Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

Last week’s QB prediction article has now hit 7-of-12 QBs for five weeks in a row inching closer to our goal of 60 percent for the season. Here is the Week 6 fantasy finishes (with a * for those correctly predicted)

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 7.

Four-Sures

Russell Wilson @ ARZ
What is so crazy about Wilson’s historic start to the season is how much Seattle is throwing in the red zone. He has 13 red zone TDs, tied with Mahomes for the most in the league despite only attempting 28 passes there, 12th most. He’s efficient and he’s electric with his two wide receivers. Wilson is a 3.5-point road favorite in a game with a 56-point total.

Patrick Mahomes @ DEN
In five career games (including his first-ever start on New Year’s Eve of 2017) versus Denver, Mahomes has never scored more than 30 points against their division rival despite winning all five matchups. For most humans, that would be solid but for a video game character, it’s middle of the road for him. He’s established such a high floor that it’s hard to imagine him not getting multiple TDs including a long one to road warrior Tyreek Hill.

Kyler Murray vs SEA
Murray is slightly ahead of Mahomes as the QB1 on the season on the back of 370 rushing yards and six(!) rushing TDs through six weeks. Despite completing only nine(!) passes last week, he was the QB3! That is nuts. The Seahawks have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season including a monster Week 2 performance from the mobile Cam Newton. Murray essentially morphed into a fantasy cheat code before our eyes.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers @ HOU
Rodgers is boiling mad after the steaming turd the Packers laid on the field last week against the Buccaneers. The Packers haven’t lost back-to-back games since Week 13 of 2018. This game environment is screaming for points with the highest over/under (57) of the week. Houston is allowing the 7th most passing yards and ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA.

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Com-Four-table

Josh Allen @ NYJ
In Week 1, Allen lit up the Jets for 317 passing yards and two scores along with 57 rushing yards and another TD. He has a league-leading eight Play-Action TDs and I’m expecting a couple more this week against the league’s poorest excuse of an NFL team. The Jets rank 31st in pass DVOA, allowed the 5th most passing yards, and highest 3rd down success rate in the NFL. He should return to form and help banish the B-Hole forever.

Deshaun Watson vs GB
In two games with Bill O’Brien, Watson is back to his old fantasy wrecking self. He’ll be needed this week to try and keep pace with Aaron Rodgers. Luckily, Green Bay is allowing the 2nd highest 3rd Down Success Rate and the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Give Watson time and a clean pocket and he’s good for 25+ fantasy points. 

Matt Ryan vs DET
Matthew Stafford @ ATL
It’s a battle for Matthew supremacy! This game should speed up as Atlanta ranks 2nd in pace of play & 4th in neutral situation pace while Detroit is 8th in pace of play. When Julio Jones has finished a game this year, Matt Ryan has been the QB7, QB6, and QB2. That’s good enough for me! Stafford is set up for success against an Atlanta defense that allowed the most passing TDs in the league and registered just six total sacks. I like the over in terms of the Vegas total. Ryan is Andy’s Start of the Week and Stafford is Jason’s Taking it Up to 100 Player for Week 7.

Four-in-the-Door

Ben Roethlisberger @ TEN
Big Ben’s yardage totals look lower this year especially because he’s getting the ball out so quickly.

Seems like Pittsburgh made a conscious decision to get the ball out of Big Ben's hand quicker to protect their QB..

-Highest % of Dropbacks under 2.5 secs in pocket
-Most Completions Per Game under 2.5 secs in pocket
-Lowest Pressured % in NFL

And it's working…

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) October 22, 2020

I like him on the road against a Titans secondary that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the highest pass success rate in the league. Big Ben is Jason’s Start of the Week.

Justin Herbert vs JAX
Herbert is the league hotness right now as he’s thrown for 300+ or multiple TDs in all four of his starts so far. Call me shocked as I wrote up his rookie profile before the season and saw some major flaws in his game. Nevertheless, the Chargers aren’t babying him as he’s connected on five “deep passes” of 20+ yards for TDs on just 18 attempts. The Jaguars are a mess allowing the 4th most passing yards and 3rd highest pass success rate. “Herbs!” a solid low-end QB1 streamer.

Cam Newton vs SF
I’m not quite sure what to make of Newton. He looked atrocious last week but got there in terms of fantasy production with 70+ rushing yards and a score. Because he provides that baseline, it’s really tough to write him off because the floor is so high. He’s completed 80 percent of his play-action passes, which is something New England has to integrate if they want to be successful. He’s just not getting the ball downfield enough as the Patriots have the highest percentage of attempts “behind the line of scrimmage”. The 49ers rank 22nd in pass DVOA so this isn’t the same historic unit as 2019.

Getty Images / Kathryn Riley

Teddy Bridgewater @ NO
Teddy B is ready to throw down in a revenge game! His yardage has been there as he ranks 5th in passing yards but only thrown for x TDs so far. I think it evens out this week against a New Orleans team allowing high TD to INT ratio (15:3) and the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. I think Robby Anderson has a big game on the outside. Teddy B works as a cheap play in DFS stacks or as an emergency streamer in redraft leagues.

Four-Get-About-It

Ryan Tannehill vs PIT
Tanny insane run of efficiency has to come to an end one day right? What bothers me the most is the amount of pressure the Steelers get on the QB and the Titans losing LT Taylor Lewan to an ACL injury. He could get there on sheer volume as a home underdog but I don’t feel confident about his QB1 status this week. I’d rather stream elsewhere.

Tom Brady @ LV
Gruden versus the Bucs! This is made-for-TV stuff! The game total at first looks intriguing at 52 and the fact every single Raiders game has hit the over thus far. I like that trend to end this week. While the Raiders rank 31st in defensive DVOA, they’ve only allowed seven passing TDs through the air, 26th in the NFL. I just can’t get excited for a player completing just 64 percent of his passes and finishing outside the top-19 in half of his games so far.

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Drew Brees vs CAR
He’s right there on the fringe of being a QB1 but I just can’t click the button. While Carolina has registered the fewest sacks in the league, their zone defensive scheme has been fairly successful this year. They rank 13th in pass DVOA and allowed 4th fewest fantasy points against QBs. Brees can dink-and-dunk his way but it doesn’t quite offer a ceiling. Michael Thomas popping up on the injury report doesn’t help. Every Saints game has also hit the over this year. That’s a trend that I don’t think will continue.

Andy Dalton @ WSH
I wouldn’t try to get cute with Dalton this week. The Football team has an impressive defensive line and this defense is creating turnovers. They’re tied for the 3rd most INTs (7), rank 3rd in adjusted sack rate, and 6th in pass DVOA. Their QB fantasy points are skewed due to giving up monster rushing totals to Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.

Last Week: 7/12

2020 Hit Rate: 55.5 % (a very Footballers-esque number)