Week 5 Fantasy Football Trade Targets & Ammo
Trade Targets
Le’Veon Bell, RB Jets
Bell’s value is at an all-time low. He’s averaging 2.9 yards per carry (ypc) and only has one touchdown through three games. Two of his three games were against incredible defenses in the Bills & Patriots. Sam Darnold, the Jets starting QB, has been out with mono for his past two games. Despite the challenging situation, Bell looks good on film. Additionally, he’s coming off a bye, so he’ll be in your lineup every week that he’s active moving forward. This is a nice advantage that often gets overlooked. I think Darnold will take a step forward this season despite Adam Gase’s coaching, and Bell will be a beneficiary. Bell has had an uphill battle so far this season, and he’s still been productive. Buy him now, when he’s the lowest price he’ll be all season. Note: I just made an offer to sell Kamara in exchange for Bell and 2020 draft picks in my keeper league. Call me crazy, but I think Bell will be more consistent AND outproduce Kamara until Brees comes back.
Saquon Barkley, RB Giants
Saquon owners don’t know what to do. Their most valuable player is out and is expected back in a month or two. The fantasy season is only four months long. I’m guessing the majority of Barkley owners decided to hold onto him and avoid going full tilt. But now reality has set in since they had a void in their Week 4 lineups. Go look at the Barkley owner’s team. Do they have a losing record? If you have depth and have a solid record, it’s worth making an offer to the Barkley owner. He’s already out of the walking boot and claims that he’ll beat the 4-8 week timetable. Barkley is a physical freak, and I’m pretty sure his body heals faster than anyone else. Don’t be surprised if he’s back in a couple of weeks.
Devonta Freeman, RB Falcons
Freeman scored over 11 points (½ PPR) for the first time this season in Week 4. He did it against a stout Tennesee defense that held the Falcons to 10 points. He’s the RB-35 so far on the season, which is far worse than anyone would have projected. So why is he a buy? He’s dirt cheap, and owners are panicking. He was targeted a season-high 9 times and managed to turn 8 into receptions. The key here is that he was involved in the passing game, which hopefully continues. I recommend floating out offers for him to build RB depth on your team. I think better days are ahead, and running backs are hard to come by. I would test the waters and offer something like a back-end WR2 for Freeman. If the Freeman owner is panicking or if they have 2-3 better RBs on their team, they might bite. Freeman is especially a good buy for owners with losing records that need a consistent flex play with upside.
Tyreek Hill, WR Chiefs
Similar to Saquon owners, Tyreek owners are anxiously awaiting his return from injury. The latest news is that Tyreek could return as early as Week 6. If you have a winning record and decent depth, Hill is a good addition. He was the #1 overall WR last season, and he’s the most explosive player on the most dangerous offense in football.
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Dynasty Buy – Sam Darnold, QB Jets
Darnold has shown signs of improvement in his young career. He was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, and he’s flashed at times in the NFL. It often takes time for QBs to develop, so don’t jump to conclusions about Darnold’s future. I think he can be acquired on the cheap due to the strange mono illness, poor Week 1 performance against a strong Bill’s defense, and concerns about his crazy-eyed head coach. Buy and stash Darnold in dynasty leagues.
Trade Ammo
Wayne Gallman, RB Giants
Gallman scored 24.8 points in ½ PPR against the beatable Redskins. While I’m impressed by his production, I don’t think you’ll get Saquon numbers moving forward. Consider the Giants next two opponents: the Vikings and the Patriots, both having considerably better defenses than the Redskins. Gallman’s numbers were elevated by two touchdowns, so he would have finished with only 12.8 points without them. Comparatively, Barkley only scored 1 touchdown in his three starts this season. I think Gallman’s touchdown count will come back to earth in the future (even against juicy opponents). He should remain a flex / RB2 option while Barkley is out…but how long will Barkley stay out (see “buy” section)? I recommend trading Gallman and another player for a difference-maker. If you can’t buy Saquon, see if you can trade Gallman to his fantasy owner.
LeSean McCoy, RB Chiefs
McCoy has been very productive in his role on the Chiefs. Fantasy owners are happy with their late-round draft pick in McCoy, who’s stock rose dramatically upon being traded to Kansas City. McCoy should continue to be productive, but there is a lot of uncertainty with the Kansas City backfield, and I would personally get out while you’re on top. Damien Williams (knee) might return this week, and McCoy only averaged 2 targets per game in the games that Williams played. McCoy will still get rushing volume, but that’s less valuable in ½ PPR and PPR leagues. Darrel Williams has also been pretty productive (especially in the passing game), and it’s possible that this backfield becomes a three-headed beast when Damien Williams returns. I haven’t even mentioned Darwin Thompson, who’s been a ghost but might be given an opportunity at some point in the future. For me, there are too many question marks for McCoy and I think you could sell him at a good price right now. I don’t recommend forcing a trade, but maybe test the waters.
Kerryon Johnson, RB Lions
Johnson is a great football player on a team that doesn’t care about your fantasy team. He was given a huge workload in Week 4: 26 rushing attempts and three targets. He had a good week and would have exploded if he was able to get into the endzone. Fortunately, he was “the guy” in Week 4, handling 79% of the team’s rushing attempts. This is a great sign for Kerryon since the storyline has been that opportunity is his only weakness. But look at his schedule. He has a Week 5 bye and then plays the Packers and Vikings. He plays the Bears twice in November. His division has very good defenses, so his matchups are tough. Johnson deservedly peaked in value after a great, productive week. However, I’m trying to upgrade him into someone like Le’Veon Bell if I can.
Happy trading! Let me know who you think are good trade buys and sells entering Week 5! (Hit me up on Twitter @jeffgreenwould)