NFL Week 10 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)
We knew this year would be full of challenges, but I wasn’t expecting it to come from weather. There are a few games that are downright nasty and a couple more that could be bad depending on the timing of the weather. We’re all going to have to pay attention to lineups leading right up to kickoff.
This article will be updated leading up to the games and here on Sunday morning with a final update around 12:30 pm ET.
Catch ‘SUNDAY LIVE’ at Noon ET — Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright will be answering start/sit questions, and covering injury updates for Week 10.
Sunday, November 15th, 2020:
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM ET
Precipitation: None (Update: Light Rain)
Wind: 36 mph
Wind Gusts: 50 mph
Fantasy Impact: We saw nearly identical conditions just a couple weeks ago when Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr combined for 233 yards and one TD passing. Incredibly, five field goals were made, but both kickers missed one with Daniel Carlson‘s miss going viral after the wind killed it. Jarvis Landry ended up being the only player on either team to record 30 or more receiving yards with 52 yards on four receptions. That was on 11 targets and here we are again.
CLE is simple to figure out. They have the best 1-2 combination at RB with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb back and they are facing a HOU defense that’s 28th in defensive rushing DVOA. HOU’s defense has given up the most rushing yards in the league and they’re one of only three teams to give up double digit rushing TDs on the year. CLE will lean on the running game with Chubb and Hunt easily seeing 35 or more touches. Baker Mayfield isn’t even startable in 2-QB leagues and CLE WRs shouldn’t be in starting lineups, but Jarvis Landry can be a desperate flex. CLE TEs combined for six targets back in Week 8 giving Austin Hooper some fantasy appeal as a low-end TE1
HOU is a bit trickier to figure out. Deshaun Watson has struggled in windy conditions with only five TDs total and 228 passing yards per game across four games in windy conditions. Both Mayfield and Carr ran for season highs in Week 8 so Watson’s fantasy standing may rest on whether he’s able to punch it in for a rushing TD, making him a risky start even in 2-QB formats. Will Fuller should be a desperation-only start. Brandin Cooks has a lower average depth of target and plays more out of the slot than Fuller, but he’s also a very risky start. Randall Cobb has only seen more than six targets once this year, but he has the lowest average depth of target and operates out of the slot the most. I’m calling my shot; Randall Cobb is the target leader with 8 targets, which he converts into 5 receptions for 48 scoreless yards. Jordan Akins and Darren Fells are likely to get a few targets, but neither have much value aside from being TD-dependent dart throws.
(Update: There’s a chance we’ll see a passing shower around the second quarter adding to the misery on the field, but the winds are the bigger concern. Winds will be around 25 mph at kickoff, pick up to a peak of 35 mph around the third quarter, and finish around 29 mph. Gusts will push near 50 mph. None of this is good, but it looked like the entire game would be played in mid-30 mph winds yesterday so it’s some improvement.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM ET
BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA
Precipitation: None (Update: Light Showers)
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 33 mph
Fantasy Impact: (Update: Showers will be in the area around kickoff, but they’ll be light even if we see them.)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
1:00 PM ET
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY
Precipitation: Rain (Update: None)
Wind: 17 mph
Wind Gusts: 36 mph
Fantasy Impact: We’re probably going to see a light rain start to set in for the second half, but it shouldn’t have an affect on fantasy. This is going to be a breezy game, but nothing near as problematic as the winds in Cleveland.
(Update: It looks like the rain won’t show up until after the game. Winds will start at 17 mph for kickoff, but gradually increase to around 20 mph by the end of the game. Good luck finding kickers not affected by winds this week.)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN
Precipitation: None (Update: Flurries)
Wind: 25 mph (Update: 26 mph)
Wind Gusts: 41 mph
Fantasy Impact: I saw reports of snow, but it doesn’t seem like we’re going to see any during this game. The far bigger issue is the wind and cold.
Aaron Rodgers is more than used to this type of weather. There is a moderate decline in play when he’s in the cold and the wind, but he’s still playing out of his mind this year and he still has Davante Adams who seems to prefer cold weather. In 27 cold weather games (21-40°), he has 19 TDs, which is more TDs than he has across 42 games played in mild and warm weather combined. Another player that crushes in bad weather is Aaron Jones. He averages one TD rushing and 5.0 ypc in windy games. He averages 5.5 ypc and has 8 TDs across 11 cold games. This feels like a monster game for Jones and Adams is a must-start, but avoid all other GB receivers.
Jake Luton is at least familiar with the cold from playing with Idaho and Oregon State, but these will be tough conditions for the rookie. The one big positive JAX has going for it is a friendly defensive matchup for their running game. GB leads the league in RB rushing TDs allowed with 11 and they’re tied for second coughing up an additional four TDs to RBs through the air. They’ve also allowed the second-most receiving yards to RBs. All this to say James Robinson should see plenty of opportunities. Jaire Alexander is doubtful, but this still isn’t the game to trust any JAX receivers, including D.J. Chark despite exploding for 146 yards and a TD last week. If Luton performs well in this game in these conditions, then Minshew Mania is officially over and Tootin’ for Luton is on.
(Update: I keep seeing reports of rain/snow for the game, but most of that should be past by kickoff. We might see some flurries right around kickoff, but they’ll be very light if we see anything at all. The field will be wet and a little slick from the morning precipitation.)
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
4:05 PM ET
HARD ROCK STADIUM
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA
Precipitation: Rain (Update: None)
Wind: 3 mph
Wind Gusts: 6 mph
Fantasy Impact: There are going to be showers in the area towards the second half of the game. Even if it rains, it won’t be hard enough or accompanied with high enough winds to have a fantasy impact.
(Update: It doesn’t look like there will be any showers in the area.)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
4:25 PM ET
Precipitation: None (Update: Rain)
Wind: 16 mph (Update: 22 mph)
Wind Gusts: 35 mph (update: 50 mph)
Fantasy Impact: I’m going to be watching this game very closely. It looks like strong winds and rain will let up right before kickoff, but it’s close. The weather could easily push into this game so keep an eye on the forecasts around noon on Sunday-or check back here.
(Update: We’re going to see rain and winds around 22 mph at kickoff. The good news is, the winds and rain should die off a bit to 17 mph by halftime.
Ben Roethlisberger has had little problem with windy conditions. In 61 career games played in windy conditions, he’s averaged 245 yards and over 1.5 passing TDs per game. CIN has one of the most exploitable defenses in the league making Roethlisberger startable in 2-QB leagues. CIN’s defense is especially weak against the run and opposing TEs. They’ve given up just shy of 1,000 yards rushing already this year. James Conner has been very quiet the last few weeks, but scored in four straight games earlier this year that included three 100-yard rushing days. In weather like this, expect PIT to stick with a simple strategy and trust their veterans. defending TEs has also been a problem for CIN. Eric Ebron has seen an average of seven targets per game over the last three weeks and should see some shorter targets in this game as well. He’s also riding a two-game TD streak. You can do worse at TE. The WR situation in PIT is murky on good days for fantasy. JuJu Smith-Schuster is finally seeing consistent targets with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool exploding for huge games. I don’t think the weather is necessarily a good or bad thing for any of them.
Joe Burrow has been phenomenal despite the lack of talent around him. Joe Mixon is out and Gio Bernard, capable as he is as a backup, is heading into a mismatch. Bernard will be in line for work, but will need to have a big day receiving to hit RB2 territory. Expect Burrow to have to throw a ton despite the weather, which means Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins should see plenty of targets again. Drew Sample…he’s had a couple nice games, but he’s impossible to trust with a couple goose eggs to his name. A.J. Green is only good as a desperation start.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
8:20 PM ET
Wind: 18 mph (Update: 22 mph)
Wind Gusts: 45 mph
Fantasy Impact: This is yet another game with nasty weather expected towards the end of the game. This one’s easier to decipher though. Is NE a high-volume passing offense? No. Is BAL a high-volume passing offense? No. Would high winds and rain affect low-volume passing attacks? Not really. The only three reliable fantasy assets in this game are Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and whichever BAL RB gets the most goal-line carries. Marquise Brown…I’m waiting until Sunday around noon to answer.
(Update: It’s almost noon and the weather looks worse. Marquise Brown is a sit. It’s only a matter of time before he explodes, but Jackson is already having a hard time getting him involved in games and this weather makes it that much more difficult. Brown is certainly capable of busting plays wide open and there’s the squeaky wheel narrative but this isn’t looking like the week.)
Monday, November 16th, 2020:
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
8:15 PM ET
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 41 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
should I start Teddy Bridgewater over Deshaun Watson based on weather?