Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2020, Part 2

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In Part 2 of The Fantasy Footballers TRUTH about WRs episode, the guys talked about the WRs that missed the top-8 on the season. Every season, WR is regarded as the deepest position group so these 2nd tier guys are still important. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about.

If you missed Part 1 we wrote about that episode too and if you need more WR content, we have some great stuff. Aaron Larson kept the 25 Stats series moving with the WRs and Kyle Borgognoni took a hard look at the historical significance of some of 2020’s WR anomalies.

Quick Explanation

The Fantasy Footballers base WR fantasy points on .5 PPR Scoring. Consistency scores are based on a player’s Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:

Great Games are more than 20 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 12 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 8 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score

9. Tyler Lockett (ADP: WR22 / 5.02) – Consistency Rank: 44
1st half of season consistency rank: 29 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 55

16 games — 132 targets for 100/1054/10
Great 19% | Good 38% | Bust 50%
Defenses: +3.43 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.8 fantasy points on average at Home

Has there been a worse top-10 WR season ever? Lockett hurt you at least as often as he helped you. His great games were so great but he Busted in half of his games. From Week 12 on, he Busted every week. He was solid for the 1st half of the season but that does little to make up for his 2nd half. Since the Ballers started the TRUTH series, no top-10 WRs has Busted more than Lockett in 2020. The Seahawks have said they want to run the ball more in 2021, so if you look at both WRs (Lockett and DK Metcalf), they are likely to be overdrafted next season based on their 2020 final ranking.

10. Mike Evans (ADP: WR8 / 3.04) – Consistency Rank: 15
1st half of season consistency rank: 25 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

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16 games — 109 targets for 70/1006/13
Great 13% | Good 63% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -0.41 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.76 fantasy points on average at Home

It was a solid season for Evans and it’s safe to say he was still “the guy” in this offense. It was Brady’s 1st year in this offense and it was clear that Evans was his favorite target. Evans just squeaked by getting 1000 yards, making it seven consecutive seasons hitting that mark. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are both free agents next season so there is little reason to think Evans can’t remain the top target in 2021. Touchdown regression is always a possibility and that may lead to Evans being overdrafted in 2021 but the yardage will always be there and that is going to save his floor.

11. AJ Brown (ADP: WR18 / 4.06) – Consistency Rank: 6
1st half of season consistency rank: 9 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 9

14 games — 106 targets for 70/1075/11
Great 29% | Good 64% | Bust 21%
Defenses: -4.39 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.5 fantasy points on average at Home

It was a rough open to the season but Brown still was dominant in 2021. His early letdown led to his lower ranking and that is going to help lower his draft price in next season. After returning from injury, he was the WR3 in fantasy football. Corey Davis may be gone and the Titans will certainly bring in some WRs but Brown is the alpha in Tennessee. He is coming off of knee surgeries (both knees) but a full recovery is expected and that could make him even better in 2021.

12. Allen Robinson (ADP: WR12 / 3.10) – Consistency Rank: 16
1st half of season consistency rank: 23 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 19

16 games — 151 targets for 102/1250/6
Great 19% | Good 44% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +0.88 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.13 fantasy points on average at Home

Robinson was phenomenal on the field but suffered from bad QB play in 2020. His lower TDs hurt his ranking but the targets and receptions helped tremendously. His future is very questionable right now for 2021. He is a free agent and his landing spot will make all the difference in how we view him next season. He has played well with bad QBs so his floor feels safe but if he ends up with a good QB, his ceiling could be top-10.

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13. Robert Woods (ADP: WR17/ 4.05) – Consistency Rank: 22
1st half of season consistency rank: 17 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 35

16 games — 129 targets for 90/936/6 — 24/155/2 — 2 fumbles
Great 13% | Good 56% | Bust 38%
Defenses: +1.76 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -6.32 fantasy points on average at Home

Woods did what Robert Woods does in 2020. His bust rate was a little higher than we’ve come to expect but he was a solid WR2 all season long. However, Matt Stafford comes to town for 2021 and that should make everyone more confident heading into next season…should. The worry is that we knew Woods was the favorite target for Jared Goff, we don’t know that in 2021 with Stafford. The addition of Stafford will likely pump Woods and Kupp’s ADP up and that might end up being a mistake.

14. Keenan Allen (ADP: WR23/ 5.03) – Consistency Rank: 7
1st half of season consistency rank: 12 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

14 games — 147 targets for 100/992/8
Great 21% | Good 57% | Bust 21%
Defenses: +1.4 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +8.3 fantasy points on average at Home

It was the tale of three seasons for Allen. The early season was full of low passing volume worry in an offense led by Tyrod Taylor. That went away pretty quickly. When Justin Herbert took over, and Austin Ekeler was hurt, Allen was a locked and loaded WR1. The volume was great, the production was great, and Allen was great for fantasy managers. Once Ekeler returned, Allen was still very good but there was a dip in fantasy production.  In Weeks 2-14, Keenan Allen was the WR5 in fantasy football. There will be many changes for LAC in 2021: a new head coach, a better defense, and the possible loss of Hunter Henry. His floor is as safe as ever but his ceiling may leave some wanting in 2021.

15. Brandin Cooks (ADP: WR35 / 8.01) – Consistency Rank: 21
1st half of season consistency rank: 34 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10

15 games — 119 targets for 81/1150/6
Great 20% | Good 40% | Bust 27%
Defenses: -8.37 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +5.98 fantasy points on average at Home

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This may be the most shocking entry into the WR ranks so far. Cooks benefited from the loss of Will Fuller at the end of the season. Fuller was the WR1 in Houston until his suspension and Cooks took full advantage of that role during Fuller’s time away. You cannot expect this again in 2021. The Texans may have a new QB next season. Will Fuller could be gone in free agency. If he is the clear WR1 for Watson, Cooks could be great in 2021. There are just a lot of “ifs” to make that happen.

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16. Amari Cooper (ADP: WR16 / 4.04) – Consistency Rank: 9
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 16

16 games — 130 targets for 92/1114/5 — 6/14/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 63% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +1.1 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.77 fantasy points on average at Home

It was a very distorted season for Amari Cooper. He was the WR7 from Weeks 1-6. A lot of that was carried by Dak Prescott but he was WR30 after Week 7. This season is hard to judge the TRUTH of any Dallas Cowboy. QB play is so important and if the Cowboys have a healthy Dak next season, 2021 could be a far better season. The biggest debate for Cooper, assuming Dak is back, will be Cooper vs Ceedee Lamb. Lamb is the new hotness but Cooper looked like the WR1 in 2020. Their ADPs will play a large part in who you should draft in 2021.

17. Marvin Jones (ADP: WR39 / 9.03) – Consistency Rank: 44
1st half of season consistency rank: 60 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 31

16 games — 115 targets for 76/978/9
Great 19% | Good 31% | Bust 50%
Defenses: -4.51 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.75 fantasy points on average at Home

While Jones was far from consistent in 2020, but he was the WR4 from Week 8. Jones balled out when Stafford was healthy and Kenny Golladay was not. Jones is a free agent, as is Golladay, and Jared Goff is now in Detroit. It is fair to say that Jones is not washed, we just need to see where he lands in 2021.

18. Juju Smith-Schuster (ADP: WR13 / 3.12) – Consistency Rank: 17
1st half of season consistency rank: 26 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 18

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16 games — 128 targets for 97/831/9
Great 13% | Good 56% | Bust 31%
Defenses: +0.73 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.63 fantasy points on average at Home

Juju, and all of the Steelers WRs, finished the season not as good as you’d hoped but not as bad as you thought they were. It is very unlikely that Juju is back in Pittsburgh, and that makes Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool very interesting and puts us in the same free-agent waiting game on Juju’s landing spot.

19. Chase Claypool (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 38
1st half of season consistency rank: 33 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 41

16 games — 109 targets for 62/873/9 — 10/16/2 rushing
Great 6% | Good 38% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -4.48 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +5.12 fantasy points on average at Home

A lot of “ifs” play into Clyapool’s 2021. Is Ben Roethlisberger able to throw the deep ball? Will Juju be back? We have to expect development but there are still plenty of questions.

20. CeeDee Lamb (ADP: WR37 / 8.06) – Consistency Rank: 31
1st half of season consistency rank: 30 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 40

16 games — 111 targets for 74/935/5 — 10/82/1 rushing
Great 13% | Good 38% | Bust 38%
Defenses: -5.23 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.93 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Ceedee was only discussed during the Amari Cooper segment. The real questions for 2021 being whether or not Dak is the QB and if Lamb can overtake Cooper as the team’s WR1.

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21. Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR21 / 5.01) – Consistency Rank: 11
1st half of season consistency rank: 16 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 16

15 games — 134 targets for 87/1118/4 — 2/30/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 47% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -3.62 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.61 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

22. DJ Moore (ADP: WR10 / 3.03) – Consistency Rank: 28
1st half of season consistency rank: 40 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 22

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15 games — 118 targets for 66/1193/4 — 2/22/0 rushing
Great 7% | Good 47% | Bust 40%
Defenses: +0.57 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.59 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: The guys discussed the Carolina WRs as a whole. With Curtis Samuel likely leaving as a free-agent, Moore and Robby Anderson should benefit from “addition by subtraction”. Moore and Anderson spread their work out all over the season and Samuel took over after Week 7. The problem was that it was just about impossible to know when to start any of these guys. A QB improvement is not out of the question for 2021 and that could help these WRs out in 2021.

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23. Diontae Johnson (ADP: WR38 / 8.10) – Consistency Rank: 24
1st half of season consistency rank: 57 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 7

15 games — 144 targets for 88/923/7 — 3/15/0 rushing + league-leading 11 Drops
Great 13% | Good 47% | Bust 33%
Defenses: -0.62 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.12 fantasy points on average at Home

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Note: Was hardly discussed on the show though he is considered the WR to roster for Pittsburgh in 2021.

24. Robby Anderson (ADP: WR67) – Consistency Rank: 19
1st half of season consistency rank: 14 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 33

16 games — 136 targets for 95/1096/3 — 4/15/0 rushing
Great 6% | Good 44% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -4.35 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.1 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: See DJ Moore

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25. Curtis Samuel (ADP: WR64 – Consistency Rank: 28
1st half of season consistency rank: 56 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10

15 games — 97 targets for 77/851/3 — 41/200/2 rushing
Great 7% | Good 47% | Bust 40%
Defenses: -1.31 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.18 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: See DJ Moore

27. Cooper Kupp (ADP: WR15 / 4.03) – Consistency Rank: 30
1st half of season consistency rank: 27 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 43

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15 games — 124 targets for 92/974/3 — 4/33/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 27% | Bust 33%
Defenses: +0.29 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -4.21 fantasy points on average at Home

It was a very disappointing year for Kupp. The receptions and yards are not bad but three TDs killed his value. Kupp’s value has always been his TD upside and that killed his season. The addition of Matt Stafford was discussed earlier in the show and how he would feed both Kupp in Woods. Kupp’s 2020 finish might make him a value in 2021 drafts.

28. Will Fuller (AADP: WR28 / 6.09) – Consistency Rank: 5
1st half of season consistency rank: 7 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

11 games — 75 targets for 53/879/8
Great 18% | Good 64% | Bust 18%
Defenses: -7.64 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -6.68 fantasy points on average at Home

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Note: Was hardly discussed show. Was great in 2020 but obviously ended the season on a low, being suspended for six games. Is a free-agent, landing spot will determine his 2021 value.

31. Corey Davis (ADP: WR73) – Consistency Rank: 23
1st half of season consistency rank: 6 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 41

14 games — 92 targets for 65/984/5
Great 14% | Good 43% | Bust 29%
Defenses: -6.53 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.65 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not really discussed on the show but is a free-agent in 2021.

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32. Chris Godwin (ADP: WR6 / 2.11) – Consistency Rank: 10
1st half of season consistency rank: 22 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10

12 games — 84 targets for 65/840/7
Great 8% | Good 43% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -4.48 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.18 fantasy points on average at Home

Godwin had a rough start to the year but you cannot ignore his consistency. Overall, injuries and taking a backseat to Mike Evans hurt his final ranking but you cannot forget about him in 2021. His 2nd half of the season showed that he is still a good WR…but he is also a free-agent and, as you may have read before, his landing spot will determine his value.

NOTE: No players beyond this point were discussed in-depth on the show but are notable enough to show their year-end stats and consistency.

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33. Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR55) – Consistency Rank: 12
1st half of season consistency rank: 24 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 6

12 games — 96 targets for 60/748/5 — 6/77/2 rushing
Great 0% | Good 67% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -0.51 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.95 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

34. Marquise Brown (ADP: WR26 / 5.10) – Consistency Rank: 33
1st half of season consistency rank: 54 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 23

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16 games — 100 targets for 58/769/8
Great 0% | Good 44% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -1.93 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.69 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

36. Jarvis Landry (ADP: WR36 / 8.02) – Consistency Rank: 39
1st half of season consistency rank: 57 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 20

15 games — 101 targets for 72/840/3 — 4/10/1 rushing
Great 7% | Good 33% | Bust 40%
Defenses: -1.46 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -4.66 fantasy points on average at Home

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Note: Was not discussed on the show.

48. DJ Chark (ADP: WR20 / 4.12) – Consistency Rank: 50
1st half of season consistency rank: 35 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 59

13 games — 93 targets for 57/706/5
Great 15% | Good 23% | Bust 54%
Defenses: -3.21 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.96 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

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53. Julio Jones (ADP: WR3 / 2.01) – Consistency Rank: 14
1st half of season consistency rank: 19 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 21

9 games — 68 targets for 51/771/3
Great 22% | Good 67% | Bust 33%
Defenses: -6.03 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.97 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed much on the show but DO NOT FORGET ABOUT HIM.

97. Deebo Samuel (ADP: WR34 / 7.12) – Consistency Rank: 46
1st half of season consistency rank: 51 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 29

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7 games — 44 targets for 33/391/1 — 8/26/0 rushing
Great 0% | Good 29% | Bust 43%
Defenses: +5.02 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -7.11 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

98. Michael Thomas (ADP: WR1 / 1.06) – Consistency Rank: 47
1st half of season consistency rank: NA | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 39

7 games — 55 targets for 40/438/0
Great 0% | Good 43% | Bust 57%
Defenses: -8.7 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -3.26 fantasy points on average at Home

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Note: Was not discussed much on the show but DO NOT FORGET ABOUT HIM…also, monitor his QB situation.

Comments

Bradnr says:

How would Odell Beckham Jr have ranked in consistency? Where would he have finished as far as points per game? Thank you.

Brad says:

Massive giant THANK YOU to the analyst that filled out ALL the percentages and for big names not mentioned in the podcast (for RB and QB as well)!!!

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