DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 4
Week 4 NFL DFS Sleepers
In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).
As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 4.
Quarterback APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | GB | ATL | 29.0 | +9.8 | 17 | JAX | CIN | 19.2 | -0.0 | |
| 2 | CIN | JAX | 27.2 | +8.0 | 18 | SEA | MIA | 18.7 | -0.5 | |
| 3 | MIA | SEA | 26.9 | +7.6 | 19 | PHI | SAF | 17.6 | -1.6 | |
| 4 | LAV | BUF | 26.0 | +6.7 | 20 | HOU | MIN | 17.4 | -1.8 | |
| 5 | ATL | GB | 24.6 | +5.4 | 21 | TB | LAC | 16.8 | -2.5 | |
| 6 | PIT | TEN | 23.9 | +4.7 | 22 | DEN | NYJ | 16.6 | -2.6 | |
| 7 | DAL | CLE | 23.6 | +4.4 | 23 | LAR | NYG | 16.5 | -2.8 | |
| 8 | DET | NO | 23.2 | +4.0 | 24 | NO | DET | 15.7 | -3.5 | |
| 9 | TEN | PIT | 22.6 | +3.4 | 25 | MIN | HOU | 14.2 | -5.0 | |
| 10 | NYJ | DEN | 21.8 | +2.5 | 26 | LAC | TB | 13.9 | -5.3 | |
| 11 | WSH | BAL | 21.6 | +2.4 | 27 | BUF | LAV | 13.9 | -5.4 | |
| 12 | SAF | PHI | 21.4 | +2.2 | 28 | NYG | LAR | 13.2 | -6.0 | |
| 13 | NE | KC | 20.9 | +1.6 | 29 | KC | NE | 12.9 | -6.4 | |
| 14 | BAL | WSH | 20.5 | +1.2 | 30 | ARI | CAR | 12.6 | -6.6 | |
| 15 | CLE | DAL | 20.4 | +1.2 | 31 | IND | CHI | 11.7 | -7.6 | |
| 16 | CAR | ARI | 20.2 | +1.0 | 32 | CHI | IND | 10.7 | -8.6 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 19.2 | |||||||||
Running Back APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | ARI | CAR | 42.0 | +18.6 | 17 | HOU | MIN | 22.6 | -0.9 | |
| 2 | BUF | LAV | 38.3 | +14.9 | 18 | DEN | NYJ | 22.3 | -1.1 | |
| 3 | MIN | HOU | 35.9 | +12.5 | 19 | TEN | PIT | 22.0 | -1.4 | |
| 4 | ATL | GB | 32.5 | +9.1 | 20 | CAR | ARI | 21.4 | -2.0 | |
| 5 | IND | CHI | 31.5 | +8.1 | 21 | DAL | CLE | 21.0 | -2.4 | |
| 6 | NYG | LAR | 31.3 | +7.9 | 22 | PHI | SAF | 20.1 | -3.3 | |
| 7 | NO | DET | 30.1 | +6.7 | 23 | BAL | WSH | 19.9 | -3.5 | |
| 8 | PIT | TEN | 29.1 | +5.7 | 24 | LAC | TB | 19.4 | -4.0 | |
| 9 | JAX | CIN | 27.5 | +4.1 | 25 | KC | NE | 17.8 | -5.6 | |
| 10 | CIN | JAX | 24.8 | +1.4 | 26 | CLE | DAL | 17.0 | -6.4 | |
| 11 | GB | ATL | 24.1 | +0.7 | 27 | NYJ | DEN | 16.9 | -6.5 | |
| 12 | SEA | MIA | 24.0 | +0.6 | 28 | TB | LAC | 14.6 | -8.8 | |
| 13 | LAR | NYG | 23.9 | +0.4 | 29 | CHI | IND | 13.6 | -9.8 | |
| 14 | SAF | PHI | 23.9 | +0.4 | 30 | DET | NO | 12.3 | -11.1 | |
| 15 | NE | KC | 23.2 | -0.2 | 31 | WSH | BAL | 12.1 | -11.4 | |
| 16 | LAV | BUF | 22.7 | -0.7 | 32 | MIA | SEA | 11.4 | -12.0 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 23.4 | |||||||||
Wide Receiver APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | MIA | SEA | 67.3 | +35.9 | 17 | WSH | BAL | 30.4 | -1.1 | |
| 2 | HOU | MIN | 47.1 | +15.7 | 18 | SEA | MIA | 29.4 | -2.1 | |
| 3 | TEN | PIT | 43.6 | +12.1 | 19 | GB | ATL | 28.9 | -2.6 | |
| 4 | DAL | CLE | 42.7 | +11.2 | 20 | NO | DET | 28.5 | -3.0 | |
| 5 | LAV | BUF | 39.9 | +8.4 | 21 | BAL | WSH | 28.2 | -3.3 | |
| 6 | NYJ | DEN | 39.8 | +8.4 | 22 | BUF | LAV | 27.0 | -4.4 | |
| 7 | ATL | GB | 37.1 | +5.7 | 23 | PHI | SAF | 26.1 | -5.4 | |
| 8 | KC | NE | 35.8 | +4.3 | 24 | DEN | NYJ | 25.7 | -5.8 | |
| 9 | PIT | TEN | 35.7 | +4.3 | 25 | CAR | ARI | 24.7 | -6.8 | |
| 10 | LAR | NYG | 35.4 | +4.0 | 26 | MIN | HOU | 23.4 | -8.1 | |
| 11 | SAF | PHI | 32.5 | +1.0 | 27 | DET | NO | 21.9 | -9.6 | |
| 12 | CIN | JAX | 32.4 | +0.9 | 28 | CHI | IND | 21.6 | -9.9 | |
| 13 | JAX | CIN | 32.0 | +0.5 | 29 | NE | KC | 20.9 | -10.6 | |
| 14 | CLE | DAL | 31.3 | -0.2 | 30 | IND | CHI | 20.7 | -10.8 | |
| 15 | ARI | CAR | 31.1 | -0.4 | 31 | TB | LAC | 17.8 | -13.7 | |
| 16 | LAC | TB | 30.8 | -0.7 | 32 | NYG | LAR | 17.5 | -13.9 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 31.5 | |||||||||
Tight End APA
| RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | RANK | TEAM | OPP | APA | +/- | |
| 1 | DET | NO | 26.2 | +15.1 | 17 | TB | LAC | 11.5 | +0.5 | |
| 2 | GB | ATL | 23.8 | +12.8 | 18 | NYG | LAR | 11.1 | -0.0 | |
| 3 | DAL | CLE | 19.5 | +8.5 | 19 | CAR | ARI | 10.2 | -0.9 | |
| 4 | PIT | TEN | 17.4 | +6.4 | 20 | NO | DET | 8.7 | -2.3 | |
| 5 | BAL | WSH | 16.2 | +5.2 | 21 | LAC | TB | 7.8 | -3.3 | |
| 6 | LAV | BUF | 15.9 | +4.8 | 22 | TEN | PIT | 7.4 | -3.7 | |
| 7 | WSH | BAL | 15.7 | +4.6 | 23 | PHI | SAF | 7.4 | -3.7 | |
| 8 | SAF | PHI | 14.4 | +3.4 | 24 | JAX | CIN | 7.3 | -3.7 | |
| 9 | CLE | DAL | 14.2 | +3.1 | 25 | ATL | GB | 7.1 | -4.0 | |
| 10 | CIN | JAX | 13.6 | +2.6 | 26 | MIA | SEA | 6.9 | -4.2 | |
| 11 | DEN | NYJ | 12.5 | +1.4 | 27 | SEA | MIA | 5.7 | -5.3 | |
| 12 | NYJ | DEN | 12.3 | +1.3 | 28 | CHI | IND | 5.3 | -5.8 | |
| 13 | BUF | LAV | 12.0 | +0.9 | 29 | HOU | MIN | 2.9 | -8.1 | |
| 14 | MIN | HOU | 11.7 | +0.7 | 30 | ARI | CAR | 2.6 | -8.4 | |
| 15 | NE | KC | 11.7 | +0.6 | 31 | LAR | NYG | 2.3 | -8.8 | |
| 16 | IND | CHI | 11.6 | +0.6 | 32 | KC | NE | 0.8 | -10.2 | |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 11.1 | |||||||||
FanDuel Week 4 Sleepers
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7100 – I’m genuinely surprised more aren’t immediately plugging in Fitzpatrick. Have we not seen what teams are doing against the Seahawks… which includes what they’re doing to opponents, thereby forcing the pace and score? Maybe everyone is fixated on the top names, and it’s understandable with a few quarterbacks blazing hot to start the year, but the Seahawks broke the wide receiver metric (being a bit tongue-in-cheek), and they’ve allowed a low of 397 passing yards.
OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs
Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford
RUNNING BACK
Jonathan Taylor $7500 – So, we’re off Taylor that fast? The Colts were resting their offense in Week 4 with Jacoby Brissett even coming in to relieve Philip Rivers. Taylor is still the same running back people were tripping over themselves to chase after Marlon Mack got hurt. Additionally, the Bears are surprisingly susceptible to running backs with four double-digit scores allowed, and allowed to… Adrian Peterson, Dion Lewis, Todd Gurley and Brian Hill. Not exactly the upper echelon of running back talent, huh?
Kenyan Drake $7000 – I believe it’s due to the pricing, but projections have David Johnson and Joe Mixon with higher ownership. Johnson especially deserves forgiveness due to the difficult schedule and his appealing, high snap share. Mixon getting 20 touches a week it tough to ignore, even if it’s been mediocre, but you know what Drake is doing? About the same as Mixon, and the Cardinals are a bit banged up right now at receiver. Add in the Panthers being the worse team against running backs since midseason last year, with 31.9, 23.6, and 20.3 allowed already, and Drake should finally hit in 2020.
OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs
Devin Singletary, Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara
WIDE RECEIVER
Ceedee Lamb $5600 – So you want a piece of the Cowboys fun but don’t want to pay up? How about Lamb… or the receiver that was better than Michael Gallup until Week 4? Funny how much recency bias can affect ownership with Gallup in the Top 10 and Lamb just outside the Top 20. The Browns defense is vulnerable across the board, but it’s their slot corner, Tavierre Thomas, who has been graded the worst. I’m not suggesting Lamb is a guarantee, but just last week, we had concerns over Gallup, and any given week could be a big hit for any Cowboys receiver (Cedrick Wilson included, as we also saw last week).
Preston Williams $5500 – If I like Fitzpatrick, I’m liking the Dolphins passing game, including Williams with the obvious DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. If you want to be rather contrarian and stack this game as a whole, you can play the Fitz-Williams pairing with the Seahawks receivers and come up huge by paying up elsewhere for the discount of Williams as your third receiver and Fitzpatrick compared to Russell Wilson. Even N’Keal Harry and Damiere Byrd had 72 yards each against the Seahawks with the other two secondary receivers totaling 15.7 and 19.8 (if we make Julio Jones second and Calvin Ridley‘s 24.9 first).
Hunter Renfrow $5300 – The way you attack the Bills is with elusive running backs and underneath receiver work. Even if Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards was playing, Renfrow would still be a sneaky play in this matchup. The Bills pass defense hasn’t been dominant and for the similar receivers, we have Jamison Crowder 13/7/115 and a touchdown in Week 1, Isaiah Ford for 9/7/76 in Week 2, and 6/5/74 with a touchdown for Robert Woods last week. Renfrow could reach 15 points in Week 4.
OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs
Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller?, Amari Cooper, Gallup, Falcons, Rams!
TIGHT END
T.J. Hockenson $5400 – The excitement for Hockenson wore off with him not taking a big step forward with no Kenny Golladay. Interestingly, his usage didn’t change much, and also interesting, the Saints have been vulnerable to tight ends. We saw Darren Waller destroy them in Week 2, but O.J. Howard found the end zone against them in Week 1, and then both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis scored for the Packers last week. I’m thinking Hockenson is a solid bet to keep the run going.
OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs
Dalton Schultz, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas
APA Concerning Matchups
QBs: Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones
RBs: Myles Gaskin, Antonio Gibson, Adrian Peterson, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones
WRs: Darius Slayton, Buccaneers, T.Y. Hilton, N’Keal Harry, Anthony Miller
TEs: Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Eifert
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