DFS Pace of Play for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In DFS world, that’s a massive considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Stats to Know
1. Arizona was a fickle team in 2020. They had the largest discrepancy between game scripts that were neutral and positive. When they were leading (which wasn’t much), they averaged almost four seconds per play slower. You could see that when they had success in the second half on the back of Kenyan Drake. The Cardinals played the 49ers much closer last year than people realize losing by three points in Week 9 and ten points in Week 11. Although this game has a 47-point total, San Francisco was notoriously slow last year ranking dead last in seconds per play when trailing. They seem bent on running the ball and controlling the clock with their elite defense that allowed 191 passing yards per game, best in the NFL. At 47.5, if Arizona somehow jumps out to a lead, this game could hit the under.