DFS Pace of Play for Super Bowl LV

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in a neutral game script.

Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown Super Bowl LV and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.

Overarching Thoughts

The Chiefs go into this game as the obvious 3-point favorite despite Tampa Bay technically hosting the first “home” Super Bowl game ever. But the public perception is that Patrick Mahomes and company are going to roll putting up boatloads of points. If we peel back the curtain, it’s clear that Kansas City isn’t quite the offensive juggernaut the media has portrayed them to be. In fact, Andy Reid has chosen to pick his spots in 2020 and “go for the kill” by waiting patiently and taking what defenses have given him.

This is never more apparent than Kansas City’s success (or lack thereof) versus the spread over the last three months.

Date Opponent Score Line Covered?
1/24 BUF W 38-24 -3 YES
1/17 CLE W 22-17 -7.5 NO
1/3 LAC L 21-38 +7 NO
12/27 ATL W 17-14 -11 NO
12/20 @NO W 32-29 -2.5 YES
12/13 @MIA W 33-27 -7.5 NO
12/7 DEN W 22-16 -13 NO
11/29 @TB W 27-24 -3.5 NO
11/23 @LV W 35-31 -7.5 NO
11/8 CAR W 33-31 -10 NO

Depending on the sportsbook, 3 or 3.5 points is almost negligible at this point. It gives us the impression that as an FG favorite, Kansas City is vulnerable in certain game scripts. The most valuable part of a Showdown slate analysis is getting different. Here are a few confidence builders when constructed your lineup:

  • Be willing to go with “the other guy” when selecting pass catchers
  • Be willing to change your opinion as injury reports come out.  Injuries open up an opportunity for depth players to be fantasy viable at $200 to $2,000.
  • Be willing to leave money on the table.

I’ll highlight three-game scripts that are the easiest to project as well as a roster construction combination for each.

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Tampa Bay Kansas City
Plays Per Game 17th 9th
Pace of Play 7th 14th
Yards Per Play 7th T-1st
20+ Yard Pass Plays 3rd 2nd
RZ Defense 19th 32nd

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