Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)

Can I be transparent with you for a second?

Writing a weekly cash review article is a twisted blend of therapy, duty, and often, a bit intrusive. I play DFS just like you and the process/results that I share on our podcast is not some marketing technique nor a buttoned-up version of how I play. It’s me and my lineup. As I write that, I don’t want pity or admiration. I don’t play in big $ tournaments nor do I have some type of bankroll that allows me to bully people in the lobby.

I go back and forth sometimes with this profession: this is an honor and I’m fortunate to do this as my paid job but also what we do is somewhat trivial when you factor in this a group of human beings guessing what they think will happen with fake football. Betz and I mention this throughout the off-season and I’ll preach it again: what are your DFS goals?

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 12 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 6,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

Are you just as curious how Tommy “High-T” Tremble made it in this cash lineup?

The Thought Process

Every week I’ll move from where I started on Tuesday to where I landed on a Sunday. BUT this week comes with a bit of a caveat. In fact, this is a classic example of “don’t do what I did”.

I traveled this weekend to North Carolina to visit my wife’s family and from Friday to Sunday AM, I decided not to look at any DFS. I usually take Saturday off as part of my process but the Thanksgiving week and travel allowed me to further reinforce this belief. I did not adjust my cash lineup, I entered no new tournaments, and I did not (this is IMPORTANT) look at any projections, period. I knew that going into Sunday morning and while I vastly lowered my overall volume this weekend (I played 3 total GPP lineups), there was a renegade attitude that crept in.

Heck, I had hit the cash line seven weeks in a row in Double-Ups and had a profitable Thanksgiving Slate. “I know how to do this… just plug in a few confidence plays and move on”. Whoops.

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 12 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players that were on my mind BUT I did not feel like I had many convictions, to be honest on this slate. After giving a ton of my attention to the Thanksgiving slate and the Megalodon episode for the Main Podcast, I kinda checked out after we recorded Friday’s podcast early in the week.
• Derrick Henry was my cash lock in the best plays and while his two TDs paid off his pricetag handsomely, the other RBs in the late window of this slate went off (Kyren Williams and a very TD luck Isiah Pacheco) thus neutralizing what the Yeti did earlier.
• I wrote in the Best Plays: “This is a “two roads diverged in a yellow wood” situation. Robert Frost would be proud of that reference as you can either pay down (Minshew or Baker) or pay up (Allen or Hurts) this week.” Josh Allen was my guy early on and while the savings from Baker Mayfield made some sense, I knew a ceiling outcome from Allen in a must-win game against a Philly team seeing the highest opponent pass rate (70%) of all-time was too good to pass up.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

• Let me set the scene for you. It is Sunday 10 AM and a man driving a Honda Odyssey back from North Carolina with Home Alone 2 (a family favorite) playing in the background is realizing “Oh, crap. I need to set my lineup”.
• The RB pool this week consisted of Jonathan Taylor ($6900), Kyren Williams ($6600), Isiah Pacheco ($6200), Rachaad White ($6100), and Jerome Ford ($5600). With Henry already in tow, you honestly could’ve argued for any of these guys. Kyren blew up and if you had the courage to play him in cash on his first week back, kudos. I did not. Taylor was shaping up to be a favorite based on the game environment with Colts home games averaging 57 points per game this year and his snaps and opportunities trending up for the last few weeks. He was the RB1 in both of our cash ranks. White popping up on the injury report moved me off him and as I mentioned on the Dynasty Podcast this past week, I don’t really believe in his talent. I guess I was looking for an excuse to confirm my priors. Not a good kids.
• A.J. Brown ($9000) and Stefon Diggs ($8800) were expensive but the game environment was too good to ignore. Having Josh Allen in my lineup also was a nagging feeling that I wanted one of these two guys there in case this game went off. (Hint: it did go off.)
• Punting felt inevitable this week whether that was Greg Dortch ($3300) or Justin Watson ($3000). When we received news that Kadarius Toney was out and Mecole Hardman was placed on IR, Watson seemed like an innocent punt play at the stone min. Also, if you know me, I’ve had an affinity for Watson for years since I took him in a dynasty startup draft the pick ahead of Jason Moore. Hence the reason why he is called “Superstar” in passing on the main podcast whenever his name comes up.
• In the middle tier, I loved Michael Pittman Jr. He was my WR1 in my Best Plays rankings but keep in mind that chart was one I hadn’t looked at in three days. To be honest, I forgot. Because I was flying blind without projections, my WRs were based on vibes alone. Tank Dell ($6900), Christian Kirk ($5700), and Josh Downs ($4800) were the cash-viable WRs I liked earlier in the week. It’s a mystery (soon to be revealed) how only Dell finished in my final lineup but all of these guys were the top plays. If I was in a rational place in front of my computer, I guarantee my cash lineup would’ve had 2-3 of these options.
• I really only had two DSTs on my radar this week: KC ($3100) and HOU ($2600). Both ended up being irrelevant this week so punting it off with the Texans was actually beneficial in this instance. I saved money. That was my thinking in the van.
• At TE, I loved Evan Engram ($4200) this week based on the simple fact he had a league-leading 71 targets without a TD. He not only was due but the matchup against a zone-heavy HOU defense made me want to buy into the blow-up spot. However, Trey McBride ($4700) and his role in the Arizona offense felt stronger. In other words, there was less competition for targets to deal with especially with Michael Wilson declared out for a second week in a row. With T McB locked in, I still had to figure out the FLEX position. How did I get to Tommy Tremble you ask? Stay with me…
• Every week I provide a look at my detailed spreadsheet highlighting the projections, weighted opportunities, and salary constraints of each team I am building. I always have a final 2v2 swap comparing these two and try to give logical reasonings why I landed on the lineup I did. This is not that week. Sorry people. I went off pure vibes driving that Odyssey.
• This was my conversation with Betz when we stopped off at the Nike outlet. (Sadly, didn’t find anything of note.)

• An hour later and with enough time to mull over 15 different combinations, something changed…
• Narrator: “It was then that Kyle sealed his fate on that drive home from the holidays“. When I made the decision to lock both of those WRs together, I was left over with enough salary to punt a second spot in my lineup. If you know me, that is a BIG NO-NO. Don’t do it, kids. The projections would’ve laughed at me but driving on I-85 was my main focus at the time folks. I saw Hayden Hurst was ruled out so Tremble had played a season-high 76% of snaps the week before. Sure, why not? Punt and maybe get a few points. “He correlates with Henry“, he said to himself with his family fast asleep in the car.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• Bahahaha… Tommy Tremble. Beyond seeing his name there (an alum from GAC in Norcross, GA), I went against one of my golden rules of “don’t play two punts in the same lineup”. It was unwarranted, sloppy, and renegade. Whoops.
• The lack of restraint of going all-in with Diggs knowing I could soak up a ton of that production with Allen was a moment of unbridled ambition, as the kids say. Ok, no one says that but it was the phrase that best encapsulated what I tried to accomplish.

2023 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

It was a tough runout as the Allen stack pushed past the cash line in Double-Ups on his final TD to Gabe Davis before Jake Elliott somehow nailed a 59-yard FG to send the game to overtime. The Bills kicked a FG on their first drive and I was 5 points up on the line. Jalen Hurts decided he didn’t want me to get away with my renegade playing style this week and promptly bodybagged me on the final play of the game to rip a profitable cash week from me. Honestly, I deserved it and after cashing for 7 weeks straight, I was due for a bad runout.