NFL DFS DraftKings Picks: Wild Card Weekend 2025 (Fantasy Football)
Playoffs! Wild Card Weekend is here! For this article, I’ll be focusing on my favorite plays on the Saturday 2-game slate and the Sunday 3-game slate. Of course, you can use this analysis as well as the DFS Podcast to help if you’re playing the full weekend 6-game slate, but given that DK decided to split the slate into two separate days, that’s where most of the action is this weekend.
If you’re looking for more content on this slate, be sure to check out these resources:
Additionally, I’ll be in Discord Monday afternoon to do a Q & A for the Monday Night Football showdown slate between the Vikings and the Rams.
*Note : Plays listed below are in order of salary, NOT necessarily ranked by preferred plays. Kyle and I will have a Best Plays article available in the DFS Pass later today.
Saturday Slate
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson $8,000 vs. PIT
On the two-game slate, there really isn’t another QB who can compete with Jackson’s floor/ceiling combo. At home, quarterbacking the team with the highest implied team total, Lamar has the best chance of the four QBs on this slate to post somewhere between 20-30 DK points. Of course, not having Zay Flowers hurts, and to their credit, the Steelers have played well historically against Jackson. That said, when you factor in his ability to run and how cheap his stacking partners are, I will certainly have plenty of Jackson on this smaller slate. Worth noting, the last time these clubs met in Week 16, Jackson averaged 9 yards per pass attempt and threw three scores.
Justin Herbert $6,000 @ HOU
Herbert comes into the postseason playing some great ball. Over his last three games, Big Herbs is completing 73% of his passes for 8.7 YPA while also adding 27.3 rushing yards per game. Houston’s pass rush is great, but if the LA line can hold up, Herbert has a chance for a big day against a Texans secondary that’s faced the league’s second-highest deep throw rate.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry $8,200 vs. PIT
In Baltimore wins this year, the King is averaging 21 carries, 130.9 rushing yards and a rushing score per game. The Ravens are nearly 10-point home favorites against a Steelers run defense that ranks 26th in EPA per rush attempt and 21st in rush success rate over the last six weeks. In two meetings with PIT this year, Henry has averaged 5.0 and 6.8 yards per carry.
Joe Mixon $7,200 vs. LAC
Bobby Slowik is very likely to try to establish it here with Mixon. The Texans’ run game has not been efficient this season, but LA uses light boxes at the second-highest rates in football, and since Week 12, LAC ranks 13th in success rate, 16th in EPA and 23rd in YPC. It’s not the worst spot in the world for Mixon, who could get 20 touches if this game stays close or HOU is able to grab a lead.
Jaylen Warren $5,200 @ BAL
I’m lower in general on the Steelers this weekend, but on the 2-gamer, I do think Warren is interesting as a cheaper RB play. The Steelers are likely to struggle to run the ball here against a dominant Baltimore defense, which means Najee could lose work to Warren if Pittsburgh falls behind. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards to running backs, and in the Week 16 matchup against Baltimore when they fell behind Warren played 67% of the snaps and saw 17 opportunities including 5 targets. I have interest in him as a pass catcher for Russ and will be playing more of him than Najee.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins $7,800 vs. LAC
On paper, Stroud is likely to struggle this week against the Chargers, but that doesn’t mean Nico can’t have a nice game, especially on a full PPR site thanks to is outlandish target share projection. “Competing” with the likes of part-time player Diontae Johnson, Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie, Stroud should relentlessly target Collins in this spot.
Ladd McConkey $6,800 @ HOU
Ladd’s splits against Cover 1 are off the charts, notable as Houston uses this look at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Against Cover 1 looks, Ladd is averaging 3.3 yards per route run as Herbert’s go to guy. Earning a route on 27% of his routes since Week 13, McConkey is the dude for LA, averaging 90.2 receiving yards per game in that sample. I really like him on this small slate (and the six-gamer) and plan to be overweight on the Saturday-only slate.
Rashod Bateman $5,000 vs. PIT
Without Zay, Bateman should operate as the WR for a team projected to score 26.5 points based on implied team totals in the betting market. I do think Joey Porter Jr. could give him some problems on the perimeter, but Bateman has had a really nice season, and he’s coming off a game where he saw 8 targets with Flowers leaving early. That’s hard to ignore at just $5K.
Quentin Johnston $4,800 @ HOU
QJ is Questionable due to an illness and thigh injury, so that’s an important thing to monitor ahead of Saturday. Assuming we get the green light here, I like Johnston as part of Herbert stacks. He’s coming off a game where he saw 14 targets (!!), and while that’s obviously not the norm for Quej, he’s clearly part of the game plan with Joshua Palmer out. Johnston led the team with an 84% route rate last week, and Houston has faced the league’s second-highest target share to perimeter WRs where Johnston plays almost exclusively.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews $4,700 vs. PIT
Without Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews has a great chance to operate as Lamar’s top weapon. He’s second on the team in target share and second in targets per route run. Considering Flowers’ routes are going to be filled by low usage guys like Agholor and Tylan Wallace, Andrews’ target share should spike here against a Steelers defense that ranks bottom five in receptions allowed to the position.
Isaiah Likely $3,200 vs. PIT
The matchup is just as good for Likely as it is for Andrews, and I think this is a spot where the Ravens are going to play a ton of 12 personnel. Priced at just $3,200, I view Likely as a solid punt option for the 2-game slate. I like him as either leverage off Andrews or one of my sneaky ways to play it is to play Likely with Andrews as part of Lamar double stacks. I can’t see Agholor or Wallace earning targets at a high level, and we know Likely can make plays, especially in the red zone. I bring that up because Baltimore’s 26.5 implied team total is by far the highest on this 2-gamer.
DST
BAL $3,700 vs. PIT
Baltimore’s defense has flipped the switch down the stretch, ranking #1 in EPA per play, #1 in success rate and #1 in points per game allowed since Week 12. Now, they’re at home as near double-digit favorite against a Pittsburgh offense that simply lacks top tier playmakers.
LAC $3,200 @ HOU
There’s really no other way to put it – CJ Stroud has regressed in year two, he doesn’t have Diggs or Dell, and the offensive line is a complete liability. Los Angeles ranks second in yards per pass attempt (6.7) and seventh-lowest passer rating allowed, and now they’ll get a chance to tee off against a struggling Houston pass blocking unit that’s faced quick pressure at a top-five rate. From an on paper standpoint, the Chargers’ zone-heavy defense could give Stroud problems. LAC is top-five in zone coverage snaps played defensively, and 10 of Stroud’s 12 INTs have come against zone coverage per NextGenStats.
Sunday Slate
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen $8,200 vs. DEN
Allen is expensive, but I do think the ceiling here is really intriguing. In home games this year, the Bills averaged 34.3 (!!) points per game, and that includes a Week 18 game where Trubisky was the dude. With Allen accounting for so many of Buffalo’s TDs and his willingness to run in the playoffs (56.3 yards per game in his career), Allen can get there with his legs, but I actually think this is a spot where he can also have a nice day through the air, even against a good Denver defense. The Broncos blitzed at the fourth-highest rate this season, but when they did, they generated pressure at the ninth-lowest rate. In other words, when they blitzed, they weren’t great at actually capitalizing on that opportunity. Allen was second in the NFL in TD passes thrown against the blitz.
Jayden Daniels $7,500 @ TB
Tampa/Washington offers real shootout appeal on Sunday night with that game featuring the highest total on the slate. We know the deal with this Bucs defense – they’re awesome against the run, and they’ve struggled in pass defense. With Brian Robinson plodding for 3.2 yards per carry over the last month, the path for Washington to win this game is via Jayden’s legs and his ability to throw the football. With Baker and the Bucs very likely to put up points here, we should see Daniels pushed on the other side.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley $8,500 vs. GB
The Eagles have been one of the league’s most run-heavy units this season, and now as 4.5-point home favorites, that’s unlikely to change against the Packers. In the regular season, we’d see Kenny Gainwell mixing in at times, but now that the postseason is here, Barkley’s a candidate to touch the ball 25 times where we could see his snap rate spike even higher. He’s rested after taking Week 18 off, giving him fresh legs for a monster workload here.
Bucky Irving $7,000 vs. WAS
Last week with the Bucs needing to win to secure the division, Rachaad White touched the ball zero times…zero! Irving lapped his teammate in snaps and also logged 21 total touches in that game against the Saints. Sure, White could in theory get back to small role here, but the team has shown they trust the rookie and are willing to feed him in high leverage spots. At home as a favorite in the best game on the slate at this tag, there’s not many holes you can poke in Irving this week. The Commanders have given up the fourth-most rushing yards and the fifth-highest yards per carry to opposing backs this season.
James Cook $6,700 vs. DEN
As a TD home favorite with the Bills projected for plenty of points and Cook priced below $7,000 on a small slate, I really like this spot for Cook. We know Allen is a threat at the goal line and guys like Ray Davis and Ty Johnson could mix in for some touches, but Cook is an ultra explosive runner who led the NFL in rushing TDs (16) this year. In terms of roster percentage, I could see him coming in fourth on this slate behind Saquon, Bucky and Jacobs. That feels like a really nice leverage spot on a small slate.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans $7,900 vs. WAS
Welcome to Marshon Lattimore week! I’m fading that narrative this week given that Lattimore has struggled with a hamstring injury for almost all of 2024. The Commanders play a ton of man coverage, which could spell trouble for one of the best man beaters in the NFL. Since he returned to the lineup from his hamstring injury, Evans’ role has been outrageous. He’s being targeted on 33% of his routes with a 42% air yards share and and a team-lead six end zone targets. At home in the best game environment on the slate, Evans’ ceiling here is worth chasing.
Terry McLaurin $6,500
Tampa’s pass defense has struggled all season giving up the third-most catches and seventh-most yards to opposing wide outs in 2024. Even though guys like Ertz and Zacchaeus are capable of popping up for a big game, the most likely scenario here for Daniels to hit from a ceiling perspective is via stacks with McLaurin. Scary Terry led all Commanders pass catchers with a 21.7% target share and a massive 40% air yards share. Tampa has faced the third-highest target share to perimeter WRs where Terry runs most of his routes.
DeVonta Smith $5,700 vs. GB
You won’t find me saying anything negative about AJ Brown $7,500, but this nearly $2,000 savings goes a long way on a slate that’s pretty tightly priced. As a result, if forced to choose one, I lean Skinny Batman given the savings. I don’t expect a ton of pass attempts from Hurts given how run-heavy they’ve been, but we know Smitty is talented and can win down the field. Green Bay’s pass defense ranks 19th in drop back success rate since Week 10.
Khalil Shakir $5,300 vs. DEN
If picking a Bills pass catcher, Shakir is my dude this week given that he leads all WRs and TEs in playing time and routes run and has great numbers when Josh Allen has been blitzed. As noted above with Allen, he’s shred against the blitz, and in those scenarios, Shakir leads the team with a 28% target share. We know the Broncos don’t give up a ton of big plays, funneling targets underneath and over the middle of the field where Shakir can pile up receptions and yards. On a full PPR site, I really like Shakir’s outlook this week.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz $4,300 @ TB
Ertz just keeps getting it done – He finished the season top-10 among all TEs in targets, catches and TDs, and this game between the Bucs and Commanders carries the highest total of the weekend. With the Bucs dealing with injuries to multiple safeties, the on paper matchup here is pretty good for Ertz, making him an interesting stacking partner with Daniels.
Dallas Goedert $3,900 vs. GB
Goedert’s matchup here is great against a Packers defense that’s given up 10th-most receptions (93) and eighth-most receiving yards (970) to tight ends this season. He’s clearly the third option on a low volume passing offense, so I struggle to see a huge ceiling but at just $3,900, we don’t need him to hit a massive ceiling to pay it off. Whether it’s part of Hurts stacks or as a one off, I like Goedert quite a bit when you adjust for salary. Straight up, I prefer Goedert to Kincaid at essentially the same price.
DST
BUF $3,500 vs. DEN
Bo Nix has had a great rookie season, but playing on the road in front of Bills Mafia in the playoffs presents a unique challenge for the young QB. Denver’s 19.5 implied team total is the second lowest of any team on Wild Card Weekend.
PHI $3,300 vs. PHI
Jordan Love is dealing with a minor elbow injury and won’t have Christian Watson on the road against one of the best defenses in football. Since Week 10, the Eagles rank #1 in EPA per play and #1 in EPA per drop back. We’ve seen Love have some ups and downs throughout the year, but this profiles as a really tough spot for the Pack on the road as 4.5-point dogs.
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