49.2% of your budget so you need 90+ points from the trio. Is that doable? It’s happened three times but not since Week 6.

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