Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2020, Part 1
After tackling the QBs last week, The Fantasy Footballers get to the TRUTH about fantasy RBs from 2020 this week. In Part 1, they go over the top-8 RBs from this past season. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about.
If you’re looking for even more great info on fantasy RBs we have not one. but two articles for you to check out. Jeff Greenwood put together the 25 Stats from RB in 2020 and I did some research on the correlation between defenses and RB targets.
The Fantasy Footballers base RB fantasy points on .5 PPR Scoring. Consistency scores are based on a player’s Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:
Great Games are more than 21 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 11 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
1. Alvin Kamara (ADP: RB4 / 1.05) – Consistency Rank: 3
1st half of season consistency rank: 3 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 9
15 games — 187/932/16 — 107 targets for 83/756/5 — 1 fumble
Great 33% | Good 87% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -2.56 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.47 fantasy points on average at Home
Kamara was on pace for an all-time great season to start the year but he was a very different player after Drew Brees got hurt. He was still good without Brees but his worst games came when Brees was sidelined and with Brees set to retire, that could be a problem for 2021. Obviously, he showed on Christmas Day that is an absolute stud that is worthy of a top pick in again 2021 but this could be a very different Saints team next year. While expectations may need to be tempered, he is still Alvin Kamara and you are going to be happy to have him on your fantasy team.
2. Derrick Henry (ADP: RB6 / 1.06) – Consistency Rank: 7
1st half of season consistency rank: 5 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 12
16 games — 378/2027/17 — 31 targets for 19/114/0 — 3 fumbles
Great 38% | Good 75% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -5.69 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -8.3 fantasy points on average at Home
There is no denying Henry’s greatness and his ability to singlehandedly win you a fantasy matchup but his lack of pass-catching seems to limit his ceiling. Now, when a guy carries the ball 378 times, that limitation is negligible. We all know that targets and receptions are more valuable than carries but Henry’s work and volume are just about guaranteed and he needs to be discussed as a top-3 RB next season.
3. Dalvin Cook (ADP: RB7 / 1.07) – Consistency Rank: 2
1st half of season consistency rank: 2 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 4
14 games — 312/1557/16 — 54 targets for 44/361/1 — 5 fumbles
Great 50% | Good 93% | Bust 0%
Defenses: -3.14 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.57 fantasy points on average at Home
While he may be the RB3 in the final totals, Cook may have been the best RB in fantasy this season. His consistency was great all season long and he did not Bust in any game. It is likely that Christian McCaffrey, who finished #1 in Consistency in 2020, is the 1.01 next year, but Cook might make a push for the spot and is in the lead to be most league’s 1.02 in 2021. The Vikings did lose Gary Kubiak, and that could mean a change that could hurt the run game for Minnesota next season.
4. David Montgomery (ADP: RB28 / 5.12) – Consistency Rank: 10
1st half of season consistency rank: 21 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 5
15 games — 247/1070/8 — 68 targets for 54/438/2 — 1 fumble
Great 33% | Good 67% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -6.29 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.34 fantasy points on average at Home
Montgomery at RB4 is a shock and one of the best values from 2020’s fantasy drafts. He was carried here by his final six games, where he never finished worse than RB9 and played an absolute gift of a schedule. To be fair, he was recovering from a late preseason groin injury during the season’s first month, so that can’t all be held against him. Overall, Montgomery certainly looked better than he did as a rookie. The concern is that this finish will inflate his ADP next season and Montgomery will be a riskier prospect in 2021.
5. Aaron Jones (ADP: RB14 / 2.04) – Consistency Rank: 4
1st half of season consistency rank: 4 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 8
14 games — 201/1104/9 — 63 targets for 47/355/2 — 2 fumbles
Great 21% | Good 79% | Bust 0%
Defenses: -1.26 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.16 fantasy points on average at Home
The biggest questions surrounding Aaron Jones will be about where he is playing in 2021. The usage in Green Bay made him a tough player to trust every week. He had to be hyper-efficient because they were keeping Jamaal Williams involved and it was just a matter of time before AJ Dillon started to steal some work. Every time AJ Dillon ran, it seemed less likely that Jones would be back in Green Bay and that puts next season in a murky territory while you wait to see where he goes.
6. Jonathan Taylor (ADP: RB18 / 3.04) – Consistency Rank: 9
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 6
15 games — 232/1169/11 — 39 targets for 36/299/1 — 1 fumble
Great 20% | Good 73% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -8.61 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.45 fantasy points on average at Home
Taylor, like David Montgomery, really helped his final season rank over the last month. There was a three-game stretch where some fantasy managers were starting to worry that Taylor would not come to fruition. He certainly quieted those doubts in the end and it will be interesting to see how the Colts rely on him next season. Will they bring Marlon Mack back? Who will play QB? While nobody will be questioning JTT heading into next season, there will be plenty of questions about Indianapolis. The loss of Philip Rivers almost guarantees that he will see fewer targets but will the carry count go up? That will determine his value in 2021.
7. James Robinson (NA) – Consistency Rank: 8
1st half of season consistency rank: 9 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 7
14 games — 240/1070/7 — 60 targets for 49/344/3 — 3 fumbles
Great 21% | Good 71% | Bust 0%
Defenses: -2.99 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -.64 fantasy points on average at Home
Robinson was the biggest surprise of 2020 at RB. He was an undrafted rookie that was also undrafted in fantasy football and went on to be a potential league winner. He was the Waiver Wire Wonder! He benefitted from being the only working part of this offense in 2020 and that is likely to change in 2021. A new head coach and the (likely) addition of Trevor Lawrence should mean a very new look for Jacksonville and a dip in volume for Robinson next season.
8. Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB9 / 1.10) – Consistency Rank: 14
1st half of season consistency rank: 18 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 16
15 games — 273/1065/12 — 45 targets for 33/238/0 — 2 fumbles
Great 20% | Good 60% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -2.99 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.3 fantasy points on average at Home
It was a little bit of everything for Jacobs in 2020. He had nine games where you were very happy you played him, but no top-8 RB had as many Bust games as Jacobs. He wasn’t as involved in the passing game as fantasy managers would have hoped but he saw a ton of carries. He was as game-flow dependent as any RB in the league. There were weeks when the Raiders just didn’t show up and that killed Jacobs more than a few times. To make matters worse, Jon Gruden only playing him about 50% of the snaps most weeks makes him impossible to trust. Not to mention: his IG troll of fantasy managers left a very bad taste in many fantasy managers mouths. His ADP is likely to fall but he will be hard to target in drafts next season.