Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 11
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will continue to fluctuate as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of your team’s short and long-term outlook. Therefore, each week I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle. In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, you will also find an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (market share, red-zone stats, etc.) along with one of the following segments:
- Dynasty Strategy
- 2022 Prospect Breakdowns
- Dynasty Stashes
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 10
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance and usage for the past week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is a value calculated based on a player’s usage in their offense. The more high-value opportunities they receive (deep targets, red-zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected and signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value.
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well.
If there are specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
A Few Rookie Observations from Week 10:
- While I do not expect Mac Jones to be this efficient every week, he finished +9.0 points above expected (QB2) with only 23 passing attempts
- Rhamondre Stevenson received 8 red-zone opportunities, filling in for Damien Harris. His expected value of 28.5 PPR points ranked RB4 this week
- Michael Carter continues to impress for fantasy (17.5 expected points), receiving 73% of the Jets’ rushing attempts and 13% of their targets
- Despite his costly fumble, the Muth continues to trend in the right direction, ranking as the TE1 in week 10 with 16.8 expected PPR points
- With Ja’Marr Chase on bye, Rashod Bateman led all rookies in usage with 12.2 expected PPR points
- DeVonta Smith finished 4th among wide receivers in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+11.2), scoring two touchdowns on only 6 targets
Dynasty Strategy: Capitalize on Undervalued ADP
Dynasty managers should always be ahead of the masses, capitalizing on temporary dips in dynasty value. With the trade deadline coming up in most of your dynasty leagues, I wanted to highlight a couple of players who I believe are currently undervalued based on where I think their ADP will be in a year from now. Admittedly, this segment might be more beneficial for rebuilding teams as most of the players listed below provide very little value to contenders. Keep in mind that the cost to acquire these players will vary from league to league. If you have to pay max value to trade for them, I would likely stay away. However, if you can capitalize on their undervalued ADP (likely due to injury, lack of opportunities, etc.), I would absolutely target them ahead of your league’s deadline.
The most undervalued trade targets are usually on injured reserve. These players are generally forgotten about during the season and offer very little value to championship contenders. Players that come to mind are Travis Etienne, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Irv Smith Jr., and D.J. Chark. Dobbins is especially intriguing after seeing the Ravens rely on three running backs ages 29 or older while having very little success in the running game. As a result, Dobbins’ role as the lead RB in this offense should be secure provided he returns fully healthy from his ACL injury. Etienne is another intriguing player due to his impressive college profile and first-round draft capital. There are many questions surrounding that team, but it would not surprise if Etienne carves out a meaningful role by the end of 2022. Per Matthew Betz and our UDK, most players returning from a Lisfranc injury usually see a dip in production in their first season back. Therefore, dynasty managers will need to be patient with Etienne’s return. With each of these players, it’s especially important to track their recovery status so be sure to follow our injury analyst Matthew Betz on Twitter (@TheFantasyPT) for up-to-date analysis all year round.
Finally, I want to mention two players who have had a quiet 2021 season, though I expect them to gain (or regain their) dynasty value by the end of the 2022 campaign: Javonte Williams and Calvin Ridley. Regarding Ridley’s status, I want to point out that whatever he is dealing with comes first. Mental health matters and is way more important than football. From a fantasy perspective, Ridley – at 26 years old – should still be considered a dynasty WR1. Since there is a possibility he is out for the rest of the year, a contender might be interested in trading him away for immediate production. Javonte Williams on the other hand is set to assume the RB1 role next year, as Melvin Gordon is unlikely to return to Denver in free agency. Therefore, as a rebuilding team, now is the time to trade for him before his ADP skyrockets. If you can trade away an older running back like Ezekiel Elliott or Dalvin Cook for Wiliams and a future pick, that is a transaction that could pay dividends long-term.
Dynasty Stock Report
A.J. Dillon – Green Bay Packers, RB
With the recent news that Aaron Jones could miss the next two games, A.J. Dillon is set to be the lead running back for Matt LaFleur’s offense. Keep in mind the Packers also have their bye in week 13, which makes it even more likely that they rest Jones and allow Dillon to lead this backfield for two games. Even prior to Jones’ injury, Dillon was already trending in the right direction, eclipsing the 20% opportunity share mark six times since week 4. From a usage standpoint, in that same timespan, Dillon has finished within the top-36 in expected fantasy points in five games even with Jones in the lineup. Of course, week 10 was by far his most productive game, finishing the week as the RB6 in expected fantasy points (25.1), RB11 in Opportunity Share (34.8%), and the RB2 in Red-Zone Opportunities (10). The expanded workload led to an RB3 finish with 26.8 PPR points.
In fact, the last time Dillon operated as the lead running back with both Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones unavailable he was similarly productive. In week 16 of his rookie season, he received 22 opportunities against Tennessee and ranked as the RB6 with 25.9 PPR points. While I do not expect Dillon to always be that efficient, I do think he provides dynasty managers with RB1 upside and a safe RB2 floor. From a dynasty perspective, this could be a preview of what’s to come beyond 2022. As of right now, Jones’ contract could save the Packers upwards of $12 million a year starting in 2023, if he were to be released after next season. That could leave Dillon as the unquestioned RB1 for the Packers’ offense entering a contract year in 2023. So while he remains behind Jones for the foreseeable future, there is a scenario where Dillon could seize the lead role permanently.
Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams, WR
With the Odell Beckham Jr. signing, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay seemingly had the most dangerous passing offense in the league. However, on Friday, they took a significant hit as Robert Woods suffered a torn ACL during practice and is set to miss the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, Woods’ campaign is ending just as he was turning his season around. He started his 2021 campaign with four straight games finishing outside of the top-24. However, over his last five games, Woods was the WR11 in PPR points per game (18.2), WR20 in Yards per Team Pass Attempt (2.01), and the WR15 in Opportunity Share (14.9%). As you can see below, his best game was week 5 against Seattle, finishing as the WR8 with 27 PPR points and 4.5 points above expected.
Long-term, Woods should be ready for the 2022 season, though his role will be something to monitor as he approaches age 30. It will also be interesting to see how the Los Angeles Rams navigate their cap situation. As of right now, they are ranked 27th in the league in available cap space entering 2022 with several key free agents set to hit the market. Matthew Stafford will need to be extended as well. Keep in mind that Woods’ contract could save the Rams at least $10 million per year starting in 2022 if they decide to move on. While I doubt that happens next year (with a dead cap of $5.7 million), this scenario becomes more realistic starting in 2023. If Van Jefferson continues to progress, I would not be surprised if the Rams move on from Woods within the next couple of seasons, severely hurting his already declining dynasty value.
Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, RB
After being drafted with the 4th overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Leonard Fournette entered the league with extremely high expectations. Despite having to deal with inconsistencies at the quarterback position thanks to Blake Bortles and Gardner Minshew, the former LSU Tiger was fairly productive from a fantasy perspective in his time as a Jaguar. While he did miss some time due to injuries, not once did Fournette have a season in which he averaged less than 15 PPR points per game in his first three years. His 2019 campaign was by far his most impressive as he averaged 41% of the team’s opportunities and 19% of their targets through 15 games. But after the team decided to “Tank for Trevor,” Fournette was released and found a new home with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers prior to the 2020 season. His first year with Tampa Bay, however, was far from consistent or productive as he finished outside of the top-24 in 69.2% of his games. We did see glimpses of his upside as he was often involved in the receiving game while continuing to split rushing duties with Ronald Jones.
This season, however, the Buccanneers seem to be fully committed to Fournette. After a slower start in his first three games, he has been an RB1 for fantasy since week 4 heavily driven by a balanced workload in the rushing and receiving game. In his past six games, Fournette ranks as the RB5 in rushing share (61.1%), RB10 in Target Share (14.1%), and RB6 in Routes Run per game (23.5). From a fantasy perspective, he is the RB11 over the last 7 weeks, scoring an average of 18.2 PPR points. Long-term, his value is somewhat in flux as he will be a pending free agent after this season. However, based on the production and the connection he has established with Brady, I would not be surprised if Tampa Bay extends him beyond this year. For now, I view Fournette as a borderline RB2 for dynasty with upside for more if he receives a new contract.
A few weeks ago I wrote about Michael Pittman Jr. and his ascent as Carson Wentz’s primary target. As a result, T.Y. Hilton has seen his dynasty stock steadily decline, missing a total of 7 games due to a variety of neck, quad, and head injuries. In the three games he was active (leaving two early), he has seen a total of 14 targets for only 101 receiving yards. Even in their most recent game against the Jaguars, Hilton was tied for 2nd on the team in targets (5) yet only produced 5 receiving yards on 1 reception. The caveat to his performance this season is that we have yet to see him fully healthy for more than a one-game stretch, giving him very few opportunities to establish a connection with his new quarterback. Hilton will undoubtedly have his explosive games down the line, due to his ability to break a single reception for a long touchdown. However, with Pittman becoming the team’s WR1 and the running backs assuming a more prominent role in the passing game, I would be extremely surprised if the Colts re-sign Hilton this off-season considering there are plenty of more effective options in the draft and free agency.