NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 6, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients from 2021 to 2022.
As you’ll notice, I added EPA (Expected Points Added) to our colorful spreadsheet as five games start to give us somewhat of a trend of how these teams are functioning. Keep in mind, we still need more data, and big games will skew some things. If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Make sure to check out the DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week. Keep in mind we focus on the “main slate”
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins
At this point, we need to pencil the Dolphins in every single week as must watch TV. They have 93(!) plays of 10+ yards in just five games and the chunk gains are what makes buying into them so easy. Their pace isn’t exactly blistering (27th in pace) but their efficiency is off the charts ranking #1 in points per play and Tua’s 9.8 yards per attempt is pacing the league. The bigger question is does this game stay competitive? Miami ranks 6th in neutral pass rate but they rank just 21st in plays per game. In other words, if this game is out of hand early, you could see them mail it in the 2nd half especially with a banged up running back room. Raheem Mostert should be the highest rostered player on the slate in a prime matchup against a Carolina defense ranked dead last in EPA per rush attempt and rush DVOA. It’s hard poking holes in his projection but gaining leverage on the field is essentially saying he hits 15-20 points but other RBs overtake him on this slate. You also could assume the TDs flow through Tua and 3-4 scores are distributed between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
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