DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Another Monday, another double header of foozeball. We’re tackling things in two formats: Classic and Showdown. Make sure you differentiate the player salaries and pricing structure for each format as listed below.
- Classic gives us access to the whole player pool from both games.
- Showdown narrows the focus to one game at a time, where you select a captain and five FLEX players.
DK Lines – TB @ DET
Spread: DET -6
Total: 53.5
Team Totals: DET 29.75, TB 23.75
Money is flowing toward TB. Around 72% of bets and 63% of the handle are on the Buccaneers to cover, yet the line has stayed near +6, showing either sharp resistance or that books are fine taking TB action. The total has floated between 52.5 and 53.5, hinting at balanced Over interest. Overall, the public likes the underdog, but the market isn’t following.
Sunday morning, ProphetX showed $23K on DET -6 and only $200 on TB. Novig had -6.5, where 85% of tickets favored TB, though volume was tiny at $3.3K. By late Monday morning, that flipped. ProphetX showed $56,418 on TB ML (+240) vs just $6,880 on DET (-245). Sharps appear to be piling onto TB ML as kickoff nears, likely reacting to Detroit’s banged-up secondary.
Injuries:
- Emeka Egbuka – Q (hamstring), however it’s highly unlikely he plays.
- Mike Evans – Q (hamstring)
- Bucky Irving – Out
- Chris Godwin – Out
- Lions top three safeties and two CBs – Out
DK Lines – HOU @ SEA
Spread: SEA -3
Total: 41.5
Team Totals: SEA 22.25, HOU 19.25
The public is backing SEA, with about two-thirds of bets and nearly 70% of the money on the Seahawks. Even with that lopsided action, the line has held at HOU +3, suggesting sportsbooks are fine with their exposure, and sharps may be leaning HOU. The total opened near 42.5 and slipped to 41.5, showing steady pressure on the Under as bettors expect a slower game between two strong defenses.
- By Sunday night, ProphetX showed $18K on Houston +3 and only $5K on Seattle. Novig had $3.8K on Houston +2.5 compared to just $400 on Seattle. Both platforms show confidence in Houston’s defense keeping this close, especially with extra rest after their bye.
- As of Monday morning, sharp money is all over HOU. SEA sits at just $150 while Houston has drawn more than $22K in bets to win/cover.
Injuries:
- Christian Kirk – Out
- Joe Mixon – Out, seriously, where is this dude. What is going on?
CLASSIC (Two Games)
Draft from both games on the slate. You build a full roster (QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, DEF) under the salary cap, mixing and matching players across four teams.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield | $6,600
Baker is shaping up as a non-negotiable core play. He’s the third favorite to win MVP thanks to leading all QBs in total EPA and boasting a spectacular 12:1 TD/INT ratio. Hello, high floor and massive ceiling. His matchup is a perfect schematic fit as he is the NFL’s league leader in Passer Rating against Zone Coverage (121.2), and he faces a DET defense that runs it on 64.6% of their snaps (9th most). With the game total sitting north of 50 points, this is a shootout environment for a QB who is playing the best football of his career. At an elastic price point, he is a solid building block to afford the top-tier WRs where he’ll carry a deserved 35-40% pOwn. His only knocks: he hasn’t scored a rushing TD and is the most popular QB.
Also note, Detroit’s secondary is in horrible shape. They will be without their top three safeties and top two cornerbacks. Who better to exploit this?
Jared Goff | $6,000
TB’s CB Zach McCollum is giving up the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs with 10+. That’s an easy target that doesn’t pair well with the fact that Jared Garfff leads the league in catchable balls thrown, and TB only has a middling pressure rate of 31.47%. Goff offers tried-and-true stacking options like Amon-Ra, Jamo, Gibbs, and LaPorta. After studying last week’s double header (see below), he could be a 2+ stack possibility, given that the Lions offense instills confidence in those known target hogs. Baker’s stacking partners are more volatile due to injury and limited opportunities.
Contrarian note: While the pOwn for C.J. Stroud and Sam Darnold might hover around the 15 – 20% range, their underlying game environments suggest they are clear leverage opportunities. Darnold has been excellent, but the Texans have only allowed three passing TDs on the year. The Seahawks have given up way more passing yardage (250+ per game) and 10 passing TDs.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs | $7,500
Gibb’s owners are like, “Ya’ll got any of them ceiling games anywhere?” He’s only hit 3x PP$ once this year and was under 20 DK points in every other matchup. When you first look at the 2025 metrics, Gibbs looks a lot more like David Montgomery than Jahmyr Gibbs. Notably, he’s dropped in targets every game, going from 10 in Week 1 to three, six, two, two, and two. Montgomery actually had the same amount last week. Tonight is not a slate where you can pick all the top players, so there needs to be a gut check on what lineups need to look like. In a game of expected offensive fireworks, finding the right Lion(s) is imperative for salary control. With the Lions expected for 4 TDs, there’s always a chance he could soak up one or two of those, as he’s had nine two-TD games in his career.
Rachaad White | $6,400
There is a reason Rachaad White was a starting RB and then wasn’t: efficiency. He’s averaging 20 DK points over the last two games with no Bucky Irving, but he’s only averaging 3.35 yards per carry. That doesn’t matter when you cross the goal line, and he’s done it three times in those games. He should get a normal allotment of catches thanks to his passing involvement and continue to be the goal-line back.
Kenneth Walker III | $ 5,600 or Zach Charbonnet | $5,100
The Seahawks average 27.5 runs per game and do so through their one-two punch of Walker/Charbonnet. The Texans’ defense is a rough matchup (see below), but one area they are weak in is their EPA/rush at -1%. If SEA handles business at home, there will be opportunities for both of these backs. With three rushing TDs each, it’s going to come down to who gets the score(s). It’s never a surprise to see Walker break off a 40-yard gain, get tackled at the one, and then see Charbs find pay dirt. Walker is the more effective runner in every metric due to the fact that he’s seeing fewer defenders in the box (7.65 to 7.95). Neither back is getting much in terms of target share (5.84% and 3.73%), so this is a true dice roll on which to play because it will take some huge rushing yards total or TD to pay off.
David Montgomery | $5,500
Knuckles brings us a nice price point on a slate where we need some savings to get up to the WRs. He’s expected to be in about a third of lineups due to two reasons:
- His incredible 5.14 yards per carry
- Four rushing TDs, even though Gibbs is now the red zone RB.
Sonic (Gibbs) is getting a little under 60% of all RB opportunities/red zone work while Montgomery takes the other 40%. He’s still gotten three of his TDs in the red zone, meaning they weren’t lucky scores. He’ll still get his chances there.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,200
Every year, Amon-Ra is getting better in the TD department. He’s gone from five to six, 10, 12, and is now on pace for 16 TDs this year. His PPR safety is something we’ve always had, and scores are a true cherry on top. He’s third in the league in catches (44) plus a 30.54% target share, but that bumps up to 40% when he’s in the Red Zone. In fact, every single one of his six TDs this year is inside that area. The Buccaneers have struggled in RZ defense with 0% interception and only a 3.57% sack rate. In a game with an astronomical over/under, he is the most expensive for a reason and should be relied upon at every part of the field.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $7,900
JSN is killing it this year and leads the league in receiving yardage (696) + target share (36.36%). You can’t say one bad thing about his performance as a bona fide stud muffin. He now gets his most complex challenge yet because the six teams he’s faced coming into this game all rank 16th or lower in passing yards allowed. The Texans are 3rd in that department while only giving up 18.4 fantasy points per game to WRs. This matchup is a true unstoppable force meets an unmovable object situation.
Nico Collins | $7,100
Unlike the Texans, the Seahawks are much more generous to opposing WRs. They rank 23rd, allowing 28.1 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks run a ton of zone (81%), and Nico leads the Texans WRs at target share against zone (25%). With no Christian Kirk tonight, this is an excellent opportunity for Nico and a chance for CJ Stroud to hyper-target his number one target.
Mike Evans | $6,500
Baker is doing everything well, and his pass catchers are benefiting from it, even though they are doing their best San Fransico 49er impersonation when it comes to staying healthy (hint, they can’t). With the entire Lions secondary banged up (literally, five of their starter are out), Evans gets a tasty matchup against a Lions defense allowing a 29th-ranked, 31.9 fantasy points per game to WRs. Tonight, his buddies Godwin and Egbuka (aka EG BIG BOO) can’t cannibalize him, meaning he should eat even more than usual as long as he truly is healthy. DET wins by creating pressure (3rd in league) and making QBs make mistakes (7th in INT%). But if Baker continues to rock, Evans’ return from a hamstring injury could be fruitful in the game predicted to put up the most points on the scoreboard.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Jameson Williams | $5,000
Jamo is maturing in front of our eyes, and the play calling in DET leaned into him as a more rounded receiver instead of his usual deep threat skill set last week. He had seven targets, catching all six for 66 and a TD. The Lions centralize targets to Amon Ra and Jamo as the two combine for 47% of the team’s targets. At only $5,000, a long TD is in the cards thanks to the point total and the Buccaneers’ D giving up a bottom-12, 6.46 yards per pass attempt. With the league’s fifth-highest 16.79 aDOT, he’s a solid DFS piece at only $5k.
Dart Throws
Sterling Shepard | $4,500 or Tez Johnson | $4,200
The Buccaneer’s’ passing catch corps gets Mike Evans back just in time, but with (likely, but unconfirmed at the time of this writing) no Egbuka and Chris Godwin, someone else for the Bucs needs to lineup out wide. Last week, the snap share split up as follows.
- Tez Johnson 72%
- Sterling Shepard 49%
- Kameron Johnson 49%
- Ryan Miller 25%
One thing the Lions do incredibly well is keep the middle of the field closed at 60.5% of plays (third in the league). Meaning, slot WRs and inline TEs won’t have as much real estate as they might against most other teams. The question will be, who benefits the most from those outside routes, who lines up where, and who will be in two WR sets? The Lions have given up 13 passing TDs on the year, and whoever is on the outside may be able to bite into that. Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard both dominate snaps in the slot (126, 120) while Tez and Kameron have only seen 32 and 11. If this year’s usage tells us anything, it’s that Tez should be out wide in 11 personnel.
Jayden Higgins | $3,500 or Xavier Hutchinson | $3,900
With no Christian Kirk, Hutch or Higgins will be needed against the Seahawks. SEA is giving up plenty of receiving yards, leaving some meat on the bone for anyone not named Nico. Hutch is on the field more, running 55 more routes than Higgins. But Higgins is leading TPRR at 14% to 11%. We’ve seen two games with no Kirk. Hutch ran 71% of the routes with five targets while Jayden Higgins ran 41% of the routes with four targets. Jaylin Noel also saw some work, running 36% of the routes with two targets. At sub $4k, this is a great dart throw if one of them catches 5+ balls or gets a TD around 5 – 10% pOwn.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta | $4,300
In this evening’s expected shootout, LaPorta and his sweet mustache can show out against a Buccaneers team allowing 11.4 FPA per game to opposing TEs. He’s an integral part of Detroit’s plan, being third in team targets and averaging 5.5 per game. At only $4.3k, he’s a nice stack partner for access to that 29 TIP the Lions carry into MNF.
Cade Otton | $3,700
Cade looks to benefit in the slot duty department tonight. He and Sterling Shepard split duties in that part of the field. The Lions are stingy against the middle, though, making life harder on Otton because the middle is closed so often. However, they’re still giving up 10.8 fantasy points per game to TEs, and no other TE on the Bucs roster even has a catch this year. His 11.64% target share leaves much desired, but with limited options on this slate, he is a possibility if slot opportunities increase with no Egbuka.
Dalton Schultz | $3,600
Schultz has been a steady contributor over the last three games, with five catches in each. He hasn’t gotten in the end zone yet, but the constant involvement shows he’s due. The NFL average for expected TDs in 2024 was every 11.5 catches and 155.5 yards. He has 21 catches and 186 yards, meaning he’s due for a TD at some point, considering his 18.26% target share.
Defense
No lie, all four of these teams have dominated opposing teams’ DSTs in 2025. The Lions have only given up 1.2 FPA, the Seahawks 3.3, Texans 4.5, and Bucs 4.7. Meaning all teams are limiting TOs and not allowing many sacks. The main reason the Seahawks and Texans will be popular is because of the substantially lower game total. With SEA/HOU being 12.5 points lower than TB/DET, it makes sense.
Seahawks | $3,000
The Seahawks are far and away the most popular D, coming in around 40 – 45% own, while the next closest Texans sit at 22.5 – 27.5%. Considering the low total of this game and the fact that the Seahawks give up an average of only 19.5 points per game, this is a fine play at $3k, because the Texans only average 21.6 real life points per game. That number includes the 44-point explosion against a depleted Ravens team two weeks ago. The Seahawks are a much tougher test for Stroud & Co.
Texans | $2,700
The Texans have an excellent defense and rank 3rd in all defensive EPA. Notably, it’s how limiting they can be to chunk yardage on both the ground and through the air. They’ve only allowed three passing TDs on the season. Add that to the fact that they’re only allowing 90.6 rushing and 193.8 passing yards per game.
Classic Contest Review from MNF Week 6
This breakdown shows what happened in Week 6’s MNF doubleheader in the $5 Flea Flicker. It breaks down lineups and provides you with the averages, maximums, and minimums across the top 100. I chose this tournament because of the decent field size (23,593), entry size (150 max), slate size (two games), and reasonable stake ($5). The winner did a WAS onslaught (5 players from one team).
Winning lineup:
| Score | Ownership | Duplicates | Salary | Lineups |
| 181.74 | 356.40% | 0 | $45,100 |
The first thing you should notice is there are five Commanders on this lineups (Daniels + McCaffrey, Moore, Ertz, Bill). This goes to show that getting weird in these large GPPs can pay dividends when lightning strikes. When building, really make yourself uncomfortable on two game slates. If you end up with lineups that seem comfortable, so did a lot of other people.
Also know how risky this was at only $45,100. No other lineup in the top 100 was under $47,700.
These are some basic metrics from the top 100 lineups. The reason I include these is if you’re using the Optimizer. These are the settings you can use to hopefully create the same result. This contest had 23,593 entries.
| Projected Score | Actual Score | Ownership | Dupes | Salary | |
| Average | 126.67 | 175.4158 | 404.11% | 5.76 | $49,298 |
| Maximum | 129.58 | 181.74 | 422.90% | 16 | $50,000 |
| Minimum | 118.48 | 173.24 | 360.80% | 0 | $45,100 |
Classic Two-Game, Game Theory:
- Always be willing to leave salary on the table. The field thinks lineups need to be $49.4k+, but many sub-$50k builds land in the top 100. Over time, it’s those lower-salary uniques that give us the best shot at big money. Football is unpredictable, and when the right combo hits, it’s always better to have it solo.
- Don’t be afraid to take two RBs from the same team if you’re trying to get unique. Most of the field avoids that combo, but if the game script hits, it’s a huge leverage point.
- Super Onslaught (five players from one team) is a viable play. Last week was a perfect example.
- Another risky but rewarding move is going with an unstacked QB.
SHOWDOWN – TB @ DET (One Game)
Now, let’s turn our attention to Showdown: a one-game, six-roster-spot lineup. You choose a Captain, aka CPT (1.5x salary and points), and five FLEX players. Here are some resources you can use for a quick catch-up on strategy.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat Showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
| Top CPT Plays | Baker Mayfield | Jahmyr Gibbs | |||
| Top Flex Plays | Jared Goff | Rachaad White | Mike Evans | ||
| GPP Leverage | David Montgomery | Jameson Williams | Sam LaPorta | Cade Otton | |
| Dart Throws | Tez Johnson | Chase McLaughlin | Jake Bates | Isaac TeSlaa |
SHOWDOWN – HOU @ SEA (One Game)
| Top CPT Plays | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Nico Collins | C.J. Stroud | Sam Darnold | |
| Top Flex Plays | Kenneth Walker III | Zach Charbonnet | Dalton Schultz | Cooper Kupp | |
| GPP Leverage | Woody Marks | Either K | Nick Chubb | Either DST | AJ Barner |
| Dart Throws | Jayden Higgins | Xavier Hutchinson | Tory Horton | Jaylin Noel | Elijah Arroyo |
Showdown Contest Review from MNF Week 6
Winning lineup:
| Score | Ownership | Duplicates | Salary | Lineups |
| 129.74 | 194.90% | 0 | $45,600 |
These are some basic metrics from the top 100 lineups of the Showdown Flea Flicker. The reason I include these is if you’re using the Optimizer. These are the settings you can use to hopefully create the same result. This contest had 8,318 entries.
| Projected Score | Actual Score | Ownership | Dupes | Salary | |
| Average | 90.87 | 122.36 | 198.24% | 6.56 | $48,563 |
| Maximum | 93.42 | 127.67 | 216.20% | 16.00 | $50,000 |
| Minimum | 81.84 | 120.94 | 150.60% | 0.00 | $44,800 |
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