Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 8
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 7’s results:
|Josh Jacobs||Top 10 RB||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|Michael Pittman Jr.||5 receptions|
|Ryan Tannehill||3+ TDs||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|DeAndre Hopkins||74 receiving yards|
|D.K. Metcalf||75 receiving yards|
|Darrell Henderson||1 TD|
|2021 Overall||47% (8/17)||60% (12/20)||60% (12/20)||60% (25/42)|
Rough week for everybody not named Andy…
Andy, Jason, and I got a bit lucky as Josh Jacobs exited early – Jacobs was already RB18 while playing significantly less than a full game. Also, we all should have looked at the weather report before picking the Pittman line because the rain clearly affected the Indy passing game. Lastly, Tannehill didn’t quite hit three TDs because Derrick Henry threw for a touchdown pass, taking that stat away from Tannehill. Still, the process of assuming King Henry would contribute to touchdown scoring was correct, just not his typical manner.
I performed atrociously in my Bonus Buy/Sell. I was shocked to see DeAndre Hopkins only accumulate 53 receiving yards on 7 catches. His 7.57 yards per catch well below his season average, so that’s a bit unlucky. Speaking of unlucky, D.K. Metcalf only caught two passes, but still somehow exceeded 75 yards receiving. Finally, while I was correct that the Rams would have no trouble scoring on Detroit, Cooper Kupp just didn’t feel like sharing any of the touchdown scoring with Mr. Henderson. The process for these three picks was sound even in hindsight, but the casino isn’t paying out for good process. Gotta do better!
Week 8 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “2nd Half Sleepers + TNF Preview, Doubling Down”.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) vs. NE – Top 18 WR
Andy “smashed buy” after finding confidence in the Chargers off the bye and at home. Jason chose to sell because he doesn’t trust Allen to get a touchdown. Finally, Mike debated whether the #1 weapon on the Chargers is Mike Williams or Keenan Allen because Bill Belichick is known to take away the opposing team’s top option. Mike decided that Mike Williams would be the option Bill will look to stop, meaning he bought Allen getting into the top 18.
Allen only has a single touchdown on the year, and I think Jason is right that Allen will need to score a touchdown to ensure a position in the top-18. I don’t love Keenan’s ability near the goal-line, so I too will sell.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT) @ CLE – 70+ receiving yards
Mike bought noting Claypool’s ability to rest and heal up off the bye. Jason bet on Claypool’s talent and also bought. Finally, Andy sold given the road matchup against Cleveland and Ben’s lack of consistent deep throwing.
I will sell. The Steelers offensive line troubles are only going to get worse with Myles Garrett chasing down Big Ben. I think frequent underneath throws to Dionte Johnson and Najee Harris prevent a big game for Claypool.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL) vs. MIN – 5+ receptions
Jason bought, noting that Cooper’s pre-Bye injures limited him, but, now that Cooper has had the bye week to recovery, he will hit five receptions. Andy and Mike both bought as well. This game has the potential to be a shootout, so I too will buy.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Chase Edmunds (RB, ARI) vs. GB – 36 rushing yards
This line is very surprising and, in my opinion, way too low. Last week, Edmonds had 15 rushes for 81 yards operating in his typical role (70% of the snaps). Game script certainly helped, as Arizona had no trouble defeating Houston. But to suggest that game script accounted for more than 50% of his rushing yards is crazy. Edmonds should have no trouble reaching 36 rushing yards on Thursday night, even against a much better NFL team.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI) vs. SF – 200 passing yards
Considering how badly I have picked lately in my Bonus Buy or Sell, consider this sell some reverse psychology (Fields is currently sinking my Superflex team). Fields has only thrown for more than 200 yards once this year. The turnovers will likely continue to plague his rookie season, and I think the Bears really like what they have seen out of Khalil Herbert, so I would anticipate a strong reliance on him against San Fran. All told, I am selling 200 passing yards for Fields.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) @ DET – 26 rushing yards
Miles Sanders is unlikely to play, but it appears that the oddsmakers haven’t caught up yet with this news. Gainwell is sure to split time with Boston Scott, but 26 rushing yards is a very low threshold. Gainwell saw only 5 carries last week, all of which happened after Sanders was carted off the field. Gainwell was the first running back to receive a carry after the injury as well. I expect a split backfield in terms of carries, but that should still be plenty to get Gainwell to 26 rushing yards against a very bad rushing defense.