NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with. Here’s a color-filled overview of the slate looking at team implied totals and neutral situation pace. Keep in mind some of these pace stats are flawed when we factor in teams that have played behind and what teams are accomplishing on the ground vs. the air. I detail some of those discrepancies as well as certain trends below.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (+4.5)- O/U: 50.5
These familiar NFC South foes carry the highest total of the week but there’s two divergent ways of looking at this game history would tell us. Last year, Tom Brady underwhelmed in both games throwing for five INTs in the regular season and reversing course in the playoffs with three total scores. This has all the makings of an under IF the Saints control the clock at home. Jameis Winston might be in a revenge spot but his play and Sean Payton’s propensity to put him in manageable situations needs to be noticed before we go any further. The Saints are throwing the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL and they run the fewest offensive plays per game. THey’ve been fortunate moving the chains sporting the 3rd highest 3rd down success rate which you can chalk up to Alvin Kamara. He’s the entire offense and its not even close. I do think Marquez Callaway has flashed enough where he warrants being in your GPP pools.