DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 10
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BAL -7.5
Team Totals: Ravens (27.0), Dolphins (19.5)
The AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens take their talents to South Beach for a Thursday night showdown with the 2-7 Miami Dolphins in a game featuring a 46.5 point total. Not surprisingly, Vegas projects the Ravens to win this game somewhat easily with the Ravens favored by 7.5 points on the road. With this in mind, I’ll be building most lineups around a game script in which the Ravens win the game.
Baltimore’s 2021 version of their offense looks nothing like what we’ve seen in 2019 or 2020, as they’re leaning more into the passing attack and their MVP candidate’s right arm. It’s a tough look for dorks on the internet who called Lamar Jackson a running back, as he’s on pace for career highs in passing yards and passing efficiency…but I digress. With the Dolphins dead last in the league against the pass, Lamar and his pass-catchers are almost guaranteed to succeed. However, when the Ravens are winning by 7+ points, they choose to slow it down and lean into the run game, especially over the last month of the season. Since Week 5, when Baltimore is leading by 7+ points, they’re running at a 59% clip. As a result, getting some exposure to Baltimore’s dusty RBs (while yucky) may be smart, especially if you think the Ravens cover the spread.
As for Miami’s side, it’s fairly easy to see a path to the Dolphins having to lean into their passing game as 7.5 point underdogs. With a 2-7 record, we’ve got plenty of data on this team playing from behind, throwing at a 72% clip when trailing by a TD or more. In neutral scripts, Miami is also willing to let the bash bros, Tua and Jacoby, sling the rock at one of the highest rates in football. When games are close, Miami’s 64% pass rate is 3rd highest in the league. As a result, the Dolphins pass catchers look like the ones to target on Thursday night.
Plays per game: Ravens (70, 1st), Dolphins (63.8, 14th)
Neutral Situation Pace: Ravens (28th), Dolphins (5th)
- RB Latavius Murray (Ankle): Doubtful
- WR Sammy Watkins (Hamstring): Questionable but expected to play barring a pregame setback
- TE Nick Boyle (Knee): Questionable
- DT Brandon Williams (Shoulder): Questionable
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (Finger): Questionable, Likely to be ‘active’ but all reports indicate Jacoby Brissett will start. Tua to serve as backup if active.
- WR Will Fuller (Finger): IR
- WR DeVante Parker (Hamstring): IR
- RB Malcolm Brown (Quad): IR
Lamar Jackson $20,700
TWENTY THOUSAND! Whew, DraftKings didn’t do us any favors with Lamar’s captain price, but it’s hard to argue against it with how good he’s been for fantasy on this season, posting three huge ceiling performances of 35+ DraftKings points already at the midway point on the season. It’s really difficult to go full fade on Lamar on Thursday night as his passing + rushing combination makes him one of the safest plays on the slate. The discussion here with the MVP candidate is how you handle him at captain. Personally, I’ll be underweight compared to the field on Lamar captain exposure simply because of the leverage it creates in large field GPPs. He’s going to be the most popular captain play on the slate and his price is somewhat prohibitive in building a more balanced lineup. That said, there are literally zero holes to poke in this spot for Jackson. Miami has allowed the most passing yards in the league, ranks dead last in sack rate, and Jackson’s 12.8 Yards per Completion leads the NFL. And of course, Lamar can always break the slate with his legs.
Stack Idea: Cpt Lamar Jackson + 1 Ravens pass catcher, Bring back with 4 Dolphins