Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

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Week 1 saw 13 different QBs rush for over 22 yards and 16 different QBs throw for at least two touchdowns. There was a lot of production including some late additions to the top 12 such as Mitchell Trubisky and some garbage time from Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson.

Last week’s top-12 crew included:

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Russell Wilson 31.78
2 Aaron Rodgers 30.76
3 Josh Allen 28.18
4 Lamar Jackson 27.5
5 Kyler Murray 26.3
6 Cam Newton 25.7
7 Mitchell Trubisky 24.28
8 Matt Ryan 23.9
9 Ben Roethlisberger 22.06
10 Kirk Cousins 21.76
11* Deshaun Watson 20.82
11* Gardner Minshew 20.82

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 2.

Four-Sures

Lamar Jackson @ HOU
Lamar picked up where he left things off last year with three TDs and an easy Week 1 victory over the Browns. The Ravens have the highest team implied total of the week, as a road team. Now in #2020 that might mean something different but he’s got a massive ceiling this week against a team he dismantled for four TDs last year in Week 11. He’s not real.

Patrick Mahomes @ LAC
I was tempted to put Mahomes in the bust section this week as he’s averaged 214 passing yards against the Chargers in his career. This could be a CEH game and the Chargers defense is tough and… ok I couldn’t do it to myself. He’s great and I think I never want to bet against this man. Now in DFS, I will likely be underweight on Mahomes this week.

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Dak Prescott vs ATL
Last week Dak was under duress from Aaron Donald and company but the Falcons have little pass rush to worry about. This game has a 52.5 over/under after starting at 50. Russell Wilson went off for 31.8 fantasy points last week so you have to like Dak’s chances at home. With three WRs to work with, Dak can easily be the top QB for Week 2.

Russell Wilson vs NE
Whew, what a week! The #1 QB had a 97 percent adjusted completion rate against the Falcons. In other words, he threw only one true incompletion as two of his passes were dropped and another was batted at the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks ran the ball less than 20 times and this is the type of environment we need for Russ to keep things going even against the Patriots. Trust him at home as a 4.5 point favorite.

Com-Four-table

Josh Allen @ MIA
Allen went bananas last week and on the back of 52 dropbacks and 45 pass attempts, the most in a regular-season game in his career. He’s been off the charts against the Dolphins in his career averaging 2.5 passing TDs and 79.5 rushing yards. Just wow! He has weekly top-5 upside if he continues to see that type of volume in the air. Allen is Jason’s Start of the Week.

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers vs DET
Remind me that Rodgers is still a generational QB who made some of the best tight-window throws you’ll see in Week 1. He’s thrown for multiple TDs versus Detroit in eight straight games he’s finished.  The Lions will be without their top three CBs, all out with hamstring injuries. Angry Aaron Rodgers is never something you want to face at home in Lambeau.

Tom Brady vs CAR
I faded the old man last week but he’s the cover boy this week! While there were some bumps, he still looked accurate and Bruce Arians should fix things this week in a winnable game. The Bucs are set up for a major rebound at home with the second-highest team implied total of the week (29) against the Panthers. I also like the game to hit the over. If you drafted Brady, this the matchup where he gets things right even if Chris Godwin is out due to a concussion.

Matt Ryan @ DAL
He’s as safe as they come in terms of yardage each week. If 452 wasn’t enough from last week, consider the Falcons are in a 52 over/under. He could have some trouble with the Dallas defensive front but expect him to exploit the middle of the field with Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee out. He’s currently ranked as the Footballers consensus QB8 for Week 2.

Four-in-the-Door

Kyler Murray vs WSH
Murray looked great last week on the road against San Francisco willing his team to victory. He had 100 rushing yards before two kneel-downs at the end of the game. The chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins was real and should excite fantasy GMs that viewed Murray as a difference-maker at the position. Arizona has the 4th highest home team implied total (26.3) this weekend and he’s inching his way towards top tier status.

Cam Newton @ SEA
For those that jumped in on Cam’s late-round value in drafts, he paid off in a big way in Week 1. His 15 carries were the 2nd most of his career and that type of rushing floor is just so rare in fantasy. Traveling to Seattle is not great but you got to expect some passing production to come through with Julian Edelman and James White. Cam is Mike’s Start of the Week.

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Philip Rivers vs MIN
Despite the interceptions, Rivers threw the ball 46 times for 363 yards last week. He utilized Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield and showed some rapport with Parris Campbell. Rivers now faces one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Week 1 that Aaron Rodgers just torched. The Colts are three-point favorites at home in a game with a 47.5 over/under. His floor is high and perhaps the ceiling is low but if wearing a safety belt in fantasy is your thing, why not? Rivers is Andy’s Start of the Week.

Tyrod Taylor vs KC
My dart throw for Week 2 involves some trust as you peer over the abyss. This is more of a DFS play but I like Tyrod’s chances to put up viable fantasy numbers at home against Patrick Mahomes. For all the shade thrown his way, he had the 2nd highest Air Yards Per Attempt (11.6) in Week 1. I can see 35+ rushing yards on the ground to boost his overall floor. Start other safer options in season-long.

Four-Get-About-It

Deshaun Watson vs BAL
Listen, I’m not saying he’s unstartable. But the reality is even the best fantasy QBs on the planet have off weeks and this is not the matchup I’m wanting to bet on. In Week 11 last year, Watson and the Texans imploded against the Ravens to the tune of 169 passing yards and zero passing TDs. Mike has him ranked as the QB14 this week so if you want to sit him down, I get it.

Gavin Baker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Drew Brees @ LV
He could get there on sheer volume but I don’t love this setup especially with Michael Thomas out. I know its two weeks in a row I’m fading the Hall of Famer but this could turn into a slugfest on the ground on Monday night. The Raiders secondary is definitely beatable and Brees can will his way through volume to a top-12 finish. For context, Brees averaged just 196.4 passing yards a game on the road last year and just 19 fantasy points a contest. Andy has him ranked the lowest at QB14 this week so give me a streamer in his place.

Carson Wentz vs LAR
There is no chance I want to start Wentz given the status of his offensive line. After being sacked eight times last week in a loss to Washington, Aaron Donald is not someone I want to see staring you down. Wentz’s weapons are still banged up and I don’t love the outside receiver options with Jalen Ramsey. The Eagles are underdogs at home with just a 22.3 team implied total.

Matthew Stafford @ GB
Stafford was on the fringe for this week after averaging 288 passing yards per game in his career versus Green Bay. But with Kenny Golladay likely out again, it affected his approach last week. He only went deep (20+ yard downfield passes) on 7 percent of his attempts in Week 1, way down from his league-leading 22 percent last year. There are better options this week.


Last Week: 5/12

2020 Hit Rate: 42%

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