Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 16
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
We made it! Welcome to championship week! Hopefully, most of you are in the finals competing for a #FootclanTitle.
Even with only a week left in the fantasy football season, the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Try a New Dynasty Format
For this week’s segment, I wanted to encourage you to venture out of your comfort zone by trying a new format of dynasty this coming off-season. Whether you are a long-time dynasty player or brand new to the format, there are so many ways to improve and add on to the dynasty football experience. Below are a few types of dynasty leagues that I would recommend:
- SuperFlex: Most of you are likely familiar with this format. But if you are still in a 1QB dynasty league, I would highly recommend upgrading to a SuperFlex league. Because QBs are that much more valuable in this format, it makes dynasty football that much more exciting, especially in your rookie draft.
- Devy: Do you enjoy watching and researching college football? If so, then a Devy League might be the right dynasty format for you. In Devy leagues, you draft prospects (or developmental players) well before they enter the NFL. Once drafted they can either be traded or stashed away in a taxi squad until they are eligible for your dynasty roster. It makes dynasty trading and roster management that much more challenging when college players are included.
- Individual Defensive Players (IDP): If you want a more holistic dynasty football experience, I would recommend trying IDP. This format allows you to draft and play defensive players, such as Aaron Donald or Jamal Adams. One of my absolute favorite scoring formats is IDP123, created by Jordan Rains. It simplifies and equalizes IDP and PPR scoring so that defensive impact plays (sacks, interceptions, tackles, etc.) are just as valuable as receptions, yards, and offensive touchdowns. In other words, on any given week, T.J. Watt can score 20+ points, competing with the likes of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey.
If you are interested in any of these league formats, I would recommend using the #FootclanLeagues Community Forum to join or start a new dynasty league this off-season!
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up
Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns, RB
Entering the season, Nick Chubb had plenty of dynasty managers worried after Kareen Hunt signed his extension earlier in September. What many feared to be a running back committee turned into an offense that, on most weeks, could sustain two fantasy-relevant RBs. Regardless of Hunt’s undeniable talent, Chubb has been the more consistent and productive fantasy RB this season. When both players were active this year, Chubb has finished as a PPR RB1 in 60% of his games, while Hunt eclipsed the RB1 mark only twice (20%). So while this backfield is certainly trending to be an RBBC going forward, Chubb is still the clear-cut lead RB for this team.
From an efficiency standpoint, Chubb has proven that he belongs with some of the best RBs in the league. In fact, PlayerProfiler currently has Chubb leading all running backs in yards created per touch (3.18), juke rate (37.5%), and breakaway run rate (7.3%), proving just how elusive and effective he can be as a rusher. But despite being one of the best RBs in the league, Chubb continues to be undervalued as his dynasty ADP is trending in the low RB1/high RB2 range. As a dynasty manager, I would capitalize on the lower ADP as I expect Chubb to continue to dominate for fantasy as he enters a contract year in 2021.
Stock Down
Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers, QB
Ben Roethlisberger entered this year with some uncertainty after missing most of last season due to a right elbow injury. And while he had a few impressive fantasy performances earlier this year, he has finished as a QB2 or worse in 78.6% of his games (11 total). What has been most worrisome is his lack of accuracy. Per NextGenStats, Big Ben currently ranks as the QB32 in completion rate above expected with -2.1, behind quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, and Alex Smith. Furthermore, his deep ball completion rate (25.4%) ranks 33rd, while his clean pocket completion rate (68.7%) ranks 34th this season. His inaccuracy has been extremely glaring these last couple of games as he has finished with season-lows in yards per attempt and completion rate against Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Ben Roethlisberger on 10+ yard throws last 4 games:
🔸 14-44
🔸 277 yards
🔸 2 TDs
🔸 3 INTspic.twitter.com/BNRjGn4z4i— PFF (@PFF) December 22, 2020
While Roethlisberger’s dead cap will be lower in 2021, I do not expect the Steelers to move on from him quite yet. However, I would not be surprised if they either traded for or drafted a QB, especially in this deep 2021 class. As a result, Ben’s dynasty stock, even in a SuperFlex league, is slowly declining. So for fantasy managers relying on him in their starting lineups, this might be the off-season to invest in a replacement for when Roethlisberger likely retires in one or two seasons.
Stock Up
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans, RB
Derrick Henry, also known as Derrick Yeti this time of the season, has been on an absolutely dominant run (no pun intended) these past couple of weeks. Since week 14, Henry has totaled 362 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on only 50 attempts. That makes him the RB1 in that timespan, carrying plenty of fantasy managers into their championship games. This should not come as a surprise as Henry has become one of the most prolific rushers in the league. In fact, since becoming the starter in 2018, Henry has had 8 games with at least 150 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Over the last 20 years, here are the RBs that have had more games meeting that same criterion:
- LaDanian Tomlinson (16)
- Adrian Peterson (15)
- Shaun Alexander (9)
- Larry Johnson (9)
Henry has shown us that he has the ability to win fantasy managers a matchup on any given week. And considering the stable ecosystem that he currently has in Tennessee – with Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and the majority of his offensive line signed for the foreseeable future – I expect Henry to continue to produce RB1 numbers. For a contender, he should remain a cornerstone of their fantasy roster for at least another year. But for rebuilding teams, now might be the time to move Henry as his value is likely at its peak as he approaches his 6th season in the league.
Stock Down
Phillip Lindsay – Denver Broncos, RB
Entering the 2020 season, there were plenty of question marks surrounding the Broncos backfield that featured three intriguing running backs. Phillip Lindsay was regarded by some as the more talented runner over Melvin Gordon, so there was some hope for Lindsay to remain the leader of this backfield. However, when both players have been healthy (9 games), we have seen Gordon receive the majority of the workload, averaging 44% of the team’s rush attempts compared to Lindsay’s 36%.
The most significant difference between the two RBs has been their red zone opportunity and efficiency. This season, according to FantasyData, Gordon has received 1.84 red zone touches per game, converting those into 8 touchdowns. Lindsay, on the other hand, has only averaged 0.72 red zone touches per game with zero touchdowns. As a result, Gordon is currently the RB21 in PPR points per game, while Lindsay is on pace to finish as the RB66. Unfortunately, despite Lindsay’s stellar start to his career, this will remain an RBBC going forward. Therefore, Lindsay will be nothing more than a high-end backup with weekly RB4 or RB5 production, severely limiting his dynasty upside.
Stock Up
Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans, WR
Slotting in as the WR1 for Marcus Mariota, Davis was immediately considered as a top 15 dynasty WR after being selected with the 5th pick in the first round of the 2017 draft. In fact, his ADP peaked as the WR13 by the end of his rookie season but has since dropped to WR50 after the emergence of A.J. Brown. After three years of waiting for that breakout season, Davis is currently on pace to finish the year with career highs in receiving yards, touchdowns, and receptions. And for fantasy, he has quietly produced as the WR17 in PPR points per game (15.4), finishing as a top 24 receiver in 41.7% of his games. While he has not been as consistent as A.J. Brown, he has been a flex-worthy start most weeks.
Heading into the 2021 off-season, Davis now approaches free agency after the Titans declined his 5th-year option. If he remains with Tennessee, especially with how well Ryan Tannehill has played, I expect Davis to remain a flex WR most weeks. However, as we approach the off-season, Davis could be a sneaky trade target as his value could increase significantly if he were to land on a team that would offer him more targets.
Bonus: College Prospect Evaluation
Javonte Williams – North Carolina Tar Heels, RB
While Travis Etienne and Najee Harris are the two big names coming out of this 2021 RB class, Javonte Williams, Junior out of North Carolina, is a player to keep an eye on. Throughout the majority of his career, he has split carries with his fellow UNC running mate Michael Carter, who has been fairly productive himself. In fact, two weeks ago against Miami, Williams and Carter combined for 544 rushing yards, which would be a single-game record by two teammates in NCAA history. Statistically, Javonte Williams has been extremely productive for that backfield this season. While Williams trails Carter slightly in scrimmage yards (1,445 compared to Carter’s 1,512), Williams leads the team with 22 total touchdowns. Furthermore, Williams’ junior year is currently the highest graded RB season (94.1) since 2014, per PFF.
Highest-graded RB seasons since 2014:
1. Javonte Williams ('20) – 94.1
2. Kareem Hunt ('16) – 93.2
3. Ronald Jones ('17) – 93.1
4. James Conner ('14) – 92.7
5. Jonathan Taylor ('18) – 92.2 pic.twitter.com/cvB2078usg— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 15, 2020
What I love about Williams’ game is his physicality and ability to absorb contact. Measuring at 5’10” and 220 lbs, he is not an easy RB to tackle. What has been very apparent in his film is that Williams does an outstanding job of keeping his feet moving through contact while maintaining balance, consistently breaking tackles, and gaining additional yards. But despite his physical running style, he does not rely on that entirely. He is a very patient runner, allowing his blocking to develop before accelerating forward. So while he does not possess the top-end speed and explosiveness of an Etienne or Harris, his vision and ability to run through traffic is what makes Williams such an intriguing RB. In addition, he is also a solid pass protector and capable receiver, which profiles him as a potential 3-down running back at the next level.
NFL Draft Projection: Late 2nd Round
Fantasy Rookie Draft Projection (1QB/1TE): Late 1st Round