DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown For Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: CLE -4.5
Team Totals: Browns (21.5), Steelers (17.0)
After last Thursday night’s matchup between Mahomes and Herbert, we get the most ‘Thursday Night Football’ matchup of all time – Jacoby Brissett vs. Mitchell Trubisky. Setting up to be an AFC North slugfest, this game features the lowest total on the entire Week 3 slate with the game total currently sitting at 38.5…thank goodness for DFS am I right?
The Browns haven’t tried to hide their game plan with Brissett under center – they want to run the ball whenever possible. Through two weeks, the Browns rank 30th in pass rate over expectation (per 4fof4) while handing off at the league’s 4th highest rate when games are within one score. So long as this game stays close, Jacoby will be out there to put the ball in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt‘s belly whenever possible. Fortunately for the Browns, only four teams have faced more rushing attempts than the Steelers two weeks into the season. With T Jack Conklin and G Joel Bitonio expected back in the lineup on a short week, we’d be shocked if they change their game plan now.
As for Pittsburgh, it’s been a grind to open the year on the offensive side of the football. Two weeks into the season, Trubisky’s offense ranks 30th in yards per play, 28th in drive success rate and 31st in explosive pass rate. When you think of fantasy football upside, the Steelers don’t necessarily come to mind. They do, however, catch a Browns defense that just gave up 31 points to the Jets and Joe Flacco just a few days ago. Maybe the Steelers can right the ship in this prime time tilt. They’re at least throwing at an elevated rate (10th in neutral pass rate) and playing with pace (10th), so if they can get their efficiency sorted out, better fantasy days are ahead for the Steelers.