NFL DFS FanDuel Thanksgiving Day Slate Picks (Fantasy Football)
For the Thanksgiving Day Slate, Betz and I broke down this 3-game slate on the Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast.
I’m going to take some of our analysis a step further to give you my preferred cash and GPP picks. The one caveat I will give is that with so much variance in this 3-game slate, I lean towards playing more tournament-style contests. Everyone is going to be rostering certain players so getting weird is part of the fun. Take the cash game plays as good chalk to eat and consider the GPP plays as an opportunity to get different and gain leverage. Utilizing 4 or more players from the same game is how you become overweight compared to the field.
- This sentence isn’t hard to write: Josh Allen is the best fantasy QB on the slate. His combination of floor and ceiling is unmatched and the Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last month. We love the Bills because of their intentions to pass until it goes out of style. Allen ranks 4th in both pass success rate and expected points added per pass attempt. Don’t overthink it. But also consider in tournaments how you can get different with BUF stacks. Dawson Knox and Emmanuel Sanders are my two favorite pieces this week apart from an obvious Stefon Diggs.
- Dak Prescott is coming off one of his worst performances of his career but he should be the 2nd most popular QB on this slate by a wide margin. The Raiders defense recently has cratered allowing the ninth most fantasy points to QBs over the last month. Dak is averaging nearly five deep attempts per game and although he likely will be without his top two WRs, it might mean he will have to make up for it this week with most rushing production. His floor is 18+ fantasy points but 25+ is more than on the table in the highest over/under on this slate. Prescott + Dalton Schultz feels like easy money to me.
Listen, Allen & Prescott are clearly the best two plays … and its not even close. But I will add in these two QBs and explain how I would use them in stacking.
- If I did want to get nuts and “send in the Carr”, double-stacking him feels inevitable. Derek Carr offers nothing on the ground so stacking him with Hunter Renfrow or Darren Waller is obvious. But it’s the third piece of this Raiders team that I would be interested in that will come in much lower in roster percentages. Is it Zay Jones who is quietly out-snapping Bryan Edwards? Is attaching it Carr with Kenyan Drake? This is more of a volume play as Dallas is seeing the 9th highest pass rate and surrendering the 10th most yards per play.
- You might not want to hear me bring up this name, but Trevor Siemian is producing for fantasy and a Saints offense normally bent on rushing the ball is flipping the script and attempting 40 passes per game over the last three weeks. You need Siemian to be the QB1 or 2 on this slate in order to pay off in a GPP while rightly guessing which NO pass-catchers to pair him with. Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway are candidates to catch a TD with Buffalo surrendering the 3rd highest WR target share in the NFL. I would stack Siemian with two Saints (perhaps Tony Jones Jr.?) and hope one of them catches two TDs and gains massive leverage on the field.