Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 14
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will continue to fluctuate as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of your team’s short and long-term outlook. Therefore, each week I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle. In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, you will also find an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (market share, red-zone stats, etc.) along with either a 2022 prospect breakdown, a dynasty strategy discussion, or a player to stash for the future.
Let’s dive in!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 13
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance and usage from this past week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is a value calculated based on a player’s usage in their offense. The more high-value opportunities they receive (deep targets, red-zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected and signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value.
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well.
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
A Few Rookie Observations from Week 13:
- The Javonte Williams breakout: He finished the week as the RB2 in Expected Fantasy points (29.1) and RB1 in total PPR points (29.8). More details on his breakout game in the Dynasty Stock Report below
- The Wilson and Elijah connection was extremely productive this week as both finished within the top-5 in expected fantasy points at their respective positions. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come for the Jets
- Kylen Granson, Colts rookie TE, received two targets – both of which were in the red zone. He converted those opportunities into only 1.6 PPR points (7.2 below expected)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown set a career-high with 22.1 expected fantasy points and a 32% target share (12 total). He also scored his first touchdown this season, leading to a positive FPOE of +2.7
2022 Prospect Breakdown
Treylon Burks – Arkansas WR
The 2022 wide receiver class is shaping up to be a very talented group, and Treylon Burks out of Arkansas might just be the top wide receiver prospect entering the NFL draft. When you watch Burks on the field, his size and speed combination will immediately catch your eye. At 6’3” and 225 lbs, you have a player who possesses the physical attributes of a true WR1. Though he has the size of a prototypical outside receiver, Burks actually lived and thrived in the slot throughout his college career. He did, however, occasionally line up outside while frequently being used in motion. Regardless of where he was on the field, his elite speed and burst are what allowed him to win consistently at the line of scrimmage and at the top of his routes. And with the ball in his hands, Burks was a menace in the open field, leveraging his deceptive acceleration to erase angles and break tackles consistently.
From a production standpoint, Burks has shown continuous improvement in his 3-year college career. Breaking out in his true freshman season, Burks accounted for 24% of his team’s receiving yards in 11 games. As a result, per PlayerProfiler, his breakout age of 19.5 ranks in the 79th percentile. His Sophomore campaign would be his first truly dominant season as he nearly doubled his overall production from his freshman year. He averaged 91.1 receiving yards per game in 2020, which equated to an impressive 39% receiving yards market share. Furthermore, after not scoring a single time in 2019, Burks accounted for 44% of Arkansas’s receiving touchdowns as a Sophomore. But even after setting the bar extremely high in his second season, his 2021 campaign was even more impressive. In 12 games this season, Burks averaged 93.6 receiving yards (41% MS) and 0.9 receiving touchdowns (51% MS). This equates to a 46.3% receiving dominator rating, which is about a four percentage point increase from his Sophomore season. In other words, Burks’ age-adjusted production is exactly what we want to see from a wide receiver prospect. Not only did he produce early, but he continued to dominate against high-end competition while operating as the centerpiece of the Arkansas offense. And assuming he does receive first-round draft capital, Burks has a very strong case to be the WR1 of the 2022 rookie class.
Dynasty Stock Report
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens, TE
For the last couple of years, dynasty managers have enjoyed a consistent trio of elite tight ends in George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller. However, Mark Andrews has been similarly productive this season, making the case that he should belong in that same tier in our dynasty rankings. In 12 games this season, Andrews is the TE3 in PPR points per game (15.1) behind only Kelce and Rob Gronkowski. He has also finished as a TE1 in seven games while ranking within the top-6 50% of the time. What has allowed him to produce at such an elite level is his volume, leading all tight ends in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR – 0.54), even after the Ravens stocked up at wide receiver this off-season. And as you can see below, Andrews has consistently been in the right quadrants of my fantasy usage chart, hovering around an impressive 15 – 20 expected PPR points most weeks.
And while his target share this season (23.7%) is surprisingly not a career-high, Andrews is benefiting from a more pass-heavy Ravens offense. If we exclude garbage time and the final two minutes of each half, the Ravens are actually 12th in the league this year in early-down passing rate at 54%. This equates to roughly a 10 percentage point increase from last season when the Ravens averaged a 43.6% rate (31st in the league). So while his market share numbers are slightly down from the last two seasons, the added receiving opportunities in this offense have allowed Andrews to elevate his overall production. Going forward, at only 25 years old, I expect him to continue to provide dynasty managers with consistent production for several more years. And after recently signing an extension, making him the 4th highest paid TE in the league, Andrews should be locked in as Lamar Jackson’s number one target through the 2025 season.
Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos, WR
There was a time this season when dynasty managers were offered a glimmer of hope that Sutton could once again be a top-24 wide receiver. From weeks 2 to 6, Sutton finished as a WR1 in three of five games. In that time span, he was the WR8 in target share at 28.1% and the WR4 in air yards share at 46.9%. All signs pointed to a very productive season, albeit without Jerry Jeudy in the lineup. However, from weeks 7 to 13 – which included the return of Jeudy – Sutton’s volume has taken a drastic decline. In the last seven games, Sutton has averaged a measly 3.8 targets per game for only a 13.1% target share. And as you can see below, his expected fantasy value has taken a sharp decline as a result. Therefore, Sutton would have likely lost you multiple matchups if you started him in your lineup, only ranking as the WR86 in PPR points per game since week 7.
It’s hard to fully blame Sutton for his decline in production as he currently plays for a team that ranks 22nd in the league in early-down passing rate at only 49.7%. As a result, none of the Denver receivers currently rank within the top-36 in PPR scoring. And while Teddy Bridgewater does rank as the 9th most efficient quarterback in completion percentage over expected (+3.3), he is only the QB26 in average depth of target at 6.5. In other words, Bridgewater is capping the upside of this offense by not leveraging the downfield explosiveness of Jeudy and Sutton. The hope is that Denver will address their issues at the quarterback position this coming off-season. But until that happens, Sutton’s upside will remain limited even after signing a four-year contract extension that links him to Denver through the 2025 season.
Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos, RB
A few weeks ago, ahead of your dynasty trade deadlines, I had mentioned Javonte Williams as a potential trade target due to Melvin Gordon’s pending free agency. While he was already valued as a top-20 RB for dynasty, his ADP was bound to sky-rocket as soon as Gordon was no longer in the picture. And up until their bye week, Javonte’s rookie season was mostly unexciting. In their first 10 games, he trailed Gordon in opportunity share, scrimmage yards, and PPR points, which had dynasty managers wondering if they had to wait a full year before his breakout. However, due to a pair of hip and shoulder injuries suffered in week 12, Gordon was sidelined this past week, paving the way for Javonte to lead the backfield. And in his first stint as the lead running back, he did not disappoint. Against the Chiefs, Javonte ranked as the:
- RB4 in Team Opportunity Share (47.8%)
- RB2 in Target Share (25%)
- RB9 in Route Participation (63.6%)
- RB2 in Expected Fantasy Points (29.1)
- RB1 in PPR Points (29.8)
It was a complete game for the rookie out of UNC who was used in a variety of ways in the Broncos offense. Going forward, it is yet to be determined if Williams will retain the starting role. While he certainly deserves the larger workload, the Broncos may continue to rely on Gordon when he returns healthy. But if Denver decides to pass the torch to Javonte, he could become a potential league winner as the Broncos have the 2nd best schedule for running backs through the fantasy playoffs. As for his dynasty value, do not be surprised if Javonte’s ADP rises into the top-12 at the running back position by next season. Because if Gordon does decide to leave the Mile High City, Javonte might just be a weekly RB1 for fantasy for years to come.
Terrace Marshall Jr. – Carolina Panthers, WR
After a relatively quiet freshman season at LSU, Terrace Marshall Jr. had a tremendous two-year run from 2019 and 2020. In that timespan, he accounted for roughly 33.5% of LSU’s receiving production, while totaling 1,402 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns in only 19 games. Combine that with his 2nd round draft capital, and it should not come as a surprise that Marshall was beloved in the dynasty community. However, his rookie season has been far from productive as he has struggled to command consistent volume in an offense that boasts multiple talented pieces at running back and wide receiver. In nine games this season, Marshall has exceeded 25 receiving yards only twice while averaging a 4.5% target share in the Panthers’ offense. And while he did suffer a concussion that held him out for two games, Marshall was most recently a healthy scratch in week 12, playing behind both Alex Erickson and Brandon Zylstra.
Dynasty managers should be rightfully worried since a quiet rookie season drastically diminishes the likelihood for success going forward. However, we still have five games left in the regular season and the Panthers are now coming off their bye week. In addition, offensive coordinator Joe Brady was surprisingly released over the weekend, which could mean that changes are on the horizon for this offense. So if your trade deadline has not passed yet, I would reach out to the Marshall dynasty manager to see if they are willing to part with the rookie receiver as a discount. Hopefully, this bye week signals a turning point for Marshall so that we finally get to see the receiver that dominated at LSU last year.