NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Conference Championships
And then there were four!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For the Conference Championships, I’ve sorted the remaining eight team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Conference Championships Pace of Play CSV.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
For a team known for its defense, Denver games have been barn-burners all year long capped by an OT victory last week against Buffalo. The Broncos averaged 65 offensive plays per game (5th most in the NFL) in the regular season and ranked 6th in seconds per play. We do need to adjust some of the PROE metrics knowing backup QB Jarrett Stidham hasn’t attempted a pass since Week 18 of 2023(!) and the AFC Championship Game will have been 749 days since his last pass attempt!
New England games averaged 47.6 combined points per game (12th most) while Denver (41.9) sat down at 23rd. Both teams ranked in the top-5 in terms of PROE but we expect a much more muted approach this week as reflected in the GPS score (2.75/5) and game total. Call it an easy schedule or whatever else you want but from Week 14 on, the Patriots saw the 2nd lowest opponent (-13.5%!) in the NFL.
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