Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
I’m going to keep this short and sweet.
I’m still in Christmas mode with the family but I thought sharing my cash lineup would give some hope. Others, can mope alongside this lineup.
The goal of this article is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 16 Cash Lineup
The Thought Process
Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturdays), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week.
- Gardner Minshew was in the moment we got news on Monday about Jalen Hurts’ injury. He was way too cheap in a great game environment to move off him. He far exceeded
- I also knew Derrick Henry was in this lineup as soon as I knew he was playing the Texans. The issue was where to go with the other RBs.
- I knew I was punting with Daniel Bellinger at TE early on. He was cheap in the NYG/MIN game I liked.
- Missing out on Justin Jefferson was the hardest decision point. A 3RB build ended up being taken over forcing in JJetts. Betz and I both loved having builds with both Henry and CMC in it. Dalvin Cook was also a top-3 RB play so I went that route of jamming in these three over a more balanced build. I valued total touches over ceiling which ultimately doomed this lineup despite a couple of flames.
- The WRs were the toughest decisions. Beyond Jefferson, I loved DK Metcalf as well making him my slate breaker on Friday’s podcast. Outside of Juju Smith-Schuster, I was pleased with the results. D.J. Moore was misplaced given his role and matchup versus the Lions and Richie James was the punt play of the week.
- Because my lineup was stars and scrub approach, I had to save in a number of areas. The Bears defense was the stone minimum. Earlier in the week, I was up a bit higher with the Ravens ($3200), Patriots ($2700), and finally the Eagles ($2200).
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- I’m a bit sad I went with CMC + Dalvin Cook over trying to construct a build with Justin Jefferson in it.
- I didn’t love playing two cheap Giants in the same lineup. They both worked out fine except for the fact a chalky TJ Hockenson went off.
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.
|H2H Win %
|All the Chalk Hits
|Trey Lance Pain, Mark Andrews Salvage
|Mack Hollins FTW
|Jonathan Taylor Nose Dive
|This Lineup Could Do No Wrong
|The Mike Evans Let Down
|Joe Burrow + the Top-3 RBs
|OFF for Family
|Justin Fields Goes Bonkers
|Kamara & Waddle Let Downs
|Not a Single Flame in Sight
|The Josh Jacobs Soul Crusher
|Burrow + Perine Doing Work
|Goff & 3 Early TDs Not Enough
|Zay Jones Trifecta
|CMC Bottoms Out
It was rough sledding Christmas weekend. If you bought into CMC, I won’t apologize. He’s great. It just didn’t work out.