Best Ball: Borg & Betz’s Highest Exposure Players for 2022
The summer of best ball rolls on here with The Fantasy Footballers.
We’ve discussed a lot of these players on the DFS Podcast this summer, and we also gave our highest exposure from each NFL team in the Best Ball Primer, but we thought this article would help point out where we have our strongest convictions. Of course, if you’re looking for more best ball takes, you can find out Best Ball Rankings in the Ultimate Draft Kit+.
Quarterbacks
Borg’s Highest Exposures
- Trey Lance– Was there any doubt? He’s now priced as the QB8 which is getting close to uncomfortable for me. It’s shocking he’s going ahead of Russell Wilson but I’ve detailed numerous times his immense upside and how his rushing ability in a 4 pt scoring format is like cheating.
- Lamar Jackson– Betz and I are all about the Ravens this year. I usually shy away from taking a QB in the first four rounds but Lamar is someone I’m willing to pull the trigger on in the 5th round easily.
- Justin Fields– On a recent DFS mailbag, I discussed my Fields shares in Best Ball. The combination of rushing upside with draft cost makes him easily my highest rostered QB2.
Betz’s Highest Exposures
- Trey Lance – I’ll echo Kyle here – Was there ever any doubt? Lance has been a guy we’ve been pounding the table for all offseason. On the DFS Podcast, I’ve made comparison’s to Jalen Hurts‘ 2021 season and Lamar Jackson‘s 2019 season. We know the upside exists given his rushing upside, but we haven’t truly seen it yet, and that’s why his ADP was down around QB10-12 earlier this offseason. Now that his ADP has climbed, I’m only taking Lance when he falls past ADP or when I have a 49er on my squad.
- Justin Fields – Fields feels like a great QB2 for your squad based on his ADP and rushing upside. The only concern I have with Fields in tournaments is that there are really only two obvious stacking partners – Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney, so you’re likely not getting unique with any Fields teams.
- Tom Brady – Now that Brady is going behind Trey Lance, he’s a priority target for me in August…and this comes with him as my 3rd highest exposure QB. During his “Last Dance” season, there’s no doubt the Bucs will continue to let Brady chuck it, and the early training camp period has gone very well for TB12 with Chris Godwin avoiding PUP and the team adding Julio Jones.
- Dak Prescott – The Cowboys led the NFL in scoring last season, and Dak quietly set career bests in completion rate, TD passes, and TD rate. While the loss of Amari Cooper hurts, it feels like Dak has fallen too far in ADP. He also goes in the range of QBs that we know have an insanely high advance rate.
Running Backs
Borg’s Highest Exposures
- Dalvin Cook– I can’t stop, won’t stop drafting Dalvin in the first round. I’ve drafted him as early as 5th overall going off my Best Ball rankings. If I have a mid-to-late 1st round pick, I make sure to grab Cook, especially in massive tournaments to get different.. I buy into the hype surrounding the MIN offense with new HC Kevin O’Connell.
- Christian McCaffrey– I have to admit… I have been quite fortunate to have early picks in a ton of drafts. CMC is my #1 player so any pick between 1-4 and he’s my guy. Is there risk? You bet.
- Chase Edmonds– He’s become one of my favorite RB3s to draft. Edmonds profiles as the best fantasy option of the MIA backfield given his receiving abilities. The beat reporters recently have steamed him up as the clear starter and 60+ receptions aren’t out of the question. I detailed him and other RBs that could hit your FLEX spot in a recent article.
- Breece Hall– This is Jason’s doing but I’ve warmed up more and more to take the rookie RB at the 3/4 turn. Over the last decade, the Rookie RBs with ADPs in the top-5 rounds average 18.5 touches per game and 8.8 TDs on the season. 64% of them outperformed their ADP. I’m not worried about Michael Carter at all.
- Aaron Jones– Most of these shares were early in the process when Jones was a 3rd rounder. I still don’t mind the mid-2nd round draft price especially if you think he’ll see a major uptick in targets.
- Miles Sanders– He’s an arbitrage play on lineups where I don’t get Hurts. You’ve heard non-stop about the positive TD regression coming his way. The recent negative camp news about Kenneth Gainwell mixing in with the 1s is concerning. Regardless, I want to bet on Philadelphia RBs behind one of the league’s best offenses and a way to gain leverage against PHI passing stacks.
- Chris Evans– He’s one of my favorite late-round RB dart throws as I recently detailed.
Betz’s Highest Exposures
- Aaron Jones – If you’ve listened to any of the DFS Podcast episodes over the last two months, there’s a good chance this doesn’t surprise anyone. I was aggressively targeting Jones in Round 3 in May and early June but have continued to hammer Jones in Round 2 given his upside in this offense sans Davante Adams. His outlook (somehow) may have gotten even better with Christian Watson (knee), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), and Robert Tonyan (ACL surgery) all missing time early in camp.
Quinn Harris/Getty Images
- Melvin Gordon – This doesn’t mean I don’t also love Javonte Williams this year (he’s #7 in my RB exposures), but I love the value of Gordon relative to his teammate. In general, the Broncos are a team we want to back this year given the upgrade in QB and coaching scheme. Gordon will give us useable weeks while also having stand alone value should Javonte miss any time. He’s my preferred RB3.
- Khalil Herbert – Not going to lie…I was very surprised to see Khalil Herbert as #3 on my exposures. But the rationale here for me is that I like targeting backup RBs with a low ADP who we’ve seen have success and who are almost guaranteed to see a strong workload if the starter misses time. Herbert averaged 22 total opportunities and 97 total yards per game in four games without Monty last year. Herbert was actually better than Montgomery in PFF’s Elusive Rating and broken tackle rate.
- Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson is a guy I wrote about in my RBs to Take a Stance On article earlier this summer, and it looks like the market is on board. I’m cooling on my Rhamondre exposure in August now that I have a ton of him at a better ADP about a round and a half later.
- Alvin Kamara – Kamara’s ADP sunk like a ship when a report surfaced earlier this summer that he could miss “up to six games” due to suspension. I decided to buy the dip with the understanding that these court cases often get pushed back, and that’s exactly what happened. I’ll be watching AK’s ADP closely. If he hangs around in the 3rd Round, I’m still in, but now that I’ve taken a lot of him in Round 3, I’ll probably cool off if he climbs back up into Round 2.
Wide Receivers
Borg’s Highest Exposures
- Chris Olave– Where have you been all off-season? Olave is going to likely end up being a My Guy for me in 2022. The draft capital and opportunity is juicy and the ADP still hasn’t captured his overall upside.
- Michael Pittman Jr.– At the 2/3 turn, Pitty City is basically an auto-pick for me. Jason highlighted the bullish case on the recent Ice/Fire Live Show in Los Angeles. If you listened to the DFS Podcast last year, I pounded the table all off-season for him.
- Mike Williams– Big Mike Willy! Aside from Pittman, Big Mike Willy is the next WR up for me especially if I grabbed an elite RB in the first round. I’ll take the boom/bust in best ball as Matt DiSorbo showed: we should be embracing volatility in this format.
- Van Jefferson– This one stings as the most recent news of him seeing a specialist for his knee. It could be minor but I wanted to get a piece of the LAR offense in a cheap way.
- Tyreek Hill– This shocked me but I realized that at the 2/3 turn, if I didn’t get Pitty City or Big Mike, Hill was next in my queue. Give me the rollercoaster ride. I wouldn’t say I’m pro-Dolphins as Tua shows up lower in my QB exposures than you would think.
- Jaylen Waddle– I bought in on Waddle early as the gap between him and Tyreek was more than two rounds. It’s since closed but I still think he’s a solid pick.
- Parris Campbell– It looks like he’s beating out rookie Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin as the No. 2 in this offense. They may not sound like an over-the-top endorsement but it’s encouraging knowing his ADP has risen a full two rounds since June.
- D.J. Chark Jr.– Don’t take this as Amon-Ra slander but Chark is someone I’ve routinely taken as leverage over the Sun God. The camp reports are glowing and Jameson Williams is someone all but off my draft board currently. Chark can provide 3-4 spike games and beat his ADP.
Betz’s Highest Exposures
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – Okay, yes. This does feel uncomfortable to have ARSB be the WR I have the most exposure to. I’ve argued with Kyle all summer that he’s an undervalued WR based on the fact that middle-round 2nd year WRs frequently beat ADP. You simply don’t do what he did in the NFL unless you’re a talented player, and it’s not like we’re asking him to be a top-5 fantasy WR at his ADP. If he can finish in the WR15-20 range, he’ll be a massive win rate guy.
- Mike Williams – As Kyle mentioned above, I wrote an article with Matt DiSorbo looking at how volatility in best ball helps us win. You could argue there isn’t a more volatile WR than Big Mike, but in best ball, I want those spike weeks, and we know we’re going to get it from Williams as long as Justin Herbert is slinging the rock.
- Mike Evans – The Mikes! Evans is a guy I started taking a ton when Gronk decided to officially retire given the obvious TD upside. And while Godwin did avoid PUP to open camp, I’ve been adamant that it’s unlikely he’s 100% in Week 1 and that the best version of Godwin we’ll see will likely be in the second half of the season. It all points to more TDs for Mike Evans, who has a whopping 27 over his last two years (with Gronk and Godwin).
- Kadarius Toney – Most of my Toney shares are from late May and early June when his ADP was in the 100’s. He’s now climbed all the way up to 79th overall. While I still like Toney and the Giants’ offense under Brian Daboll, it’s probably time for me to look elsewhere given the rise in ADP.
- Jaylen Waddle – I expect Mike McDaniel to give Tua layup throws in this system that emphasizes run-after-the-catch specialists and speed. Enter Waddle and Tyreek Hill. I was taking Waddle a lot more early in the summer when he was a Round 4 guy.
Tight-Ends
Borg’s Highest Exposures
- Cole Kmet– In early August, I can now lay claim to the fact that Kmet is my highest exposure player. If I’m punting TE, he’s an easy choice to be my TE1. If I went with someone like Kittle, Kmet is a solid TE2 where I no longer need to pursue the position. He’s the likely 2nd target in his offense, and in our UDK projections, we have him over 100+ targets. Over the last decade, I compiled every third-year TE that saw 100+ targets… ALL of them finished inside the top-10 at the position making Kmet an easy value and prediction to be a good advance rate player in 2022.
- George Kittle– I love it. I died on this hill last year and I’ll go back to the well in 2022. As I wrote in the Best Ball TE Tiers article, he’s going about 25 picks later than last year which makes him a relative value IF you get the full season. Kittle is the last of these TEs who truly could finish as the TE1 on the year. He’s never going to be a big-volume guy with Trey Lance while battling with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk for targets. Among the top-5 guys, he’s my most rostered TE knowing the opportunity cost is the lowest.
- Gerald Everett– I wrote up a full article on him a couple of weeks ago entitled Gerald Everett & A History of TEs Coming Out of Nowhere for Fantasy. Go give that a read as I humbly claim that Everett is also in that group of most rostered TEs for me.
- Austin Hooper– The Titans have the most vacated targets (67%) in the NFL including the most inside the 10-yard line. The offense never is going to be a high-volume, air-it-out machine but we did see Hooper have relevance a couple of years ago with the Falcons (back-to-back TE6 seasons) simply by being available. It wasn’t flashy but in the UDK, we have him projected for 70+ targets.
Betz’s Highest Exposures
- David Njoku – With the recent news of Deshaun Watson’s suspension, this doesn’t feel awesome. But, he got a big old bag of money, was quietly really good on an efficiency basis a year ago, and Kevin Stefanski’s offenses typically feature the TE. Let’s hope when Watson is back that he and Njoku can hook up for some big games.
- Rob Gronkowski – Whoops! I was convinced in May and June that Gronk would come back and play one last year with his BFF, but now I’m stuck holding the bag. Maybe he’ll play the last eight games of the year and save my best ball season? A kid can dream…
- Cole Kmet – Kmet is an obvious positive regression candidate after catching a whopping zero TD last season. He’s sure to be a focal point of the passing offense with the Bears sporting arguably the worst WR room in the league. What’s nice about Kmet is that his ADP this summer has allowed him to be a guy you can take in 2TE builds or in 3TE builds. Sign me up.
- Hunter Henry – Henry is a guy who’s always tough to trust for yardage, but he hauled in 9 TD on the back of 17 red zone targets, the 7th most among TEs. The Patriots’ offense is one that we can usually trust, and I’m looking for TD equity in my TEs, especially when they go in this range of the draft. I expect the Pats to let Mac Jones throw a bit more in year two as well.