DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BAL -7.5
Total: 51.5
Team Totals: Ravens (29.5), Dolphins (22.0)
Game Outlook
Week 9 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night when the Ravens travel to South Beach for a matchup with the Dolphins; Market is certainly on the Ravens here and moving forward. They’re favored by 7.5 or 8 depending on which book you look at and they’re the consensus favorite to win the AFC North despite sitting at just 2-5. I think the vast majority of DFS players will build as if the Ravens take care of business here, but we’ll talk more about some game theory opportunities in the ‘Final Thoughts’ section below. Let’s start with the favorites here as the Ravens are set to get Lamar Jackson back for his first game since they were pantsed against the Chiefs back in Week 4. With so many injuries on both sides of the ball, I’m inclined to put less stock in the data from the Lamar-less games where the Ravens lost three straight heading into their bye week by a combined 65 points (yikes). In Weeks 1-4 with Lamar starting, the Ravens did trend pass first, posting a +5.6 PROE rate. However, this past week against the Bears beatable rush defense, the Ravens went pretty run heavy, posting a -9.1% PROE rate. Now installed as a TD+ favorite against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in EPA against the run, I suspect we see a pretty heavy rush rate, assuming the spread is right here. Worth noting, the Dolphins do rank 30th in EPA against the pass, so this is a ‘pick your poison’ situation. I do expect Lamar to be highly efficient as a passer even if the raw pass volume is unlikely to be there .
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