Best Ball Strategy: 2024 Early Targets On Underdog Fantasy For Closing Line Value (Fantasy Football)
Average Draft Position (ADP) is essentially a fantasy football market. It tells fantasy football drafters where players are valued and gives us a frame work from which to draft best ball teams. Every year, there are a number of different players who are over-valued (i.e. going higher than they should be) in the market while there’s always guys who go later than they should (i.e. they’re under-valued). Trying to identify those type of players is a difficult process but one that can be extremely profitable for fantasy players who are drafting best ball teams all summer long.
Trying to find players who are likely to go higher in drafts come July and August can be a profitable strategy in best ball formats – it’s part of the reason many analysts, including Kyle and I, advocate for drafting at different times of the off-season. Players who are a perceived value in May, might not be the same value come July or August. For tournament style best ball players (Underdog’s Best Ball Mania V or DraftKings Milly Maker, for example), getting players at a better ADP than our opponents has a meaningful impact on advance rate. This concept is one that I refer to as ‘closing line value.’
For those betting lines and totals in the NFL, this term is one that is often associated with getting the best number, and while it doesn’t guarantee you’ll win the bet, it does improve your chances of being a more profitable long-term bettor. Here’s an example – If you bet Bengals -3.5 on Monday and the line closes Bengals -7 on Sunday at kickoff, you got the best possible number, and you “beat” the market. Being able to do this on a consistent basis demonstrates good process. Below are eight players who are likely to go higher in July and August than they are right now. You’ll notice most are rookie WRs. For more context on that, be sure to tune into this episode of the DFS & Betting Podcast.
Editor’s Note – If you’re looking for more players who we have above ADP, be sure to check out our 2024 Best Ball Rankings, exclusively part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+.
1. WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Overall ADP: 66.4
Positional ADP: WR37
Projected ADP: Round 5
Worthy is rising up draft boards faster than he ran his 40 at the NFL Combine. After being selected in the first round by the Chiefs, it’s easy to understand why. Worthy’s draft capital plus early production at a Power 5 school, breakout age and athletic testing numbers signal we’re probably not getting another Skyy Moore situation here. Rashee Rice is very likely to get suspended for his off-season racing accident while Marquise Brown has really fallen off in recent years. Under Andy Reid, we know this offense wants to be pass-first, and their off-season moves only solidify that philosophy. Grab Worthy now before the Rice suspension is official as he’ll likely settle in as a top-five round player.
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