DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 4

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Week 4 NFL DFS Sleepers

In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).

As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 4.

Quarterback APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 GB ATL 29.0 +9.8 17 JAX CIN 19.2 -0.0
2 CIN JAX 27.2 +8.0 18 SEA MIA 18.7 -0.5
3 MIA SEA 26.9 +7.6 19 PHI SAF 17.6 -1.6
4 LAV BUF 26.0 +6.7 20 HOU MIN 17.4 -1.8
5 ATL GB 24.6 +5.4 21 TB LAC 16.8 -2.5
6 PIT TEN 23.9 +4.7 22 DEN NYJ 16.6 -2.6
7 DAL CLE 23.6 +4.4 23 LAR NYG 16.5 -2.8
8 DET NO 23.2 +4.0 24 NO DET 15.7 -3.5
9 TEN PIT 22.6 +3.4 25 MIN HOU 14.2 -5.0
10 NYJ DEN 21.8 +2.5 26 LAC TB 13.9 -5.3
11 WSH BAL 21.6 +2.4 27 BUF LAV 13.9 -5.4
12 SAF PHI 21.4 +2.2 28 NYG LAR 13.2 -6.0
13 NE KC 20.9 +1.6 29 KC NE 12.9 -6.4
14 BAL WSH 20.5 +1.2 30 ARI CAR 12.6 -6.6
15 CLE DAL 20.4 +1.2 31 IND CHI 11.7 -7.6
16 CAR ARI 20.2 +1.0 32 CHI IND 10.7 -8.6
LEAGUE AVERAGE 19.2

Running Back APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 ARI CAR 42.0 +18.6 17 HOU MIN 22.6 -0.9
2 BUF LAV 38.3 +14.9 18 DEN NYJ 22.3 -1.1
3 MIN HOU 35.9 +12.5 19 TEN PIT 22.0 -1.4
4 ATL GB 32.5 +9.1 20 CAR ARI 21.4 -2.0
5 IND CHI 31.5 +8.1 21 DAL CLE 21.0 -2.4
6 NYG LAR 31.3 +7.9 22 PHI SAF 20.1 -3.3
7 NO DET 30.1 +6.7 23 BAL WSH 19.9 -3.5
8 PIT TEN 29.1 +5.7 24 LAC TB 19.4 -4.0
9 JAX CIN 27.5 +4.1 25 KC NE 17.8 -5.6
10 CIN JAX 24.8 +1.4 26 CLE DAL 17.0 -6.4
11 GB ATL 24.1 +0.7 27 NYJ DEN 16.9 -6.5
12 SEA MIA 24.0 +0.6 28 TB LAC 14.6 -8.8
13 LAR NYG 23.9 +0.4 29 CHI IND 13.6 -9.8
14 SAF PHI 23.9 +0.4 30 DET NO 12.3 -11.1
15 NE KC 23.2 -0.2 31 WSH BAL 12.1 -11.4
16 LAV BUF 22.7 -0.7 32 MIA SEA 11.4 -12.0
LEAGUE AVERAGE 23.4

Wide Receiver APA

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RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 MIA SEA 67.3 +35.9 17 WSH BAL 30.4 -1.1
2 HOU MIN 47.1 +15.7 18 SEA MIA 29.4 -2.1
3 TEN PIT 43.6 +12.1 19 GB ATL 28.9 -2.6
4 DAL CLE 42.7 +11.2 20 NO DET 28.5 -3.0
5 LAV BUF 39.9 +8.4 21 BAL WSH 28.2 -3.3
6 NYJ DEN 39.8 +8.4 22 BUF LAV 27.0 -4.4
7 ATL GB 37.1 +5.7 23 PHI SAF 26.1 -5.4
8 KC NE 35.8 +4.3 24 DEN NYJ 25.7 -5.8
9 PIT TEN 35.7 +4.3 25 CAR ARI 24.7 -6.8
10 LAR NYG 35.4 +4.0 26 MIN HOU 23.4 -8.1
11 SAF PHI 32.5 +1.0 27 DET NO 21.9 -9.6
12 CIN JAX 32.4 +0.9 28 CHI IND 21.6 -9.9
13 JAX CIN 32.0 +0.5 29 NE KC 20.9 -10.6
14 CLE DAL 31.3 -0.2 30 IND CHI 20.7 -10.8
15 ARI CAR 31.1 -0.4 31 TB LAC 17.8 -13.7
16 LAC TB 30.8 -0.7 32 NYG LAR 17.5 -13.9
LEAGUE AVERAGE 31.5

Tight End APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 DET NO 26.2 +15.1 17 TB LAC 11.5 +0.5
2 GB ATL 23.8 +12.8 18 NYG LAR 11.1 -0.0
3 DAL CLE 19.5 +8.5 19 CAR ARI 10.2 -0.9
4 PIT TEN 17.4 +6.4 20 NO DET 8.7 -2.3
5 BAL WSH 16.2 +5.2 21 LAC TB 7.8 -3.3
6 LAV BUF 15.9 +4.8 22 TEN PIT 7.4 -3.7
7 WSH BAL 15.7 +4.6 23 PHI SAF 7.4 -3.7
8 SAF PHI 14.4 +3.4 24 JAX CIN 7.3 -3.7
9 CLE DAL 14.2 +3.1 25 ATL GB 7.1 -4.0
10 CIN JAX 13.6 +2.6 26 MIA SEA 6.9 -4.2
11 DEN NYJ 12.5 +1.4 27 SEA MIA 5.7 -5.3
12 NYJ DEN 12.3 +1.3 28 CHI IND 5.3 -5.8
13 BUF LAV 12.0 +0.9 29 HOU MIN 2.9 -8.1
14 MIN HOU 11.7 +0.7 30 ARI CAR 2.6 -8.4
15 NE KC 11.7 +0.6 31 LAR NYG 2.3 -8.8
16 IND CHI 11.6 +0.6 32 KC NE 0.8 -10.2
LEAGUE AVERAGE 11.1

FanDuel Week 4 Sleepers

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Fitzpatrick $7100 – I’m genuinely surprised more aren’t immediately plugging in Fitzpatrick. Have we not seen what teams are doing against the Seahawks… which includes what they’re doing to opponents, thereby forcing the pace and score? Maybe everyone is fixated on the top names, and it’s understandable with a few quarterbacks blazing hot to start the year, but the Seahawks broke the wide receiver metric (being a bit tongue-in-cheek), and they’ve allowed a low of 397 passing yards.

OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs

Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford

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RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Taylor $7500 – So, we’re off Taylor that fast? The Colts were resting their offense in Week 4 with Jacoby Brissett even coming in to relieve Philip Rivers. Taylor is still the same running back people were tripping over themselves to chase after Marlon Mack got hurt. Additionally, the Bears are surprisingly susceptible to running backs with four double-digit scores allowed, and allowed to… Adrian Peterson, Dion Lewis, Todd Gurley and Brian Hill. Not exactly the upper echelon of running back talent, huh?

Kenyan Drake $7000 – I believe it’s due to the pricing, but projections have David Johnson and Joe Mixon with higher ownership. Johnson especially deserves forgiveness due to the difficult schedule and his appealing, high snap share. Mixon getting 20 touches a week it tough to ignore, even if it’s been mediocre, but you know what Drake is doing? About the same as Mixon, and the Cardinals are a bit banged up right now at receiver. Add in the Panthers being the worse team against running backs since midseason last year, with 31.9, 23.6, and 20.3 allowed already, and Drake should finally hit in 2020.

OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs

Devin Singletary, Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara

WIDE RECEIVER

Ceedee Lamb $5600 – So you want a piece of the Cowboys fun but don’t want to pay up? How about Lamb… or the receiver that was better than Michael Gallup until Week 4? Funny how much recency bias can affect ownership with Gallup in the Top 10 and Lamb just outside the Top 20. The Browns defense is vulnerable across the board, but it’s their slot corner, Tavierre Thomas, who has been graded the worst. I’m not suggesting Lamb is a guarantee, but just last week, we had concerns over Gallup, and any given week could be a big hit for any Cowboys receiver (Cedrick Wilson included, as we also saw last week).

Preston Williams $5500 – If I like Fitzpatrick, I’m liking the Dolphins passing game, including Williams with the obvious DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. If you want to be rather contrarian and stack this game as a whole, you can play the Fitz-Williams pairing with the Seahawks receivers and come up huge by paying up elsewhere for the discount of Williams as your third receiver and Fitzpatrick compared to Russell Wilson. Even N’Keal Harry and Damiere Byrd had 72 yards each against the Seahawks with the other two secondary receivers totaling 15.7 and 19.8 (if we make Julio Jones second and Calvin Ridley‘s 24.9 first).

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Hunter Renfrow $5300 – The way you attack the Bills is with elusive running backs and underneath receiver work. Even if Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards was playing, Renfrow would still be a sneaky play in this matchup. The Bills pass defense hasn’t been dominant and for the similar receivers, we have Jamison Crowder 13/7/115 and a touchdown in Week 1, Isaiah Ford for 9/7/76 in Week 2, and 6/5/74 with a touchdown for Robert Woods last week. Renfrow could reach 15 points in Week 4.

OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs

Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller?, Amari Cooper, Gallup, Falcons, Rams!

TIGHT END

T.J. Hockenson $5400 – The excitement for Hockenson wore off with him not taking a big step forward with no Kenny Golladay. Interestingly, his usage didn’t change much, and also interesting, the Saints have been vulnerable to tight ends. We saw Darren Waller destroy them in Week 2, but O.J. Howard found the end zone against them in Week 1, and then both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis scored for the Packers last week. I’m thinking Hockenson is a solid bet to keep the run going.

OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs

Dalton Schultz, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas

APA Concerning Matchups

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QBs: Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones

RBs: Myles Gaskin, Antonio Gibson, Adrian Peterson, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones

WRs: Darius Slayton, Buccaneers, T.Y. Hilton, N’Keal Harry, Anthony Miller

TEs: Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Eifert

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