Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

Each cash slate comes down to what you did with 3-4 players each week. I’ve started to rethink some of the strategy of Double Up contests as so many people converse throughout the week where we now find ourselves in a niche format of what everyone is doing.

Perhaps it is my contrarian nature at play but with so many people duping others, the game now has become thinking about what the field is doing rather than just who is the best plays. I’ve started to guess on Saturdays & Sundays what the roster percentages in cash might be. Sometimes I am shocked how popular certain players are (see Justin Herbert this week) and how so much of the field condenses around what others in the industry are doing.

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 13 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 3,500 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 13 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• I was locked into the 3RB build early in the week. I couldn’t fathom a cash lineup without Alvin Kamara. Everyone and their mama was going to play him so in cash, running the risk of NOT having him is just plain irresponsible. Kamara’s opportunities per game (23.3) are elite and I figured he was due for a TD not scoring since Week 6. (Spoiler: he still did not score)
• It started with Kamara this week and from there, the cheaper guys like Chase Brown and Bucky Irving will likely be paired with him. I had Brown slightly above Bucky in my ranks due to the PIT/CIN game environment. With 3RB builds being the preferred strategy for what feels like the 6th week in a row, the question is how much do you spend up for that 3rd guy?

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

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• I wrote in Best Plays that “Herbert and ARich are our preferred cash options. It’s basically a coin flip between the two.” I did not foresee the field locking in Herbert at the rate they did. I leaned into Herbert with the subtle wave at Richardson as an excellent tournament play. I was proud of the bold call I made at the end of the article:

• Please keep in mind that in Double-Ups, Justin Herbert did not make-or-break your lineup. He likely was zeroed out in your H2Hs with everyone seemingly expecting a ton of volume. Instead, the Falcons controlled the clock for most of the game and yet somehow Falcon-ed the game away. Classic.

The Chargers beat the Falcons yesterday with 3.4% Post-Game Win Expectancy. That's the biggest "surprise PGWE win" of the year. Falcons outgained the Chargers 350 to 187 yards and only committed two penalties, but Cousins threw four picks.

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) December 2, 2024

• One of the things I overlooked on this slate (or perhaps better said assumed) is the 2TE builds that would pop up. I was sold on 3RBs deciding between Bucky Irving or Bijan Robinson for that 3rd slot. Bijan’s role felt so secure (and correlated with Chargers) but Bucky’s price point and explosiveness against the league’s worst rush defense loomed larger when I started to weigh how saving $1,500 would allow me to balance out my lineup in other places.
• At WR, I knew I wanted a stud in my lineup and the only two that I truly wanted were Nico Collins or Puka Nacua. I knew I wouldn’t have enough salary to get up to both. Puka’s game environment and role (#1 in the NFL in TPRR) looked strong and correlating him with Kamara also felt like an obvious move. Puka was my WR1 in Best Plays. I love Nico Ballins and talk about him almost every single podcast. This was a chance to also emotionally hedge with Nico being my WR1 for my main home league team. Sometimes DFS isn’t that complicated… it’s just selfish.
• Beyond Puka, the $6K range had some strong plays with Tee Higgins and Ladd McConkey standing out the most at their price points. I have a long history with Higgins but sided with McConkey to pair with Herbert and the matchup in the slot against the Falcons. Chase Brown‘s presence gave me enough exposure in that game.
• I need to confess that there was part of my cash game this week that was… misguided? Call it a personal vendetta or points chasing but I thought there is a little too much love this week for Panthers WR David Moore. I wrote: “Yes, he caught a TD last week. Yes, he’s only $3,500. But raise your hand if you knew he was even in the NFL before this week?! It’s not an offense I like chasing so while you can punt in cash with him, he won’t be in my player pool in tournaments.” The GPP call was spot on (with Betz throwing darts at Adam Thielen) but avoiding him in cash was not a very wise strategy. I played Adonai Mitchell who is the more talented player but the field clearly wanted to play Moore as THE MOST POPULAR WR ON THE SLATE. I originally thought he’d be more like 35-40% but with this type of roster percentage, fading him in cash was not wise.
• The TE position honestly had 4-5 names you could’ve convinced me off. T.J. Hockenson, in my mind, had the best PPR outlook at TE this week on the slate besides Trey McBride, in the same game. I figured no one would pay up to get to McBride and instead shuffle between the $4K range of Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, or Hockenson. Taysom Hill was certainly on my radar but I was shocked so many people played him AND Kamara in the same cash lineups.
• At DST, I waited until the very end to decided between IND and NYJ. The salary structure eventually led me to the Jets at home. I received a nice ceiling outcome for paying down. It was a mix of the decision tree and stupid luck.

What Did the Field Do

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players used the most in cash style contests. You can compare the roster percentage, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they X’ed this week.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

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• Not playing David Moore was pure arrogance. It almost cost me at the end as he had a chance in OT to make me pay.
• TE was such a toss up that perhaps pivoting to a more popular Taysom or Engram might’ve been more prudent. I locked onto Hock early in the week.

2024 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

I did NOT play any H2Hs this week. Why you ask? I never created the contests with all my weekend family get togethers for Thanksgiving. Whoops!

Overall, I have cashed in Double-Ups four weeks in a row and sit at 8-4 on the season.