Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Sometimes DFS is a cruel, cruel task. Other days, you feel like you can’t miss and the wins come rolling in.

And other times, you skate by the thinnest of margins…

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 4 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 4 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• In case it wasn’t abundantly clear, I could not fathom building a cash lineup without Nico Collins this week. He was my slate breaker on Friday’s podcast and with Tank Dell ruled out by Friday, the target share would only balloon from there. He was locked-in as our WR1 in our Best Plays and I highlighted the insane advantage he would have against Jacksonville’s heavy-man coverage. Nico was the start of every lineup this week. In fact, I lock buttoned him in tourneys too.
• Diontae Johnson was the other obvious play after seeing 38% of the targets the previous week. You knew the field would be on him but that should’ve only solidified his status for cash.
• I also had Jordan Mason back in my lineup despite a dud last week. I wrote in Best Plays “NFL teams that are double-digit home favorites over the last 5 years have averaged 29 points and won 84% of the time. I like those odds and when you add in the fact the 49ers have scored 27+ points in every HOME WIN of Purdy’s career, Mason looks strong at his price point even if Deebo Samuel comes back.” He was an afternoon hammer for my teams to hit the cash line.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

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• At QB, we shared only two options all week: Jayden Daniels ($6500) or Kyler Murray ($6800). I tried to build lineups with both throughout the week and kept coming back to Daniels’ slightly elevated rushing floor at a cheaper price. I highlighted his insane scramble rate through 3 games and how we are getting fantasy gold. He ultimately won out over Murray in our QB ranks as well.
• I mentioned this week: “Breece Hall and Mason were our top-2 guys and this week is shaping up to be a 3RB build in cash. There are a lot of options in the $5K range with Najee Harris grading out the best. Any time you click the button for Najee there is pain involved but he should see a ton of work against a Colts defense that has been run on more than any other team through three games since 2013!“
• The other $5K RBs I worked through were Chuba Hubbard ($5700) and Cam Akers ($5300). Hubbard was a favorite early in the week as my First Look cover boy knowing his opportunity share in the CAR backfield. I did have some concerns if the Panthers failed as rostering Chuba + Diontae in cash made me feel a bit queasy. I sided with Diontae > Chuba and the savings I received dropping down from Harris to Akers didn’t seem very helpful. The weighted opportunities I projected for Najee (18.4 rush attempts + 3.2 targets) was actually tame compared to some sites. It made him one of the highest value players period in terms of $ per opportunity.
• Hall, in hindsight, looks like the biggest bust in DFS this week. Despite being a home favorite, he generated just 4(!) rushing yards and caught only two of his five targets. He saw 69% of the snaps but Braelon Allen was just as involved on his 36% including some key spots around the goal-line.
• Najee Harris is a plodding veteran that had a path to failure. You can look at his outcome a couple of different ways: he was fortunate to get a reception at the end and boost him into double-digits, he was unlucky with two Justin Fields rushing TDs, or he was a dud considering he had the backfield basically all to himself. Opportunity is a dragon we all chase in cash; sometimes it comes back to bite you.
• At TE, I played around with lineups that featured Dallas Goedert ($5100), Mike Gesicki ($3600), and the $3100 punt bros of Brenton Strange and Elijah Higgins. Betz and I differed slightly on those final two although I was slightly worried not having a Cardinal in my final lineup. Arizona had the highest team implied total on the slate but Higgins was likely going to be an afterthought in the game while Strange’s involvement the previous two weeks, Houston’s history against the TE position, and the likelihood that JAX would have to throw more moved me in that direction.
• With Nico and Diontae locked in, the 3rd WR spot was debatable for most of the week. I selfishly wanted Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7500) or Rashee Rice ($7300) to give my lineup a three-headed monster. In the middle range, Brandon Aiyuk ($6400) and Christian Kirk ($5200) were my two favorites that fit into my build. I played a ton of Kirk in tournaments as his 1st read target share against 2-high looks made him an easy pairing in Nico Collins GPP lineups. I sided with that emotional hedge over rostering another Jaguar in cash.
• The punting options of Darnell Mooney ($4400) or Tre Tucker ($3600) were a coin flip, to be honest. It worked out where Tucker came through and we updated our Best Plays article to reflect this: “Tre Tucker now is our favorite viable punt play at WR if you need to drop from Mooney to Tucker and save $800. Las Vegas ranks #1 in pass rate and with Adams and Michael Mayer out, he should see 4-5 targets.”
• At DST, the Texans ($3000) were my top option but for a while, I also had about $900 leftover when I dropped down from Mooney to Tucker. I hate hate hate paying up at DST. It seems like such a waste of salary so teams like SF ($3800) and NYJ ($3700) felt excessive even though they projected quite well in plus matchups.
• Here were the two lineups I decided between on Sunday. The weighted opportunities won out in this instance.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• We need to talk about how fortunate this lineup was to hit the cash line. Breece’s failure matched up with Rice being injured but the bigger story is Kyler lineups failing to provide an afternoon boost. Any sort of rushing TD or Higgins production likely would’ve knocked me out. Every week presents a give-and-take for DFS so for everyone ahead of the cash line, realize how many people received a ZERO from Rice that likely would’ve changed your outcome.
• Not dropping down from Mooney to Tucker almost cost me as the punt play ended up getting in the end zone and coming through this week.

2024 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

Chalk this week up to being incredibly lucky hitting the line, holding the line, and being the actual cash line.