Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

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“Mack Daddy 4 Lyfe!” is what I texted Betz on Sunday morning when he asked about my conviction of the great Mack Hollins, Raiders WR1.

As you read through this article, it will become apparent that all of us who rostered him likely fell backwards into a punt play who somehow almost 10xed on his salary. Nobody including Hollins’s mama could’ve seen this outcome. Count your blessings folks.

Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listenersand DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 3 Cash Lineup

The Thought Process

For Week 3, the slate honestly felt even more stressful than the previous two weeks. Betz and I discussed our cash construction process on the DFS podcast each week along with premium articles in the DFS Pass.

Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.

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Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

  • In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturdays), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week. In that group were David Montgomery, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Mack Hollins.
  • Montgomery’s opportunity, matchup, and salary were a trifecta of goodness waiting to happen on the football field. He gets injured early but with nearly 70 percent of the field utilizing him, the pain isn’t as severe. Of course, Khalil Herbert goes off as the RB1 on this slate. The process felt great. The results were just plain sad.
  • The Allen + Diggs stack was something I didn’t budge on the entire week. I did bring up some concern of Diggs’ popularity and the matchup with Xavien Howard on the podcast giving me a reason to be underweight in tournaments. The passing volume for Allen for unreal but the second half was a colossal disaster in efficiency. Allen still exceeded his projection so not much regret other than switching onto a cheaper Jalen Hurts.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

  • My pool of other RBs this week consisted of the high-end guys (Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, & D’Andre Swift), the mid-tier (Leonard Fournette), and cheaper guys (Miles Sanders & Dameon Pierce). With Montgomery locked in, my first lineup constructions consisted of Monty, Joe Mixon, and Leonard Fournette. As you’ll see below, there was an excruciating end to picking out my RBs this week.
  • At TE, I had Irv Smith, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedert on my shortlist. Higbee had the insane snaps, Goedert had a great matchup and team implied total, and Irv was the cheap one coming off eight targets. My biggest issue with Irv was his popularity. Yes, in cash it doesn’t matter quite as much but his floor each week can be a full-on goose. I sided with the savings Irv opened up knowing Kelce and Andrews wouldn’t be too popular based on their salaries.
  • At DST, I knew I wanted to go sub-$3K with the Eagles ($2900), Panthers ($2600), Raiders ($2500), and Jaguars ($2300) as the final group. The Eagles felt like the most upside, the Panthers felt the safest, and the other two were simply due to savings. As the line from the LAC/JAX kept shifting from -7 to -3.5 before kickoff, it felt easier to full-on punt the position even if Justin Herbert was going to play. They also were in the late window.
  • At WR, with Diggs and Hollins locked in, the biggest issue this week was figuring out if I was going to add another WR in the FLEX. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7200) was someone who made me look stupid the first two weeks, much to the chagrin of Betz on the DFS Podcast. His price was getting expensive but the matchup against MIN in the slot and his upside were too spicy. I loved Jaylen Waddle ($6800), Tee Higgins ($6100), Curtis Samuel ($5100), and rookie Chris Olave at only $4500.
  • I’ll let you in on a little back-and-forth between Betz and myself. Brandin Cooks was someone in Betz’s pool but someone I wasn’t too bullish on throughout the week. The matchup was one I was fading but the news of Bears CB Jaylon Johnson being declared out really messed with me. I was a bit nervous fading Amon-Ra too…

  • I sided with “safer plays” with Betz’s reasoning than my own after not heeding his advice the first two weeks. I chose Cooks + Fournette over Miles Sanders + Jaylen Waddle to also give me some flexibility if things went south in the early slate. Because this week was so heavy on the early games and I knew Fournette would be chalk, I sided with that parachute strategy rather than being unable to maneuver if things went south.
  • LATE SWAP: On Friday’s DFS podcast, we had a discussion about late swap at the beginning of the episode. I did not know that I would be taking my own advice this week. Before Mack Hollins‘ late TD, I was all prepared to swap off of Leonard Fournette and JAX DST because of how chalky I would be. My Brandin Cooks gamble did not pay off and I was behind the cash line. Looking at the slate and our Roster Percentage Report, the only semi-popular plays left after Fournette was Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Romeo Doubs. You can see the gamut of options Betz and I texted out.
  • I likely would’ve sided with Betz with the GB DST + CPat option as a leverage point. But once we got that TD and jumped ahead of the cash line, I comfortable staying put.
  • Key takeaways:
    • Late swap when you are behind the cash line with only chalky options left.
    • If you do swap, consider leverage points and roster percentage as tie-breakers.
    • Don’t late swap if you have 4+ players left or currently hitting the cash line after morning slate.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

  • Brandin Cooks. I sided with the target totals and Betz rather than following my own heart. The heart wants what the heart wants. I was swayed so much by CB Jaylon Johnson going out.

2022 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.

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Week DK Pts H2H Win %
1 147.02 65%
2 106.90 46%
3 122.86 77%

Comments

Derek Sanchez says:

You guys rock

greek512@gmail.com says:

Hollins was in 4 of my lineups. Thanks for mentioning him last week. $$$

Cody says:

Just barely getting into DFS and this structured approach is really beneficial for me. I was bailed out by Allen/Diggs/Singletary stack in my lineups but still ended up under.

pin says:

Just to give an example of how variable H2H match-ups can be, I had a really similar score in my Cash lineup (121.46) but only cashed on 40% (4/10) this week. Annoyingly I was at 70% until the last TB drive and the Lenny plays tipped 3 of my opponents over the edge.

Thankfully the line-up cashed in over all my Double-Ups/50-50s. It was close though – I was in a pretty great position after the morning games but had no players left in the afternoon slate so was just watching points nervously.

For reference my lineup (DK) was; Hurts, Mixon, Montgomery, Diggs, A St Brown, Hollins, I Smith Jr, C Samuel, Jets.

Bailed out by some massive performances by a few key players, but a lot of disappointments I need to take a closer look at

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