Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 1 DraftKings Cash Lineup
*Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $5 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 22,988 entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
Unfiltered Gut Reaction
- Whew! I survived despite my boy Raheem Mostert going down early.
- Jalen Hurts & DeVonta Smith teamed up (just like they did at Alabama) and stuck it to my Falcons.
- Kyle Pitts was sitting at 1.1 points at halftime. Luckily, everyone else and their mama was feeling that pain early.
- The Falcons looked horrible. Glad I only played one of our guys in my lineup.
- Ok… Texans I see you!
- Looks like Kamara is going to put up 30 in this one. Wait… where are the Packers?!? Oh wow, Kamara is gonna be done. They are pummeling them.
The Thought Process
Instead of working through every individual player, I want to highlight my thought process and why I made these selections.
- The main lineup build for this week consisted of high-end RBs (Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara) paired with cheap-o WRs (Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, Marquez Callaway) and Kyle Pitts. Seriously, there were a ton of rosters that had at least two of these three RBs, all three of those WRs, and Pitts. We usually ignore roster percentages in cash lineups and just “play the best plays” but in Week 1, there is an insane level of consensus that emerged. Marquez Callaway was my “player I’m fading” this week in the DFS Best Plays article and he was rostered at 32.5%, which was scary close to the 32.7 percent we projected in the Roster Percentage Report. Of the rookie Moores, I chose Rondale because he was coming in lower than his non-related Elijah. Also not related, Jason Moore.
- I wanted to move off of some of the chalk because despite wanting to find the best projectable outcome for your team, if you are rostering almost 7-or-8 of the most popular plays that week, you are essentially “moving with the herd”. There is little room for leverage in your cash lineup. Leverage is usually a GPP concept but it applies just as equally in cash lineups because IF the chalk doesn’t hit, you are stuck with a humongous group of people all in the 100-115 point range with no hope of hitting the cash line. I wrote up an article entitled DFS Strategy: Roster Construction & How to Use Roster Percentages if you want more strategy on this concept.
- My 129.66 points were actually kinda low when you consider I had an RB go down and none of my high-priced guys truly went off. Cook and Kamara hit their median range but if you rostered them you likely were disappointed that 25+ points weren’t on the table. Cook especially considering the game script against Cincinnati and the fact that game went to overtime. In hindsight, I probably should’ve believed that Christian McCaffrey is still… well… he’s Christian McCaffrey and that was likely the cheapest we’re going to see him all season.
- Raw points matter in cash lineups and when you roster multiple “punt plays” at different positions, you must have otherworldly scores at RB and WR. The cheap rookie WRs were thinner plays so having more than one in your lineup was asking a lot. I love punting either TE or one WR slot each week but there is a better way to accomplish this. For more, read up on How To Execute the Punt Play in DFS.
- Pitt’s 7.1 points look horrendous and his roster percentage went overboard at 42.3 percent! But a cheap chalky TE in cash isn’t the worst play because you only have to roster one of them! In terms of roster construction, it was a “small miss” in the grand scheme. Unless someone paid up for Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson in your H2Hs, you likely were fine.
- The Texans, as scary a selection they were for me, was also a pivot off of the chalky Falcons defense that many punted with. In that massive double-up contest, the Falcons DST (yes a $2,000 defense that was the worst against fantasy QBs & WRs last year) were 22.1 percent rostered!
|Week||DK Pts||Weekly Cash ROI||H2H Win %|
All in all, solid start to the cash game life and something to build on for Week 2 where roster percentages will likely be flatter as salaries adjust. Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!