DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 9
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: IND -10.5
Team Totals: Colts (28.3), Jets (17.8)
Fresh off a shocking upset of the AFC North leading Bengals, the Jets travel to Indianapolis for a matchup with the Colts in a game featuring a middling 46.0 point total. Vegas projects the Colts to steamroll the Jets, making them 10.5-point favorites at home. Per Matt DiSorbo’s offseason research study, when a team is favored by at least 10 points, the favored team wins 85% of the time. Unless we see more magic from Mike White, we can safely project the Colts to cruise to victory in this matchup. Given the spread, I’ll be building the vast majority of my lineups around game scripts where Indy wins.
If that’s the case, it’s important to consider how these teams operate in certain game scripts. When leading by 7+ points, Indy has no problem slowing it down, ranking 8th slowest in pace of play this season when leading by 7+ points. In these scenarios, Frank Reich has no problem trying to #EstablishTheRun, throwing at just a measly 45% clip. Spoiler alert – Jonathan Taylor is in a smash spot here. As for the fighting Mike White‘s, New York has spent plenty of time trailing this year. When they’re behind by 7+ points, they’re throwing at a 71% clip, completely abandoning the run game.
While New York’s skill group leaves a lot to be desired, if this game script plays out the way these stats suggest, we’ll want to be looking at the Jets passing game and the Colts ground game as focal points of roster construction. New York is likely to be underutilized by the field, yet they should provide value on Thursday night in showdown DFS on DraftKings.
Plays per game: Colts (19th), Jets (23rd)
Neutral Situation Pace: Colts (24th), Jets (14th)
- WR T.Y. Hilton (Concussion): Out
- G Quenton Nelson (Toe): Questionable
- S Khari Willis (Calf): Out
- QB Zach Wilson (Knee): Out
- RB Tevin Coleman (Hamstring): Out
- WR Corey Davis (Hip): Doubtful
- LT Mekhi Becton (Knee): Out
- Backup LT George Fant (Ankle): Questionable
Jonathan Taylor $17,400
DraftKings isn’t doing us any favors with this pricing, making JT the most expensive player on the entire slate but for good reason. Jonathan Taylor has been red hot as of late, averaging 19 opportunities and 134.6 yards from scrimmage per game over his last five. In that time span, Taylor has banked five consecutive top 10 weekly finishes in season long leagues while seeing his playing time trending in the right direction. Since Week 4, his snap counts are as follows: 51% > 53% > 65% > 69% > 74%. There’s absolutely zero holes to poke in this spot for Taylor, who catches a Jets team that’s allowed the most fantasy points in the league to the RB position. New York has allowed the most rushing TD in the league and the 3rd most 10+ yards. I like JT’s chances of breaking a long one here for a score playing at home as 10.5 point favorites where he’s poised to feast in a positive game script.