NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.0)- O/U: 48.0
Before recent breaking news that Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID, Betz detailed on Tuesday’s podcast, there are a couple of points of caution worth bringing up before we go full-game stack here. Everything about the way Kansas City plays illicits volume. They rank 3rd in total plays per game and Mahomes is on pace for 690 pass attempts! They still convert 3rd downs at the highest rate in the league (59%) so despite their turnovers, there’s a lot to like obviously. Green Bay, on the other hand, often plays slow and methodical even sporting a sub-60 percent pass rate when trailing. Jordan Love might be a cheap option on both sites ($4400-DK, $6000-FD) but it’s hard imagining him being a top-end scorer for GPPs.The game script that would sink this game is Kansas City jumping out to a lead and the Packers staying within a score but the game hits the under. In was you hadn’t noticed, the Chiefs haven’t covered the spread in 6-of-8 games and their game totals have hit the under in three straight despite those monster 50+ totals. Aaron Jones is a true differentiator in my book at his salary and with the type of spike games we’ve seen from him. If you wanted to move past this game, I wouldn’t call you crazy. Finding cheaper stacks or going with one of the RBs (don’t forget Darrell Williams) is not a bad route to take.
The KC side is also cost-prohibitive in many ways taking up more than 30 percent of your salary on DraftKings. For GPPs, you need that pairing to hit at least 70+ points. Thus far, Mahomes & Tyreek have done it twice but Rodgers & Adams haven’t accomplished that yet as a stack. With this news, it will trend downwards in popularity. The real enigma is Travis Kelce. He put up an absolute dud on Monday night football and is the most expensive TE on the slate. My early stance is to play him at roster percentage in GPPs but there are other TEs I like in the salary savings range.