DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 8
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: ARI -6.5
Team Totals: Cardinals (28.5), Packers (22.0)
Arguably the best matchup of the week, the 6-1 Green Bay Packers travel to Arizona to take on the only remaining undefeated NFL team, the Arizona Cardinals. This game lost a little bit of its shine when Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both got ruled out due to Covid protocols. Worth noting, Green Bay will also be down their defensive coordinator due to Covid protocols as well.
The sportsbooks were quick to adjust to the Packers news, changing this line to a 6.5-point spread after it originally opened with the Cardinals favored by 3.5 points. Not surprising, the total also came down two full points from it’s opening line of 52.5. Even still, this game projects to be one of the best of Week 8.
This is a game that should provide plenty of opportunities for leverage, especially at the captain spot. Green Bay DFS Showdown slates usually result in Davante Adams being the most popular captain selection by the field. Now, all bets are off, and there’s a lot of interesting angles in this matchup. I’ll personally be playing more GPPs to adjust for what projects to be a more spread out captain rostership, creating plenty of opportunities to get unique in the captain spot.
Building lineups around contrarian game scripts is likely advantageous here, especially with the vast majority of the public assuming the Cardinals smash the Packers at home sans their WR1 and WR2. In the sports betting world, nearly 60% of the cash and tickets are on the Cardinals covering the spread. If we project the Packers to keep this one within one score or even win (they’re 6-0 in games without Davante Adams), we’ll be creating massive leverage on the field, as lineups are likely to feature Cardinal heavy builds based on the Vegas spread and implied total for Arizona.
Plays per game: Cardinals (10th), Packers (26th)
Neutral Situation Pace: Cardinals (2oth), Packers (31st)
- WR DeAndre Hopkins (Questionable): Hamstring
- C Rodney Hudson (IR): Ribs
- C Max Garcia (Questionable): Achilles
- DE J.J. Watt (Out): Shoulder
- DT Rashard Lawrence (Questionable): Calf
- WR Davante Adams (Out): Covid-IR
- WR Allen Lazard (Out): Covid-IR
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR): Hamstring, eligible to return Thursday night. Team has said he’ll be a GTD.
- C Josh Meyers (IR): MCL sprain
- LT David Bakhtiari (PUP): Still recovering from ACL surgery
- RT Dennis Kelly (Doubtful): Back
- CB Jaire Alexander (IR): Shoulder
- CB Kevin King (Questionable): Shoulder
- LB Za’Darius Smith (IR): Back surgery
- LB Preston Smith (Questionable): Oblique
Aaron Jones $13,500
With the Packers’ skill position group negatively affected by the Covid-IR list, Aaron Jones should be the focal point for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers attack on Thursday night. It’s a bit of a small sample but in seven games without Davante Adams in the lineup, Jones is averaging 22.7 PPR points per game, two more receptions per game and 31 more receiving yards per game. For reference, he’s averaged 15.2 PPR points with Adams in the lineup. As for the matchup, the Cardinals are beatable on the ground, allowing the 11th most rushing yards in the league, ranking bottom 10 in rush success rate allowed and bottom three in yards before contact allowed. I could even see Jones earning some snaps lined up out wide or in the slot sans Adams, further strengthening Jones’ floor/ceiling combination. The Cardinals are giving up the ninth most receptions to opposing backs. Whether it’s as a captain or a flex play, I’ll have plenty of exposure to Jones on Thursday night.