Trade Targets & Ammo for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the (entering) Week 9 edition of Trade Targets and Ammo. Once again, don’t buy or sell just because you want to move a player or just because they’re on this list. However, if you can gain value on a trade, go for it. Now is the time of year that you should be starting to think about playoff matchups. While a lot can still change, we have enough data to have a good idea of what to expect in playoff matchups. Tip of the week: if you’re in a fantasy league where ridiculous trades are being accepted…don’t veto it unless it’s collusion. However, there should still be consequences. My two recommendations for your consideration are:
- Consider a league vote to kick out owners that consistently make terrible trades… Do this at your own risk to personal relationships.
- Consider joining the #footclan, which has a plethora of smart and knowledgeable fantasy owners who are ready to make moves. A league with trading is like chess while a league without it is like checkers.
Targets
Keenan Allen, WR Chargers
Keenan Allen was the guy to own the first three weeks of the season. Now, he’s posted five straight weeks below nine points. My gut tells me he’ll bounce back, and I bet Allen owners are panicking. Buy him as a WR2 since he has the upside to be a top-5 WR on any given week.
Golden Tate, WR Giants
Tate has been productive despite facing a four-game suspension and joining a new team this offseason. Still, he’s logged at least six receptions and 80 yards in each of the past three weeks. Tate has a nice playoff schedule, facing Philly, Miami, and Washington, who are all giving up a lot of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Tate is also a monster in terms of gaining yards after the catch, which illustrates his potential to break away for a touchdown. Tate should be started every week but you could probably buy him at flex value due to question marks about the Giants offense.
Nick Chubb, RB Browns
Chubb is an excellent running back on a team that should be playing better on offense. So he’s solid and also has upside. Furthermore, he has a great fantasy playoff schedule with matchups against the Cardinals and Bengals (Weeks 14 & 15), who is leading the league in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs. Additionally, owners are worried about Kareem Hunt’s return in Week 10. Although Hunt is talented, I think Chubb is the better player, and he’s demonstrated his ability to produce for the Browns this season. I bet Chubb still gets 20 or so touches a game even with Hunt back, which is plenty to continue his productive year.
Adam Thielen, WR Vikings
Thielen is currently nursing a hamstring injury but is hopeful to be back in Week 9. Meanwhile, fellow wideout Diggs has been balling out for the past three weeks. Thielen is the alpha WR in this offense, but owners may be scared because Diggs is on fire. I’d buy Thielen, who you might be able to acquire at WR2 value.
Ammo
Latavius Murray, RB Saints
LATAVIUS! Murray has two straight weeks above 30 fantasy points. Alvin Kamara only has one such week this season. Kamara is the far better player, and I expect him to be back after the Saints Week 9 bye. As we’re entering the handcuffing season, Murray has proven he can produce high-end RB1 numbers in Kamara is out. Also, Murray has the potential to play the complementary RB role now that he’s demonstrated his ability to produce. If I had Latavius, I’d be looking to sell him to the Kamara owner for RB2 value.
Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Zach Ertz, TE Eagles
A wise man once said that Ertz is on pace for only 60% of the fantasy points he scored in 2018. I’m that wise man, surprise. Ertz is TE9 on the season (8.4 fpts/gm), just ahead of Darren Fells (8.2 fpts/gm). Ertz is no longer a must-start, but he’s still viewed that way by some. In a year where at least a quarter of your league is desperate for a consistent and productive tight end, you may be able to sell Ertz for an RB or WR. So far this season, Ertz has not provided a positional advantage so far this season. Don’t sell him just to sell him, but float out some offers.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR 49ers
Sanders had a miraculous comeback after a brutal Achilles tear in 2018. He just joined the undefeated 49ers, who are better running the ball than passing the ball. George Kittle remains the top receiver on the offense. Also, even veteran receivers struggle to produce high fantasy numbers when they’re traded to a new team mid-season (although there are certainly exceptions like Amari Cooper last year). The odds are against Sanders this year. Furthermore, Sanders had a productive 1st week in San Francisco due to an early touchdown reception. I’d sell him for mid-tier WR2 value if you can.
Drew Brees, QB Saints
Brees had a dominant Week 8 versus a very beatable Cardinals defense. He has some easy matchups in three of his upcoming four matchups (Atlanta twice & Tampa Bay). However, the Saints also have some tough matchups in the playoffs (SF, IND, @TEN). Last season, Brees busted (<15 pts) 33% of the time and had a ridiculous home/road split of +11.09 as outlined in the Truth About QBs in 2018. I am a believer in selling middling QB1s since they provide little benefit over streaming options. Also, Brees carries a lot of risks but has been great in his two full games this season (both home). I could be wrong on this one, but I’ll be the first to say I’d be uncomfortable playing Brees in the playoffs. For that reason, I’d try to package him and upgrade at RB, WR, or TE.
Comments
Thanks for the article, Jeff. I’m being offer Kamara+Sutton for Carson+John Brown — I think Kamara and Carson are similar (Kamara slightly better, some injury risk), though I’m worried that Sutton may be much worse with new QB. I’m looking towards playoffs, I don’t mind that the trade gets me an extra WR bye (I have Julio, Lockett, and Adams) or that Kamara is on bye this week.
Appreciate your thoughts!