DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: NYJ -6.5
Total: 38.5
Team Totals: Jets (22.5), Patriots (16.0)
Game Outlook
Week 3 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night with an AFC East matchup between the Patriots and the Jets with New England traveling to MetLife in a game that features a vomit inducing 38.5 point total. For context, only two games on the Week 3 slate have a lower game total, and no NFL offense is projected to score fewer points than the Patriots based on implied team totals. Thanks goodness for DFS, am I right?!
We’re two weeks into the season, so we’re starting to get an idea of what these teams look like from a play calling perspective. Let’s start with the Patriots, who have been one of the league’s most run centric offenses thus far. Through two weeks, they’re running at the league’s second-highest neutral rush rate while ranking 25th in pass rate over expectation. In theory, on the road as a 6.5-point underdog could provoke a more pass-heavy game plan, but it’s worth noting that the 49ers and Titans chose to employ a run-first game plan against the Jets defense. After two weeks, the Jets have faced the league’s ninth-highest rush rate, so long as this game stays reasonably close, expect the Pats to avoid the Jets great secondary and keep the ball on the ground. Worth noting, per NextGenStats, New England has been awesome running between the tackles, ranking 8th in efficiency on those carries. Similarly, the Jets rank 28th against the run on runs between the tackles. If you’re a fan of 1998 football, this Pats offense is for you.
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