DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: KC -3
Total: 46.5
Team Totals: Chiefs (23.75), Ravens (21.75)
Game Outlook
We’re back, baby! The 2024 season kicks off with an absolute banger between the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. A rematch from last year’s AFC Championship game, there’s no shortage of star power in this contest, which should give us plenty of ways to attack the slate from a GPP perspective. Before we dive into the specific plays on this slate, let’s quickly dive into the game outlook, including some pace metrics and play calling tendencies.
Let’s start with KC, who essentially spent the entire off-season telling us that they’ve got one goal: Throw, throw, throw and bring back the explosive element to the Mahomes air attack that was lacking in 2023. KC signed Hollywood Brown in free agency, drafted the fastest player in Combine history in Xavier Worthy then recently brought in pass catching specialist, Samaje Perine. Meanwhile, we know they’ve still got Kelce and Rashee Rice out there looking to build on an incredibly strong 2023 campaign. And oh by the way, even though last year felt like a dink and dunk style offense that was more conservative, the Chiefs still were a top five team in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expectation (PROE). Now, their moves only further signal that the pass rate should once again remain sky high in 2024. After setting career lows in YPA, TD rate and completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards, I’m expecting a big time bounce back from Mahomes and the KC passing offense this year, starting in Week 1. I recently bet Mahomes to lead the league in both passing yards (+500) and passing TDs (+650).
On the Ravens side of things, it’s a little bit of a tricky scheme to diagnose. Of course, signing King Henry says this team will continue to lean on the ground game, especially inside the 10-yard line, but the Ravens were quietly top-10 last year in neutral pass rate in the first half of games under OC Todd Monken. It didn’t really feel like it because the Ravens defense was insane, and they were ahead in the second half of games almost the entire season. Per Rich Hribar, the Ravens only ran 85 total plays while trailing in the second half of games last season, which was the fewest of any time since 2015. We should obviously expect some regression there, and if that happens, Lamar’s pass attempts could spike in this matchup. Now on the road against KC as three-point underdogs, leaning into the Ravens passing attack might be sneaky considering opponents that faced KC over the last two seasons have thrown against the Chiefs at the fourth-highest rate. I think the general public will continue to view the Ravens as this run first ground and pound team, but I’ll be trying to find leverage with some the Ravens pass catchers while simultaneously being underweight Derrick Henry (ducks).
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