NFL DFS Monday Night 2-Game Slate (Fantasy Football)
Week 14 of the NFL season comes to a close with a double header on Monday Night Football. Below are the game previews, our top plays and some leverage thoughts for tournaments. Best of luck tonight, and catch us in Discord at 2:30 pm ET for a live show where we’ll chat through the strategy for this slate!
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins, MIA -14, O/U: 46.0
The Titans travel to South Beach as 14-point road dogs in a game featuring a healthy 46.5 total. To be fair, most of that is being driven by the Dolphins’ slate-leading 30.5 implied team total. Anyone using optimizers to build for this slate is likely to see multiple Dolphins pop up in lineups for obvious reasons. They’re the NFL’s most efficient offense, ranking #1 in yards per play and points per play and now catch a Titans defense that ranks 28th in EPA per play over the last six weeks. This Tennessee defense will also be down key starters, CB Kristian Fulton and DT Jeffery Simmons. Leaning into the Dolphins side here just makes so much sense. They’ll be chalk, but it’s really hard to poke any holes, especially when there really aren’t great pivot options on a small slate.
As for the Titans, Bananarama will take on the NFL’s #1 ranked defense in both EPA per play and pressure rate over the last six weeks. Against pressure, Levis is completing just 39.1% of his passes (42nd of 46 qualified QBs). Surely, we know the Titans want to hide Levis whenever possible, but the issue is they’re two-TD underdogs, and opponents facing Miami over the last month and a half are throwing at the league’s sixth-highest rate. We expect Levis to drop back plenty here in a negative game script, which makes the Miami DST an exciting play while making the TEN pass catchers shaky GPP plays against a Miami secondary that’s middle of the pack in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs over the last six weeks.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants, GB -6, O/U: 37.0
Go Pack Go? Suddenly the Packers are knocking on the door of a post-season birth thanks to their offense coming to life in recent weeks. They’ve scored 23+ points in three straight games and 19+ in five straight. On a small slate, we expect at least one Packer to be in the optimal lineup on Monday night. The Packers won’t have Aaron Jones (MCL) or Christian Watson (Hamstring), opening up plenty of value on the Green Bay side in a plus matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 29th in yards per play allowed this year. They’ve also got several key players questionable on the defensive side of the ball – both DTs Dexter Lawrence and A’Shawn Robinson are battling hamstring injuries while Swiss Army Knife safety Isaiah Simmons is questionable with an ankle issue.