NFL DFS FanDuel Picks: Conference Championship Round 2025 (Fantasy Football)
DFS strategy is different on small playoff slates, and it doesn’t get much smaller than Conference Championship week. Getting unique is important, but it becomes tricky when you only have four teams. I focus more on tournaments than cash games on this size slate, where, ultimately, we’re looking for the highest ceiling and a few spots to get different, if it makes sense.
Choosing a game script you believe in and setting your lineup accordingly is paramount. With just two games and a small sample size of playoff statistics, this weekend can rely heavily on game theory and the story you believe unfolds on Sunday. For an in-depth overview of each game, check out Borg’s Pace of Play article.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen @ KC – $8,700
Allen is the slate’s most expensive QB, but he carries the best combination of floor and ceiling at the position. If the Bills pull off the upset and knock out the Chiefs, Allen is likely to be the reason why. If Kansas City gets a lead, Allen will do his best to put the Bills on his back. There are just four QBs to choose from and more evident ways for the other three to fail, at least from a DFS perspective. Allen can be played naked, but with just two games to choose from, taking chances stacking with his pass catchers makes a lot of sense.
Jayden Daniels @ PHI – $8,300
Allen may have the highest floor, but Daniels has at least as high of a ceiling on this two-game slate. The Eagles are a formidable defense, but the Commanders should look to keep the pedal to the metal to earn a spot in the Super Bowl. Per Borg’s Pace of Play article, “Washington ranks 4th in neutral pace, 1st in no-huddle rate, and a willingness to go for it on 4th down like their life depended on it”. Daniels will continue to rack up fantasy points if the Commanders stay aggressive, even if it doesn’t lead to a Super Bowl appearance.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley vs. WAS – $9,800
Barkley is the most expensive player on the slate, a whopping $1,100 more than Josh Allen. Still, it’s tough to imagine fading him this weekend. The Eagles are already extremely run-heavy, as once again noted in the Pace of Play article, “Philly ranks dead last in PROE, 4th in 1st half rush rate, #1 in second half rush rate, and 2nd in neutral rush rate. In other words, any way you want to spin it, this team is built on its offensive line and its experience in the run game”. Now add in the fact that Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee issue, and it’s tough to envision Philly going away from Saquon and the run game unless they are pushed to the brink of defeat, which seems unlikely as six-point home favorites. The optimizer is currently showing his roster percentage approaching 90%, so fading him could give you leverage on the field…or bury you all together.
*Note: RB options get thin after Barkley. You can call your shot on James Cook ($7,100) or Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,400) to find the end zone multiple times, but I would rather spend down at my RB2, especially given Saquon’s massive tag.
Austin Ekeler @ PHI – $5,600
Ekeler has made nice contributions in Washington’s first two playoff games. His 11.0 opportunities and 70.5 total yards per game in the playoffs are higher than his regular season averages. He’s more versatile than Robinson, and the game script could favor him with Washington entering the game as a six-point underdog.
Ty Johnson – $5,300
OR
Ray Davis – $5,100 @ KC
Either of Buffalo’s backup RBs could end up being the key to unlocking this slate. The hard part is choosing the right one. Johnson has flashed at times as a receiver out of the backfield and makes for a sneaky stack with Josh Allen. He’s been quiet in the playoffs, catching just three passes on three targets over the first two games, but could become more involved in the Bills fall behind. Davis, on the other hand, would likely get there by falling in the end zone. That’s exactly what he did last week when he vultured a short-yardage TD against Baltimore.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown vs. WAS – $8,200
Brown has been a letdown for DFS lineups in the playoffs, but the narrative would be different if he had secured the long TD pass from Jalen Hurts in bounds last week.
Oh no! pic.twitter.com/Uqx5kfR2kq
— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) January 19, 2025
He’s still getting usage, leading the Eagles with 54 routes run and tied with Dallas Goedert with 10 targets in Philly’s first two playoff games. He could be poised to erupt and break the slate. The optimizer currently shows him rostered at nearly 40%, which feels high but ranks fourth at the position on this small slate.
Terry McLaurin @ PHI – $7,900
McLaurin has been on fire, averaging 17.1 FanDuel points over his last three games while scoring a TD in each of them. He is the most obvious stacking partner if you are building lineups with Jayden Daniels. However, I plan to be underweight on McLaurin in lineups without Daniels, as he is currently showing up as the second-most popular WRon the slate.
Marquise Brown vs. BUF – $5,800
Xavier Worthy ($6,500) is showing up as the most popular WR on the slate in the optimizer. He may be Kansas City’s most productive WR in recent weeks, but Brown has some interesting underlying metrics. His routes run have increased in three straight games since returning from injury and the 23 he ran last week were just two fewer than Worthy. His aDOT has also increased each week and is now up to an average of 11.1 yards. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs haven’t been throwing it deep often, but if he connects with one this week, there’s a good chance it’s with Hollywood.
Buffalo Bills WR @ KC
I mentioned earlier that I want to throw some darts at Buffalo WRs in Josh Allen stacks. Khalil Shakir ($6,400) is the most obvious choice as Allen’s go-to receiver in the playoffs. His 13 targets in the postseason are almost as many as Buffalo’s other four WRs combined (17). Keon Coleman ($4,900) is my next favorite as the only WR other than Shakir to run at least 30 routes in the playoffs. Curtis Samuel ($5,300), Amari Cooper ($5,100), and Mack Hollins ($5,000) are other darts you can throw if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Tight Ends
*Note: There are arguably six viable TEs on this slate. I’ll dive into a few of them below, but make sure to choose one that makes sense for your lineup. It can even make sense to use one in the flex for two TE builds.
Dallas Goedert vs. WAS – $5,900
Goedert leads the Eagles in targets, receptions, and receiving yards over the two postseason games. He’s the first TE beneath Travis Kelce as you browse the position, which may cause him to go relatively overlooked. I’m not sure Goedert breaks the slate, but finishing as the TE1 is in his range of outcomes.
Dalton Kincaid @ KC – $5,200
OR
Dawson Knox @ KC – $4,700
Just like Josh Allen’s WRs, I want to mix one of his TEs into a lineup where it makes sense. Kincaid has five targets this postseason on 33 routes, which both rank second behind Khalil Shakir over the past two weeks. Knox has the same amount of targets on four fewer routes. Kincaid profiles as a more athletic pass-catcher who can put up more yards, but either is capable of catching a TD pass or two from Allen. I prefer Kincaid but do not want to ignore Knox.
Noah Gray vs. BUF – $4,900
I’m not saying that I’m not going to play Travis Kelce ($6,800), but the future Hall of Famer is going to be wildly popular on this slate. Gray offers great leverage as a Kansas City pass catcher who saw three targets on 15 routes last week. He averaged 11.7 fantasy points over a five-game stretch earlier this season, including two games over 16. A performance anywhere near that in the AFC Championship game would easily pay off his affordable salary.
DST
Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS – $4,400
I’m never paying up for the top defense on a normal regular season slate, but with only four options to choose from and just an $800 difference from top to bottom, I’m not messing around here. Philly is a six-point home favorite against a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been phenomenal, but he’s still a rookie, and the Eagles have a stellar defense. The optimizer currently shows nearly 50% of the field rostering Philly, but that also means that 50% of the field won’t be.