Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

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It’s almost playoff time so your start/sit questions for your QB is paramount. Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 teams you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 13.

Four-Sures

Patrick Mahomes vs DEN
This is a slam dunk. He’s going to win another league MVP and has been everything you wanted if you drafted him in the 3rd round of your fantasy drafts. He’s a more complete fantasy QB this year adding in 215 rush yds & five TDs on the ground.

Russell Wilson vs NYG
The Seahawks have morphed back into their early form of a run-first team. After averaging 321 passing yards per game through the first eight games, he’s regressed to 221 yards per game over his last three. But it doesn’t mean that Russell Wilson isn’t a great play and someone who can get there the way he’s always done it: efficiently. The Seahawks have a 28-point team implied total so four TDs are coming from somewhere.

Aaron Rodgers vs PHI
This feels like one of the surest things this week. Rodgers has been on fire and awesome in so many statistical categories. He’s thrown for the 4th most 20+ yard pass plays, 6th most pass yards, and 2nd most points per drive in the NFL. The Packers have one of the highest implied totals (28.3) of the week and the Eagles are in the midst of a lost season. He’s the Footballers Consensus QB2 on the week.

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Justin Herbert vs NE
The rookie has shown us a safe floor averaging 40 pass attempts per game. While Bill Belichick has a 19-5 career record versus rookie QBs, this is a different New England defense. The Patriots rank 30th in pass DVOA, the highest pass success rate in the NFL, and the 6th highest yards per play. They want to slow things down but with Austin Ekeler back in the mix, I can’t see this Chargers offense stopped.

Com-Four-table

Deshaun Watson vs IND
As discussed on today’s podcast, Deshaun Watson is continuing life without Will Fuller where his splits are much discussed on Twitter. Regardless, he’s averaged 312 pass yards per game versus Indianapolis in his career. The one place you can beat Indianapolis is in the intermediate passing game and that is where Watson has been so effective. He’s targeted players in that region (between 10-19 yards) 28 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Trust Watson’s talent and the Vegas total.

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Ryan Tannehill vs CLV
He’s not playing at the insane level he was last year but Tannehill has guided the Titans to eight wins. He’s completing 70% of his passes in the red-zone and 5th in fantasy points per dropback He’s had a murderers row of opponents in the last six weeks: Pittsburgh, Chicago, Indy, Baltimore, and Indy again. Cleveland is a plus matchup with the highest over/under on the week. Tannehill is Jason’s Start of the Week.

Kirk Cousins vs JAX
Perhaps you’ve overlooked Captain Kirk this season. He has the highest TD rate (7.2%) of his career & multiple TD passes in 8-of-11 games. Jacksonville has been especially awful against opposing QB with top-12 performances given up in four of the last five. They have the lowest pressure rate and sack rate, allowing the 4th most passing yards in the NFL, and rank 31st in pass DVOA. Cousins is Andy’s Start of the Week.

Lamar Jackson vs DAL
If not now, when? The Dallas defense is allowing the most rushing yards per game and the most passing TDs in the NFL. How? It’s really hard to accomplish both of those dubious tasks and that combo is exactly the right kind of mixture for fantasy. Bet on the upside and a chance for the Ravens to make a statement after dropping three in a row.

Four-in-the-Door

Philip Rivers @ HOU
Whether you’ve seen this recently or not but Philip Rivers has been fine for fantasy recently. He has 18+ fantasy points in five of his last six games. That’s a safe floor but he has enough playmakers to bust out. Rivers has the 7th most 20+ pass yard plays and the Texans have allowed the 9th most total passing yards. This game has the 3rd highest total (51.5) on the slate so he can get there.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs CIN
Presumably the starter, when the Dolphins offense has Fitzmagic at the helm, we see the passing volume we like for fantasy. The Bengals rank 26th in pass DVOA, the 4th most 20+ yard plays, and second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. This is another #revengegame although it seems like almost every week Fitz is ready to stick it to his old team. Fire him up as a solid QB1 and someone I’ll be using in DFS.

Baker Mayfield @ TEN
He’s as risky as they get but we have to throw out a lot of his statistics over the last month due to those horrible weather games. Last week we finally saw him make some money throws and show some rapport with Jarvis Landry. Tennessee is vulnerable through the air allowing the 5th MOST passing yards, ranking 27th in pass DVOA, and 29th in sack rate. This game also sports the highest total of the week so if there is gonna be some back-and-forth, I could see Baker show up for 270+ passing yards and two TDs easily.

Derek Carr vs NYJ
I know by now you pulled over the Carr and vomited from last week’s putrid performance. But press reset and open your eyes to this week’s matchup. They might need to lean on Carr if Josh Jacobs is out. The Jets are giving up a WR1 performance EVERY WEEK since Week 5 and rank dead last in pass DVOA.

Four Get-About-It

Kyler Murray vs LAR
I’m not telling you to bench Kyler. He’s been unbelievable this year but there are some warning signs including the cliff his rushing equity has seen. He ranks 31st in QB rating under pressure and boy do these Rams know how to get after the QB. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Last year in Week 17, he put up 325 passing yards and two TDs against the Rams BUT also committed four turnovers. I’m wary of him this week.

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Josh Allen @ SF
Wow. I’m basically banishing two of the top QB options of the season. This could be rougher than people realize with Buffalo traveling across the country. San Francisco’s defense is bent on defending the intermediate passing game. They made Jared Goff look #bad last week and I think Allen will have similar trouble this week. The 49ers rank 2nd against the pass allowing only 216 passing yards per game.

Taysom Hill @ ATL
Ok, call me a hater but I think this train is about the have an abrupt halt. The Falcons already have game film from playing him just two weeks ago and he’s still yet to throw a passing TD in his professional career. If the rushing TDs don’t come through, you could be looking at a player with 12 points and little to show for it despite all the “QB power” run calls.

Carson Wentz @ GB
Start him if you need to remind yourself you’re alive… just to feel the stress pulsating through your body. He’s being sacked on 11% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL, and leads the league in turnovers. Yikes.


Last Week: 5/12

2020 Hit Rate: 54%

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