Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

What a bonkers week!

The WR scoring returned with vengeance and Alvin Kamara quickly separated himself as the essential piece for DFS tournaments.

Oh, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is who we thought he was!

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 2 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

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The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 2 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• The end result of Cooper Kupp‘s injury might sting but 87% of the field played him! In other words, there was little to gain fading him although I made a concious effort to NOT play him in tournaments and benefitted greatly.
• We mentioned on the podcast that Jordan Mason was the free square this week. He narrowly outpaced Kupp in roster percentage and he came through 4xing on his salary. Don’t overthink these things in cash. We want our opponents to make mistakes.
• I also had Breece Hall locked in early in the week. His salary ($7400) was too cheap given his role and his floor of 4+ receptions per game. He was popping in our projections as one of the best points per dollar values on the slate.
• At TE, I never really considered anyone else other than Colby Parkinson. We brought up the conversation of playing “Too Many Rams” on Friday’s podcast but his punt play status and his popularity made him mostly an afterthought on this slate. I wasn’t too worried about any of the elite TEs getting steamed up in roster percentage making a punt play the preferred strategy by over half the field.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

• I went into this week wanting to play three RBs in cash. With Hall and Mason locked in, there were a number of names in the $6K range that I truly did love. I brought up Kyren Williams ($6800) on the podcast as my slate breaker and as I’ll mention, I ended up playing him in tournaments to balance things out. The other RBs on this slate I considered were Isiah Pacheco ($6900) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6600). As you’ll see below, it came down to “weighted opportunities”.
• At QB, I only really considered Patrick Mahomes ($7000) or Jayden Daniels ($6200). The “I never get to play Mahomes” bug bit me and the game environment at home in Arrowhead won out over the rookie mobile QB. I also was a bit worried about the Giants defensive line creating pressure and limiting him as a runner. Those two seemed like the prime choices but I don’t blame anyone who paid down for Daniel Jones ($5300) or went Baker Mayfield ($5900).
• It’s funny how a week can dramatically change our outlook because salary and game environment are everything. Anthony Richardson went from must-play in Week 1 to completely off my radar in Week 2.
• The hardest decision for me this week was sorting through WRs alongside Cooper Kupp. I legitimately juggled 5-6 guys in my lineup over the course of Friday and Saturday.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8100) was due for a bounce-back and after destroying the Bucs in last year’s playoffs, I made him a target despite the price tag. In the $6K range, there were a number of guys I felt were underpriced for their roles: Deebo Samuel ($6800), Chris Godwin ($6000), and Malik Nabers ($5900). I kept coming up with combinations where I would pay down with Nabers in order to fit in another RB in the FLEX but the projections were coming up short. I was sitting with money I didn’t know where to best allocate. Would I use it for DST? Eh, could I use the extra to get a better TE? Meh. Do I drop down from Mahomes to Daniels and use $1,500 to upgrade at one WR spot?
• I tried to figure out a solution where I could hit in Samuel, Godwin, AND Nabers but it ended up sacrificing a RB spot that was already locked in.  The FLEX spot can be a tricky part of the DFS Process each week. In general, I prefer WRs with the full PPR bonus but only when comparing using “weighted opportunities”. We know that targets (on average) are 2.5x more valuable than a rush attempt in full PPR leagues. Deebo’s 8 carries in Week 1 weighed heavily when I started going down the road of comparing. Thus, I had Deebo down for 24.4 “weighted opportunity points” while Gibbs was slightly under that at 23.9. It may seem minuscule but Gibbs sharing the backfield duties also carried some weight in my mind.
• Tip: You can break down opportunities for your skill position players by adding up your rush attempt projections + target projections while making sure your targets are multiplied by 2-2.5x. This will give you a weighted opportunity number to work from and compare using salary. For example, Jordan Mason‘s 24.7 weighted opportunities (my personal projections of 18.4 rush attempts + 2.5 targets) divided by his $5,200 salary gave him a $ Opp of 4.7, the best of any player on this slate. Anything over 2.5 is cash viable but if you are above 3.5, whew! That player is most likely in my final pool. I don’t use weighted opportunities as a primary way of comparing but rather as the third layer of cash lineup construction behind basic points per dollar and game environments.
• I also noticed that I wanted/needed at least one piece from the TB/DET game as it carried the highest total of the week. If that game went off, I would be buried in a deluge. It came down to Gibbs lineups versus Godwin lineups. With about 10 minutes until lock, I finally leaned into Godwin, his 8+ projected targets, and what I thought would be Tampa Bay coming from behind.
• In other to make this lineup work, paying down at a 3rd WR spot seemed essential. The cheap options were Rams Demarcus Robinson ($4000) and Tyler Johnson ($3300) or the Bengals Andrei Iosivas ($3800), who was in my lineup in Week 1. Notice I didn’t mention Allen Lazard ($3300). We got a lot of flack throughout the week on the main show and DFS for repeatedly not mentioning Lazard as an option after two TDs in Week 1. It was an unrepeatable stat line with Mike Williams likely seeing more snaps in a game environment that didn’t scream shootout. Iosivas played 100% of snaps the previous week and with so much attention devoted to Ja’Marr Chase, we assumed he would see 1-on-1 opportunities.
• I cannot reiterate how unimportant DST is to my process. It might cost me a week or so by making the wrong decision but I’ve found over the years that it needs to be the last part of your process unless there is an overwhelming cash lock that week. The Chargers were my preferred target at $3,400, but to be honest, I hated giving up that much salary. I found that LAC was leaving me short in my FLEX spot and sacrificing a couple of points of projection in other spots. At DST, if there is a mere 1-1.5 point difference and I “tier down” at that position to “Tier up” at a FLEX position, I’ll always side with the player. While Bryce Young predictably laid a hot fart, the other DST options of Kansas City ($3200), Jacksonville ($3100), Seattle ($3000), and Denver ($2800) all would’ve sufficed. I chose Seattle as New England’s offensive line is a train wreck and I believe in HC Mike Macdonald as a defensive schemer. He obviously forgot to tell his guys to guard Hunter Henry but zero regrets paying down here.
• Here are the final two lineups I was working between. The projections made it quite clear where to go and while the 1st one ended up six points higher in DK points, I don’t have regrets. I played a ton of Nabers in tournaments.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• I guess not playing Nabers ultimately cost me a few H2H wins. Like I mentioned, I played him everywhere in tournaments so we good.
• This slate felt straightforward and my pool of players was condensed to guys that made sense based on what the field did.

2023 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

After having a rough Week 1, I got back on track with a strong lineup and overall successful week in GPPs as well.

I messaged this on Friday and I’m glad that it held true.

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