Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 6

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 6!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

  • After limiting his touches to start the season, the New York Jets finally unleashed Breece Hall in Week 5. To no surprise, he demolished the Denver Broncos’ run defense as he averaged over seven yards per touch on 25 total opportunities. And after finishing outside of the top 30 in Expected Points in each of his first four games, Hall was the RB4 in my usage model in Week 5 with 18.5 xFP. He also averaged the second-highest opportunity share of his career with 43.1%, clearly ranking ahead of Dalvin Cook (10.3%) this past week. While I do believe that the matchup and game script likely played a role in his expanded usage, Hall remains one of the most effective offensive weapons for the Jets. If they want to stay competitive and win games, they need to keep Hall involved. Unfortunately, he now faces a tougher matchup against Philadelphia (top-five run defense). Though assuming his RB1 usage continues, Hall should remain a top-20 option, despite the Eagles’ formidable defensive unit. 

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