DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 7
Week 7 NFL DFS Sleepers
In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).
As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 7.
Quarterback APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | DET | ATL | 34.1 | +14.6 | 15 | TB | LV | 18.9 | -0.6 | |
| 2 | ARI | SEA | 28.0 | +8.4 | 16 | CLE | CIN | 18.5 | -1.1 | |
| 3 | JAX | LAC | 26.5 | +7.0 | 17 | BUF | NYJ | 18.3 | -1.2 | |
| 4 | CAR | NO | 26.0 | +6.4 | 18 | ATL | DET | 18.2 | -1.3 | |
| 5 | NYJ | BUF | 24.7 | +5.1 | 19 | HOU | GB | 17.5 | -2.1 | |
| 6 | PIT | TEN | 23.9 | +4.3 | 20 | SEA | ARI | 17.4 | -2.2 | |
| 7 | WSH | DAL | 23.1 | +3.5 | 21 | CHI | LAR | 17.2 | -2.3 | |
| 8 | NYG | PHI | 22.9 | +3.4 | 22 | TEN | PIT | 16.0 | -3.6 | |
| 9 | KC | DEN | 21.9 | +2.3 | 23 | PHI | NYG | 15.0 | -4.6 | |
| 10 | LAC | JAX | 21.6 | +2.0 | 24 | DEN | KC | 13.5 | -6.1 | |
| 11 | DAL | WSH | 21.4 | +1.8 | 25 | SAF | NE | 12.5 | -7.1 | |
| 12 | CIN | CLE | 19.8 | +0.3 | 26 | NO | CAR | 10.9 | -8.6 | |
| 13 | GB | HOU | 19.4 | -0.2 | 27 | LAR | CHI | 10.8 | -8.8 | |
| 14 | NE | SAF | 19.0 | -0.6 | 28 | LV | TB | 10.6 | -9.0 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 19.6 | |||||||||
Running Back APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | GB | HOU | 38.7 | +15.2 | 15 | CHI | LAR | 21.9 | -1.6 | |
| 2 | TB | LV | 35.4 | +11.9 | 16 | SEA | ARI | 21.0 | -2.5 | |
| 3 | HOU | GB | 35.2 | +11.7 | 17 | DET | ATL | 20.9 | -2.6 | |
| 4 | NO | CAR | 34.2 | +10.7 | 18 | DAL | WSH | 20.3 | -3.2 | |
| 5 | LAC | JAX | 32.9 | +9.4 | 19 | NYG | PHI | 17.9 | -5.6 | |
| 6 | ATL | DET | 31.3 | +7.8 | 20 | ARI | SEA | 17.8 | -5.7 | |
| 7 | BUF | NYJ | 31.1 | +7.6 | 21 | LAR | CHI | 17.7 | -5.8 | |
| 8 | PIT | TEN | 27.2 | +3.7 | 22 | CAR | NO | 16.9 | -6.6 | |
| 9 | WSH | DAL | 26.5 | +3.0 | 23 | JAX | LAC | 16.2 | -7.2 | |
| 10 | PHI | NYG | 25.4 | +2.0 | 24 | TEN | PIT | 15.7 | -7.8 | |
| 11 | DEN | KC | 24.5 | +1.0 | 25 | SAF | NE | 15.6 | -7.9 | |
| 12 | CLE | CIN | 24.1 | +0.6 | 26 | LV | TB | 15.4 | -8.1 | |
| 13 | NYJ | BUF | 24.0 | +0.5 | 27 | NE | SAF | 15.3 | -8.2 | |
| 14 | CIN | CLE | 22.1 | -1.4 | 28 | KC | DEN | 12.4 | -11.1 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 23.5 | |||||||||
Wide Receiver APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | ARI | SEA | 61.7 | +28.6 | 15 | SAF | NE | 32.5 | -0.6 | |
| 2 | CIN | CLE | 45.5 | +12.4 | 16 | JAX | LAC | 32.3 | -0.9 | |
| 3 | WSH | DAL | 44.4 | +11.2 | 17 | TB | LV | 31.3 | -1.8 | |
| 4 | PIT | TEN | 41.8 | +8.6 | 18 | NYJ | BUF | 31.2 | -1.9 | |
| 5 | NYG | PHI | 40.4 | +7.3 | 19 | CAR | NO | 29.5 | -3.6 | |
| 6 | DET | ATL | 40.4 | +7.2 | 20 | NE | SAF | 28.7 | -4.4 | |
| 7 | TEN | PIT | 39.7 | +6.5 | 21 | SEA | ARI | 27.2 | -6.0 | |
| 8 | ATL | DET | 37.1 | +4.0 | 22 | LV | TB | 26.6 | -6.6 | |
| 9 | GB | HOU | 35.7 | +2.5 | 23 | HOU | GB | 26.0 | -7.2 | |
| 10 | LAC | JAX | 35.2 | +2.1 | 24 | DEN | KC | 23.3 | -9.8 | |
| 11 | CLE | CIN | 34.0 | +0.8 | 25 | DAL | WSH | 22.8 | -10.4 | |
| 12 | KC | DEN | 33.5 | +0.3 | 26 | LAR | CHI | 21.8 | -11.4 | |
| 13 | PHI | NYG | 33.2 | +0.0 | 27 | NO | CAR | 20.4 | -12.8 | |
| 14 | BUF | NYJ | 32.6 | -0.6 | 28 | CHI | LAR | 19.9 | -13.3 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 33.2 | |||||||||
Tight End APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | DET | ATL | 25.4 | +13.1 | 15 | TB | LV | 11.8 | -0.4 | |
| 2 | CAR | NO | 21.8 | +9.5 | 16 | LAR | CHI | 10.9 | -1.4 | |
| 3 | NYJ | BUF | 20.3 | +8.0 | 17 | SEA | ARI | 10.1 | -2.2 | |
| 4 | NYG | PHI | 19.3 | +7.0 | 18 | KC | DEN | 9.9 | -2.4 | |
| 5 | PIT | TEN | 16.7 | +4.5 | 19 | HOU | GB | 9.6 | -2.7 | |
| 6 | JAX | LAC | 15.8 | +3.5 | 20 | NE | SAF | 8.9 | -3.4 | |
| 7 | DAL | WSH | 15.2 | +2.9 | 21 | DEN | KC | 8.2 | -4.0 | |
| 8 | CLE | CIN | 14.9 | +2.6 | 22 | LV | TB | 7.7 | -4.5 | |
| 9 | WSH | DAL | 14.7 | +2.4 | 23 | ARI | SEA | 7.4 | -4.9 | |
| 10 | CIN | CLE | 14.4 | +2.1 | 24 | NO | CAR | 7.4 | -4.9 | |
| 11 | LAC | JAX | 13.2 | +0.9 | 25 | TEN | PIT | 6.6 | -5.7 | |
| 12 | CHI | LAR | 13.2 | +0.9 | 26 | PHI | NYG | 6.4 | -5.9 | |
| 13 | BUF | NYJ | 12.9 | +0.7 | 27 | ATL | DET | 4.9 | -7.4 | |
| 14 | GB | HOU | 12.6 | +0.3 | 28 | SAF | NE | 3.7 | -8.6 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 12.3 | |||||||||
FanDuel Week 7 Sleepers
QUARTERBACK
Deshaun Watson $8000 – It’s not just that Watson has been on a roll since Bill O’Brien got the boot or that 26.86 and 32.0 are terrific scores the past two games, the Texans are also in a great spot for a potential shootout. People will worry about Jaire Alexander, and while he is a shutdown talent, he might not spend the entire game on Will Fuller given the matchup. Even then, with Fuller and Brandin Cooks, plus David Johnson out the backfield, Darren Fells at tight and the occasional Randall Cobb assistance, there is enough here for Watson, especially with his added rushing. After all, the Packers have faced statues so far, Kirk Cousins managed to run for a bit in Week 1, and every quarterback but Matt Ryan threw two touchdowns against the Pack.
OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs
Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Ben Roethlisberger
RUNNING BACK
David Johnson $6300 – Sticking with the Texans, it’s even better for David Johnson. While he hasn’t been a tournament winner, Johnson has double-digits in all but one game (Ravens). Johnson has three touchdowns on the year and hasn’t reached 100 rushing yards yet, but Ronald Jones just went for 113 and two scores against them. Don’t forget that Alvin Kamara obliterated them in the passing game (13/139/2) and even D’Andre Swift had 5-for-60 in Week 2.
Justin Jackson $6100 – It’s just one game, but Jackson looks to be stepping into the Austin Ekeler role with the offense holding steady. Joshua Kelley started in a near-even split before the bye, but by the fourth quarter, it was all Jackson, and he clearly outplayed Kelley. Jackson finished with 94 yards but is cheaper than Kelley, and the Jaguars have been destroyed by running backs since Week 3. Swift put up 24.3 last week and had a big game even without the second touchdown run.
OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs
Aaron Jones, Ronald Jones, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley
WIDE RECEIVER
Odell Beckham $6700 – Beckham was ticked and Baker Mayfield was playing terribly. Mayfield might not be better this week, but Beckham will do everything he can in this great matchup. OBJ had 4/74/1 in the first matchup, and Marcus Johnson had 5/108 last week with Zach Pascal chipping in 4/54/1. Oh, they also made Philip Rivers look like an elite quarterback despite his awful play this year.
Jamison Crowder $6300 – For whatever reason, people still don’t want to use Crowder. The 7-for-48 last week was actually his worst game, and he still had 13 targets. The previous three games, Crowder had at least 10 targets, 7 receptions, and 104 yards with touchdowns in two of them. The Bills defense has been very poor this year, and they continue to struggle against elusive running backs and middle of the field/slot receivers. Crowder can bounce back in a big way.
Tee Higgins $5700 – Higgins has quickly turned into the Bengals No. 1 receiver and Joe Burrow‘s main option in the red zone. You can bring back the OBJ play with Higgins (or vice versa), as Mike Thomas and Tyler Boyd both scored the first time around… before Higgins took over. The Browns have already given up 10 double-digit scores and two of 22-plus (both in Week 4 to the Cowboys).
OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs
DeAndre Hopkins, other Bengals, Terry McLaurin, Steelers, Lions
TIGHT END
Harrison Bryant $4400 – There is a lot to like in the Browns-Bengals game for value. Hockenson is the obvious play, and Austin Hooper was back to relevancy since Nick Chubb got hurt with lines of 7/5/34/1, 10/5/57/0, and 6/5/52/0 the past three games. Well, Hooper is now out, and Byrant has been used more with David Njoku sidelined. The Bengals have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in the past two games (Mark Andrews, Trey Burton, Jack Doyle), making Bryant a pure tournament lottery play, as many likely head to Njoku.
OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs
T.J. Hockenson, Eric Ebron, Logan Thomas, Hunter Henry
APA Concerning Matchups
QBs: Jared Goff, Drew Bress, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill
RBs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patriots, Josh Jacobs, James Robinson
WRs: Allen Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Cowboys, Broncos
TEs: Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Jared Cook, Darren Waller
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