Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 4 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $5 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 22,988 entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
Unfiltered Gut Reaction
- Oh baby eating the Montgomery chalk never tasted so good.
- Jalen Hurts was the right choice. But Mahomes was the better choice.
- Oh no is Cooper gone? Oh wait he’s back. And a tuddy!
- Where is Odell Beckham?
- It took a while but you knew the Yeti was going to eat.
- J-E-T-S! I’ve never been more excited for a min. priced DST.
- But for real… where is Odell Beckham?
- Oh boy Davante and Dissly need to carry this squad.
The Thought Process
Instead of working through every individual player, I want to highlight my thought process and why I made these selections.
- This lineup (and half the field’s lineups) started with Derrick Henry. There was no way I was going to fade the Big Dog in a favorable matchup despite his salary being somewhat expensive.
- Amari Cooper’s salary also dictated that he was one of the better point per dollar plays on the slate. I chose to pair Cooper with Terrace Marshall Jr. over D.J. Moore to save and differentiate myself a little from chalk. I loved Marshall’s matchup in the slot and the salary ($4,000) was asking him to simply put up a 5-35 type of line. [Narrator: He did not.] In retrospect, my love for Marshall, wanting to be different from the field, and believing in his talent definitely was a blind spot.
- For most of the week, I had Patrick Mahomes in my lineup and I was pretty set on him being my guy. I loved his road splits and wanted to stack him with Tyreek Hill. As the week wore on, I found it hard to fit Henry + two KC options in a cash lineup without sacrificing at two other positions. Eventually, I landed on Jalen Hurts who provided similar 30+ point production at a lower salary. QB-wise Hurts did his job for my cash lineup.
- Unfortunately, as I moved off Mahomes by Saturday, I also moved off of Hill. I wrote down in my notes that my biggest fear moving away from these two KC players was leaving me unexposed to the two teams (BUF & KC) with the highest team implied totals on the slate. Hill’s 50 points ended up being a true slate-breaker (like Derrick Henry in Week 2) and widened the cash line from previous weeks.
- Knowing that I could not afford Kelce, I punted off TE and chose Will Dissly over Evan Engram as an absolute punt play. I’d still do it again knowing how low of a salary he was and what it afforded me to do at different positions.
- By Saturday, David Montgomery & Darrell Henderson Jr. revealed themselves as mid-priced RBs that would fit in my build alongside Derrick Henry. I chose Montgomery due to the workload and concerns over Henderson’s workload returning from a ribs injury. Despite almost 5xing on his salary, Montgomery sadly went down to a knee injury late in the game.
- I’ve consistently punted DST as well and received solid results in my cash game lineups this year. I was between the Falcons, Lions, and Jets all at $2,300 or cheaper. I ended up siding with the Jets to save money and because their sack rate & Ryan Tannehill’s sack rate were showing up as a plus matchup despite them being the J-E-T-S. But hey they won!
- This is where I made my biggest mistake. On our Tuesday preview podcast, I brought up Corey Davis as one of my favorite cash game WRs on the slate. I loved his price ($5,000) and correlation opposite Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, as the week wore on, I got more and more worried about Zach Wilson and started to entertain other WRs in this $5-6K range that could be usable. Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton, and DeVonta Smith were all in my cash game pool but I settled on Odell Beckham Jr. The matchup against Minnesota looked juicy and he was seeing a ton of targets the week before. When Odell & Baker Mayfield missed on a 60-yard TD towards the end of the game, I knew my cash lineup was in trouble.
- The last position I actually filled was Davante Adams believe it or not. I loved his projection and I toyed with playing Travis Kelce in this spot as well… conveniently ignoring my Tyreek Hill love from earlier in the week.
- In summation, with elevated scores from Hill and a couple of other outliers this week (Cordarelle Patterson anyone?), I missed the cash line by less than seven points. My biggest takeaway was not overthinking things on Saturday and Sunday to try to get too cute. Stick with convictions and be willing to second guess who you might be missing out on.
|Week||DK Pts||Weekly Cash ROI||H2H Win %|
Despite scoring a mere 0.08 points fewer than Week 1, the cash line looked drastically different. But overall I can move forward knowing it wasn’t a total loss like Week 2. Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!