Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

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It was a banner week for the QB predictions article as last week we hit 9-of-12 QBs on the nose. This brings our year-end total to a very Fantasy Footballers-esque 55.5 percent on the year.

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Kyler Murray* 37.92
2 Josh Allen* 36
3 Patrick Mahomes* 31.48
4 Drew Lock* 29.22
5 Aaron Rodgers* 28.9
6 Teddy Bridgewater 28.3
7 Ben Roethlisberger* 25.04
8 Cam Newton 24.56
9 Deshaun Watson* 24.24
10 Justin Herbert* 23.44
11 Drew Brees 22.68
12 Matt Ryan* 22.36

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 teams you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 10.

Four-Sures

Kyler Murray vs. BUF
He’s basically been a cheat code thus far registering the most fantasy points for a QB’s first eight games in NFL history. Yes, you read that correctly. MOST EVER. He has NINE rushing TDs this year… more than 17 other NFL teams. You should start him.

Aaron Rodgers vs. JAX
Rodgers is in MVP form averaging three passing TDs per game. The Packers are averaging the most points per drive in NFL and oh yeah, he has some guy named Davante Adams to throw to. The Jaguars are allowing the 2nd most yards per play and the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Oh and they rank dead last in pass DVOA allowing the second-highest yards per attempt (8.5) in the league. Green Bay should roll with a near 32-point team implied total, the highest of the week.

Josh Allen @ ARZ
Allen reasserted himself last week with four total TDs. He’s in the perfect pace-up spot as Arizona averages the 4th most combined plays per game. The key is John Brown, who’s in a revenge spot. In three games Brown has finished this year, Allen is the QB3, QB3, and QB2. Book it.

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Russell Wilson @ LAR
Yes, I know it was rough last week but he’s gotten you this far in fantasy. Wilson has averaged 2.5 passing TDs per game against the Rams over the last two years. Seattle games feature the 2nd most combined plays per game and with a 55.5 total, this game should go bananas.

Com-Four-table

Jared Goff vs. SEA
Fire up the next QB lining up to take on the Seahawks. They’re giving up 28 fantasy points per game (most in NFL) including only one non-top-12 game given up. Goff has averaged 21 fantasy points per game in his last four against Seattle. Goff is Mike’s Start of the Week.

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Deshaun Watson @ CLV
Since Bill O’Brien left, things have been cooking for Watson. The Texans have let him take control with the 7th fastest in pace of and the second-highest pass rate. The Browns defense is allowing the 9th most pass yards per game, 3rd most points per drive, and the 3rd lowest pressure rate. if those stats don’t inundate you with the fact Watson is going to smash, remember: he’s Deshaun Watson.

Carson Wentz @ NYG
Shield your eyes when you consider he leads the league with 12 INTs. In fact, he’s at 1:1 this year with only 12 TDs. So why is Wentz the cover boy? He often Mr. Magoos his way into fantasy production specifically because the Eagles throw as much as anyone near the goal-line. He was a top-10 QB against these Giants earlier in Week 7 and the Giants are allowing the 4th highest completion rate (69.5) in the league. Wentz is Andy’s Stream of the Week.

Lamar Jackson @ NE
You’re probably disappointed but I think we’re going to see a signature game from Lamar on Sunday night. The New England defense isn’t the same bunch we saw last year. The Patriots are allowing the highest yards per attempt (8.8) in the league and a healthy 67.8 percent completion rate. Last year he ran for 62 yards and two scores against New England in Week 9 en route to a 30.72 fantasy point outing. He’ll be fine and you should start him.

Four-in-the-Door

Tom Brady vs CAR
The “Plant Man” had a barf-worthy week last week. Before that, he was a top-10 QB in the two previous weeks. The last time he had a horrific game like this was Week 16 in 2018 when he threw for 126 total yards and two picks. The next week: four TDs. It’s a bet on Brady and his weapons to figure it out after being humiliated in Prime Time. Brady is Jason’s Start of the Week.

Drew Brees vs SF
Brees went for four TDs last week reminding us how efficient he can be. The 49ers have been torched four out of the last six weeks by opposing QBs. This isn’t the same intimidating defense we saw last year. Brees has been a QB1 for four straight weeks so stay in the flames. He’s Andy’s Start of the Week.

Tua Tagovailoa vs LAC
The rookie is on this list for multiple reasons. Tua showed why he was a top-5 pick last week against Arizona. Charger games are averaging the most plays per game in NFL and the fastest pace in the league with a lead. They’ve also allowed the 4th most fantasy points in the league to QBs. Tua is the consensus QB12 in the Fantasy Footballers rankings.

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Daniel Jones vs PHI
Whoa, nelly. If you want to go for a wild ride this week and potentially damage some brain cells, Jones is a dart throw. He’s more of a GPP-play in DFS but the Eagles (apart from Darius Slay) have a beatable secondary. Jones threw multiple TDs against Philly earlier this year and last year went for over 300 passing yards against them. Right now this game has a 44-point total and I like the over quite a lot.

Four-Get-About-It

Justin Herbert @ MIA
Jason mentioned last week that this would be the week the “shoe drops” for Herbert and I agree. This Miami team ranks 8th in pass DVOA with two shutdown corners. We saw Miami’s defense completely annihilate the Rams a few weeks ago. Miami also loves to slow things down as Brian Flores’ squad ranks 30th in pace of play. I just don’t see the ceiling this week.

Baker Mayfield vs HOU
This seems like a typical letdown spot for Baker. Before being in a weather game with the Raiders, he threw five TDs and it looked like he got his groove back. While the Texans pass defense isn’t scary, it’s their rush defense that is atrocious. I expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to take care of things on the ground thus limiting Mayfield’s upside.

Drew Lock @ LV
Lock is heating up and fantasy managers might be tempted to start him against the Raiders who are #bad on defense. But realize the Broncos’ pace of play stats were elevated by fast opponents: ATL and LAC. Las Vegas, on the other hand, ranks 28th in neutral situation pace and dead last in run DVOA. That’s a recipe for Denver to try to control the clock on the ground. I like the under in this game.

Ryan Tannehill vs IND
This Thursday game needs to be cleared out of your mind. Tannehill has been solid but things have slowed down the last couple of weeks. Indianapolis has allowed only ten passing TDs, the 2nd fewest in NFL, and only one QB1 performance. No thanks. I don’t want to go into the weekend feeling sad I start him on Thursday.


Last Week: 9/12

2020 Hit Rate: 55.5%

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