Borg’s Cash Lineup Review for Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 15 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,000+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
The Thought Process
Throughout the week, Betz and I shared how this wasn’t our favorite week for cash. With two games taken off the slate and moved to TuesdayNightFootball.com, an already gross slate got even grosser.
- I only really considered three QBs this week: Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa. Kyler ended up being cost-prohibitive although I was pained to not have him. Dak’s price was tantalizing and I sweated leaving him out until lock. But with Tua, the median projection mixed with his salary and being able to stack him with affordable pass-catchers won out. As you can see, I placed a lot of my chips with the Dolphins this week.
- James Robinson was the lock of all locks this week and the entire field agreed with it hitting 83 percent! The matchup against a Texans defense allowing the most rushing yards along with a chance to dunk on Urban Meyer was chalk. Other than Robinson, the other main RBs I mulled this week were Najee Harris and D’Onta Foreman.
- I sided with Diontae Johnson over Harris to get some Pittsburgh exposure at $300 cheaper. I thought Johnson would be a smash play against a porous Tennessee defense. After moving off of Dak Prescott, I also moved off of Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was another name I considered due to his matchup and as a correlative play with Robinson. I usually just settle those in my mind by playing those near-miss cash players in GPPs.
- From Day 1, I knew DeVante Parker would be in this lineup. He was the cover guy for our First Look pricing article, our Friday podcast, profiled in our WR/CB article, and in our Saturday Best Plays article, I put it bluntly: “Imagine not playing DeVante Parker this week?! Couldn’t be me. The salary, the opportunity, and the Jets. That is a combination you won’t be able to replicate especially with only eight games now on the slate. Don’t get cute. Play him.“
- But what also emerged was the price/opportunity combination for teammate Mike Gesicki. At first, I wanted to pick only one of those two Dolphins for fear of being too exposed. But at $5,000, I couldn’t really move anywhere else other than paying up for George Kittle or Mark Andrews. I had Andrews in my lineup Saturday but by Sunday morning, I went all-in on the MIA stack. It was probably more risk than I usually take on in cash but the Jets were too much of a punching bag to pass up.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. ended up being one of the key differentiating features of a mostly chalky lineup. I was shocked he came in under 20 percent given his salary and role with Elijah Mitchell out. While the field chose to go with Michael Carter and Myles Gaskin in that price range, I never considered either especially with my heavy MIA build. Jeff ended up going over the 100-yard bonus and visiting the end-zone as the RB2 on the slate behind… Duke Johnson?!
- Jamming Davante Adams in my lineup felt like a must once Cooper Kupp moved off the slate to Tuesday. Honestly, his price was a bit expensive compared to the field. Stefon Diggs was showing up just as good in our projections and he was a full $1,200 cheaper. However, I was stuck on Diggs’ matchup against CB Stephon Gilmore and for Davante, the Baltimore secondary was in shambles already. When CB Jimmy Smith was placed on the COVID list, I went all-in on Davante as the clear WR1 on this slate.
- At DST, I only shuffled between the Bills & Jaguars. While other teams might’ve had better matchups, those two fit the budget I was working with. At the end of the day, I needed to save the extra $300 so I went with the Robinson + JAX DST stack. Honestly, I was looking for 3-4 points hoping the Bills chalk didn’t hit too hard.
- The final spot came down to Gabriel Davis or Christian Kirk. Both were in my WR pool throughout the week but Kirk became the final addition to this squad after I passed on Kyler. I thought I needed at least one player from the team with the highest team implied total on the slate. Of course, Arizona fell flat and somehow was pummeled by the Lions.
- Overall, things started out rough with the Miami double stack as Duke Johnson vultured a few TDs. While Tua turned out fine with a near 16 points, the true saving grace was the rest of the field failing more specifically Dak & Kyler.
- I dodged a few bullets with Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown (someone I faded everywhere), and Mark Andrews being lightly rostered.
It was nice to get back on the board with a W. While the plays overall were fairly condensed, I was pleased with the results after combing through some of the thinner plays (Gaskin & Carter) to safely clear the cash line.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %|
Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!