Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Targets & Ammo
We’re entering Week 4 of the NFL season, and life is good. We have three weeks of NFL data to help make fantasy football decisions. Week 4 is easier to predict than Week 1 for that reason. That being said, some owners are 1-2 or 0-3 and panicking. Other owners are disappointed with their early-round “studs” that haven’t panned out. Fantasy owners are starting to change their opinions about players, but it’s a delicate balance between pre-draft projections and in-season production through three weeks. As a savvy fantasy owner, you should try to make trade offers to improve your team. After all, you’re in it to win it right? It’s hard to finish in first place without taking any risks.
While there are many things to consider when making trade offers, you should typically target players who either provide a safe floor or have the potential to provide a high ceiling (currently or in the future). Keep in mind that it’s incredibly valuable to have players who are predictable when they are given an opportunity to produce. As an example, Antonio Brown is an incredibly risky player and is probably not worth rostering. That being said, when he is active and healthy you should start him. Conversely, Miles Sanders is risky because we don’t know what to expect when he is active and healthy. Now that may change as the season progresses.
Let’s get to it! Here are my favorite trade targets and trade ammunition entering Week 4.
Tyler Boyd, WR Bengals
Boyd is a 24-year-old receiver who finished last season as WR19 in 0.5-ppr. He signed a four-year $43 million dollar contract over the offseason while his superstar teammate AJ Green has not received an extension beyond the 2019 season. Boyd scored more points with AJ Green on the field (14.6 pts/g) than off the field (11.1 pts/g) last season. But enough about last season!
Boyd ranks fourth in receptions (24) and third in targets (33) among wide receivers through three weeks of the 2019 season. He averages 10.4 yards per receptions, so he is more valuable in PPR and ½-ppr. He is currently WR29 on the season and has zero touchdowns. Only one other top-37 receiver has yet to reach paydirt. While this looks like a negative, I think the touchdowns are coming. He scored seven last year and could easily surpass that. Keep in mind Andy Dalton is currently second in passing yards (979) and top-12 in TD passes (5) among all QBs. While owners worry about competition with John Ross and AJ Green, now is the time to scoop him up.
Mike Williams, WR Chargers
Williams was hyped this offseason just as much as Chris Godwin. While Godwin has clearly pulled away as the more valuable player so far this season, there is still reason to be optimistic about the rest of his season. Williams has been banged up with knee and back injuries. The Chargers lost Hunter Henry due to injury this offseason, who was his primary thread for red-zone targets. Williams is 6’4” and caught 10 touchdowns last season. He’s made some great catches so far this season but has been limited. I think the Melvin Gordon return makes owners worried about William’s value, so now is the time to strike. Williams was a first-round pick in the 2017 draft and could enter top-15 wide receiver status in the back half of the season if things fall his way. I own Mike Williams in every league I’m in, and I’ll be the first to tell you that I’m frustrated. Buy him now before he blows up in a juicy Week 4 matchup against the Dolphins.
Marquise Brown, WR Ravens
Marquise Brown entered the 2019 draft as one of the most highly touted draft prospects. His dynasty stock dropped due to his landing spot – the run-heavy Ravens who have a terrible passing offense. Well, we were wrong folks. Lamar Jackson looks like the real deal. The three-game sample size is admittedly small, but I’m a Jackson truther. Marquise Brown blew up in his first week and put up respectable numbers in Week 2 vs the Cardinals. Week 3 was disappointing for Brown, who only caught two of nine targets for 49 yards. I’m willing to take the risk and go after Brown in redraft and in dynasty. I think this is the cheapest he’ll be all season. Despite coming on slowly due to injury, he ranks top-20 in targets (27) and top-7 in yards per reception (20.1) among all WR. I almost never recommend going after rookie receivers, but I’ll gamble on Marquise Brown this year at his relatively low price tag. He has a wide range of outcomes, and one of those is taking you to a championship.
Chris Carson, RB Seahawks
Carson was underrated in 2018, recording the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL despite missing two games. He also had 28 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line last year (5th among qualified backs). Fast forward to 2019. He looked pretty good in Week 1 but lost a fumble. He proceeded to lose another fumble the next week. And another Week 3. I admit that it’s incredibly concerning because he could have been the reason Seattle lost Week 1 and Week 3. It’s also concerning that his competitor Rashaad Penny has been injured and inactive because Penny could very well steal the job due to Carson’s costly fumbles. But sometimes you have to listen to your gut, and I believe in Carson the player. Pete Carroll came out supporting Carson, who was the victim of some incredible defensive punches. While Carroll isn’t always the most truthful coach, it’s a positive sign nonetheless. I’ll take a shot on Carson at his all-time low price tag, especially considering the murky landscape of the fantasy RB.
Mecole Hardman, WR Chiefs
Hardman has six receptions this season and 31.5 fantasy points to show for it. Read that again. What’s more likely, that he continues to get 5.3 fantasy points every time he catches the ball? Or that he comes down to earth? I think Hardman is a good start this weekend against the Colts. However, it also looks like Tyreek Hill could be coming back as soon as next week. Once Hill announces his return, Hardman’s value plummets. While it’s possible that Hardman is the WR3 when Hill returns, it’s more likely that Demarcus Robinson takes that role since Hardman and Tyreek play similar roles in the offense. Many fantasy fanatics were all aboard the Hardman hype train back in the offseason when it looked like Hill would be suspended. If you can ride the storyline that Hardman is the real deal, you can probably get good value by combining him with another player in a 2-for-1 trade. He’s the cherry on top that can get you a top-tier player. He is still an intriguing rookie with play-making abilities, and he’s actually one of the better WR insurance pieces in the league.
Happy trading! Let me know if you were able to make some trades and/or if you have feedback (twitter: @jeffgreenwould).