NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 16, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 16 Pace of Play CSV.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
This feels like a 90s NFL matchup between two hard-nosed head coaches: Tomlin vs. Campbell. The Steelers currently lead the AFC North while the Lions are fighting for their playoff lives with just a 15% chance if they drop this one at home. Lions games this year are averaging 55.2 combined points per game (#2 in the NFL) and since their Week 8 bye, their games have hit the over in six of their last 7 contests. They rank 1st in points per game (30.6) and 1st in average margin of victory (+16.8) giving credence to Lions onslaughts this week. The Steelers, on the opposite end of the spectrum, rank dead last in offensive plays per game (55.2) with Aaron Rodgers averaging just 19 completions and 199.5 passing yards per game. It’s a small pie to work with but there are reasons to look Pittsburgh’s way as the game total was bet up to 51.5 in the last day.
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